Information on current losses of the Russian Federation due to sanctions as of 11.07.2026.
1. Gasoline production in Russia has fallen to 65% of summer demand after refinery strikes.
– After a series of Ukrainian strikes on refineries, gasoline production in Russia has shrunk to a level that covers only 65% of domestic demand.
– Currently, Russian refineries produce 75-80 thousand tons of gasoline per day, while peak summer consumption demand is 115-120 thousand tons per day. Thus, the deficit reaches 40-45 thousand tons daily, or about 35% of market needs. For comparison, in June this figure was estimated at about 25%.
– The main reason for the production decline was attacks on the largest oil refining enterprises. At the beginning of July, NORSI, the Omsk Refinery — the two largest gasoline producers in Russia with a combined output of about 30 thousand tons per day, as well as the Saratov Refinery, were forced to suspend operations.
– The deficit is partially compensated by imports from Belarus. According to traders, 5-6 thousand tons of gasoline are delivered to Russia daily, with the remaining needs covered by accumulated stocks.
– Many drivers are already reducing the number of trips or avoiding long routes due to multi-hour queues at gas stations and the risk of running out of fuel.
2. Gasoline prices are fueling inflation in Russia.
– Annual inflation in Russia in June accelerated to 6% from 5.3% the previous month amid the fuel crisis. The acceleration of inflation may prompt the Central Bank of Russia to pause the cycle of lowering the key rate at the upcoming meeting. If this happens, it will be the first pause since the start of monetary policy easing in June of last year.
– Additional inflationary pressure is created by the fuel crisis. While gasoline shortages were previously mainly characteristic of the southern regions of Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories, they have now spread to central areas and reached the Far East.
– By the end of June, about 90% of Russian regions had either imposed restrictions on fuel sales or reported supply disruptions.
– According to Rosstat, in June, gasoline was 19.9% more expensive than a year earlier. In July, price increases accelerated: in just the last week, gasoline prices rose by another 2.1%, and diesel fuel by 3.4%.
– The fuel crisis is fueling overall inflation and inflationary expectations. The rise in fuel prices increases business transportation costs, which producers pass on to end consumers.
– June was one of the most challenging months for the Russian economy: gasoline queues covered more than 50 regions, the federal budget deficit reached about 6 trillion rubles, and rising budget costs are exacerbating inflationary pressure.
3. Russia’s revenues from fossil fuel exports in June decreased by 1% compared to May — to 734 million euros per day, even though the physical volumes of supplies increased by 7%.
– This indicates increased price pressure: the increase in exports no longer ensures proportional revenue growth, while problems with oil refining are increasingly affecting the export structure. Revenues from crude oil exports decreased by 8% — to 348 million euros per day, despite a 14% increase in supply volumes.
– The biggest increase in shipments was to Novorossiysk, where they increased by 68%, while through Ust-Luga they decreased by 10%, and through Primorsk by 9%. Revenues from pipeline oil exports also decreased by 10%.
– Revenue from maritime exports of oil products, which were already delivered to port destinations, grew by 14% — to 211 million euros per day, the highest since June 2024.
– At the same time, actual June shipments of oil products from Russian ports fell by 21%, reaching the lowest level since observations began. The current revenue growth has a delayed effect, and in the coming months, export revenue may decrease significantly.
– After a series of strikes on the Tuapse refinery in May, shipments of oil products from the port of Tuapse fell to zero in June. Revenue from LNG exports increased by 9% — to 60 million euros per day, and the physical supply volumes increased by 7%.
– Revenue from pipeline gas decreased by 11% — to 60 million euros per day, while export volumes decreased by 3%. Revenues from coal exports decreased by 2% — to 56 million euros per day, and supply volumes decreased by 3%.
– Despite maintaining high export volumes, Russia is increasingly selling raw materials at lower prices. The decline in oil refining is already impacting the domestic market and poses risks of further reducing revenues from oil product exports.
4. US Senators reached an agreement with the Trump administration to advance an updated bill on sanctions against Russia.
– This was stated by Senators Richard Blumenthal, Lindsey Graham, Jeanne Shaheen, and Roger Wicker. According to them, the bill will soon be submitted for consideration, and its adoption should provide the US President with additional tools to increase economic pressure on Moscow.
– The document provides for sanctions against countries that continue to buy Russian oil and natural gas, thus financing the Russian military machine.
– Lindsey Graham, who was visiting Kyiv and met with President Volodymyr Zelensky, stated that the White House supported the agreed version of the bill, significantly increasing the chances of its adoption.
– However, the implementation of the bill may be complicated by the global oil market situation. After the escalation in the Middle East, Washington has already had to consider risks of rising oil prices, which may affect the pace of new restrictions being introduced.
5. After Ukrainian drone attacks, Russia suspended shipping through the Azov-Don Canal, which connects the Don River with the Sea of Azov.
– The decision was made after attacks on 13 Russian ships in the Sea of Azov, including ten tankers. It is estimated that up to 25% of Russian wheat exports pass through the Sea of Azov. The Russian border service has stopped accepting applications for ship passage through the Kerch Strait, which connects the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. The timeline for lifting the restrictions has not been announced.
– On the coast of the Sea of Azov are located two of Russia’s largest grain-producing regions — Rostov Oblast and Krasnodar Krai. In the Kerch Strait area is also the second largest Russian port of the Black Sea basin.
