Viktoria Prysedzka, BBC News Ukraine
The series of drone attacks on at least seven cargo ships in the Black Sea near the coasts of NATO members Romania and Bulgaria may be an attempt by Vladimir Putin to test the alliance’s readiness.
This is reported by Western publications, including Associated Press and Financial Times.
This month, at least seven ships came under attack, resulting in deaths and missing persons.
Western officials suspect Russia, but there is no definitive evidence of its direct involvement yet.
The incidents pose questions for the alliance on how to protect shipping and respond to increasingly frequent air and maritime space violations of member countries.
Incidents in the Black Sea
On Thursday, October 15, a drone struck the chemical tanker Wine Trader flying the flag of San Marino, which was heading from Tunisia to Romania.
A fire broke out onboard. Five crew members were rescued, and seven more went missing.
The day before, a drone attacked the tanker Yara J, which was traveling from Turkey to Romania.
On Tuesday, two more ships were attacked off the coast of Bulgaria. All 15 crew members of the vessel Chelsea 3, operated by Ukraine, were evacuated.
Meanwhile, 11 crew members of the ship HS Dignity are still considered missing.
Earlier this month, a Togo-flagged ship sank in the Bulgarian economic zone due to drone attacks, with reports indicating 12 sailors were onboard.
Another damaged ship was evacuated with the help of a Bulgarian ferry. Separately, a Turkish cargo ship with grain sank off the coast of Romania: two people died, and 11 crew members were rescued.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the latest incident a “horrific strike by two Russian drones on a civilian vessel” in neutral waters.
Suspicions Fall on Russia
Suspicions fall on Russia, but evidence is lacking, writes AP.
Romanian President Nicușor Dan stated that two drones struck ships but did not specify their ownership. He warned that the Romanian state would respond to the incidents.
Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev told parliament that it makes no sense for Ukraine to attack its own ships and crews, as the consequences of such strikes benefit Russia.
At the same time, he acknowledged that proving Moscow’s involvement is currently impossible.
“This is certainly an escalation that has been ongoing over the past month in western Russia and in the Black Sea,” FT quotes former Romanian Navy Admiral and military analyst Sandu Valentin Mateiu.
According to him, the attacks violate international maritime law and disregard stringent restrictions on attacks on civilian ships.
Drone attacks have spread from waters near Odesa to Romania’s economic zone, ships near Bulgaria heading to Romania, and finally—to the country’s territorial waters. Mateiu called this a serious violation of a NATO state’s sovereignty.
Thomas Alexa, a maritime security analyst at the consulting company Ambrey, noted in a comment to FT that attacks on vessels in NATO waters create an additional and significant level of threat to shipping in the region.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has regularly attacked Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea and Danube.
As a result, Ukraine is increasingly reliant on alternative grain export routes to African and Middle Eastern countries. Russian drones have also repeatedly violated Romanian airspace near Ukrainian Danube ports.
Can NATO Respond to the Attacks
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated on Thursday that he discussed security in the Black Sea and recent attacks on commercial vessels with the leaders of Romania and Bulgaria.
“NATO has strengthened its presence on the eastern flank, particularly by enhancing drone countermeasures. The alliance will continue to closely cooperate with allies in the Black Sea region, adjusting deterrence and defense measures as necessary,” he wrote in a post on the X platform.
However, it remains unclear whether NATO’s collective defense guarantees apply to attacks in the exclusive economic zones of its members.
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty stipulates that an armed attack on one ally is considered an attack on all, but, according to Romanian military analyst Radu Tudor, quoted by AP, the application of this principle to such incidents is a matter of discussion.
Tudor believes that NATO is too slow to respond to threats in the Black Sea. According to him, the number of incidents is increasing, and Russia is approaching the alliance’s borders, so statements alone are no longer sufficient.
According to an AP source in the Romanian defense sector, the attacks may primarily aim to weaken the Ukrainian economy, rather than targeting Romania. Meanwhile, drone debris, maritime drones, and other consequences of the attacks have been recorded in the region for several months.
One possible response measure could be a protected corridor for commercial vessels with the involvement of Black Sea states.
According to the AP source, Turkey is interested in gathering regional countries to discuss escorting such convoys.
However, Romania lacks sufficient air defense capabilities on its ships to protect against drones, and military escort of vessels would create additional risks.
In July, Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey expanded cooperation in mine warfare, including tasks to protect critical underwater infrastructure.
Bulgaria also plans to join NATO’s Drone Edge initiative, which involves investing over $40 billion in drone countermeasures over the next five years.
Impact on Trade
Despite the attacks, trade through the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta has not yet experienced negative impacts.
However, according to Cezar George, founder of the consulting company Agricolumn, the main concern is related to the rising cost of ship insurance in the Black Sea.
Vessels heading to Constanta through the Bosphorus may pay more for insurance due to the threat of military attacks.
The greatest concern is the possibility of a serious incident directly in or near the port. In June, a Ukrainian maritime drone exploded at the port, and three more drones were nearby.
Cover image: Eight out of 12 crew members of the vessel Wine Trader are reportedly missing after a fire on board. Photo: Romanian Ministry of Internal Affairs
