In November, Americans will not be electing a president, but the results of the midterm elections could determine how freely Donald Trump can act during the last two years of his second term. At stake is control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, along with the ability of the White House to implement its legislative agenda without significant opposition from Congress.
Republicans currently enter the election campaign with an advantage in both chambers. However, the situation is becoming complicated for them. Trump’s approval rating has dropped to about one-third of voters, while the economy, inflation, and cost of living have become the main sources of American dissatisfaction. In a September poll by the Financial Times, only 33% approved of the president’s performance, while 57% of respondents said they felt financially worse under Trump.
The main intrigue of the election now is not only who will control Congress but also how much Trump can turn the elections into a referendum on himself—and whether such a strategy will backfire on his party.
Trump Makes the Election a Personal Referendum
Midterm elections are traditionally challenging for the president’s party. Historically, voters use them to adjust the power of the White House rather than simply choosing Congress representatives. This trend is particularly dangerous for Trump due to his high level of political polarization and low approval rating.
“US House midterm elections have historically been a referendum on the sitting president, and they generally receive unsatisfactory evaluations. The president’s party has lost seats in 37 of the last 41 midterm elections—beginning in 1862—and in 11 of the last 13. Given that President Donald Trump’s approval rating, depending on which poll you look at, is in the mid to low 30s, Republicans in the House are unlikely to break this historical trend,” notes Tyzhden American political scientist, leading expert on US foreign policy, and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), James M. Lindsay.
At the same time, he notes, midterm elections for the US Senate are generally not a referendum on the president, partly because only a third of the seats are up for reelection in one cycle.
“At the beginning of 2026, Republicans in the Senate had a favorable electoral map. Twenty-one of the 22 Senate seats Republicans defend are in states where Trump won the national vote in 2024. Twenty of them are in states where he won by a margin of ten or more percentage points. The bad news for Republicans, less than two months before election day, is that four of the five states where the most unpredictable races are projected are currently represented by Republicans: Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas. Michigan is the only such state where the seat belongs to Democrats. If Democrats gain a net increase of four seats, they will have a majority in the Senate (51–49) by the next January 3,” notes James M. Lindsay.
Trump himself seems to agree with this interpretation but tries to make it politically advantageous for Republicans. At the Republican Party convention dedicated to the midterm elections, the American president urged voters to act as if he were on the ballot. Trump also tried to shift the campaign’s focus from economic issues to the Democrats, accusing them of high prices.
“Trump is such a major figure in American politics and so involved in the electoral campaign that, to some extent, these elections will be a referendum on him. Voters generally made their choices based on the economy, although other issues, such as the conflict with Iran, may play some role,” says Tyzhden American diplomat with 40 years of experience in the State Department, former U.S. ambassador to Poland, assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, and coordinator of U.S. sanctions policy, currently the Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Daniel Fried.
So despite international crises, the main issue for American voters remains what is happening at home. Pew Research Center polls show that the economy is one of the central issues ahead of the elections, and Americans are almost evenly divided on which party they trust more on economic policy issues: 37% named Democrats and 36% Republicans.
“The economy and the affordability of life are undeniably dominant issues in these elections. Many voters feel that the government is not doing enough to curb the cost of living. The rapid increase in gasoline prices tops the list of complaints,” adds Tyzhden James M. Lindsay.
What will change if Democrats take Congress?
For Democrats, the path to a majority in the House of Representatives is much easier than in the Senate. Reuters estimates that to regain control of the House, Democrats need to gain only three additional seats. Meanwhile, about 50 of the 435 districts are considered competitive, meaning the outcome will depend on a relatively small number of races. In the Senate, the situation is more complicated. Democrats need to gain four seats to form a majority. Now, even states traditionally considered reliable Republican territory are in play.
“A House of Congress controlled by the Democratic Party, especially both chambers, would create obstacles for Trump, providing grounds for hearings and, though it will be a matter of debate, for legislation aiming to limit Trump’s initiatives. Much in foreign policy will depend on whether ‘national security Democrats’ and more ‘McCain-like’ Republicans can work together,” says Daniel Fried.
According to James M. Lindsay, if Democrats gain control of one or both chambers of Congress, it will be challenging for them to implement their legislative agenda—to the extent they can even agree on what they want to achieve. The problem is that passing legislation in the U.S. requires cooperation from the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the president.
“Even if the Democrats take control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, they won’t have enough votes to overcome the inevitable filibuster (a political and parliamentary tactic used by a minority in the legislative body to delay decision-making or entirely block a vote on a bill) in the Senate. Senate Republicans will support President Trump and won’t abandon him. Even if they do abandon him, he can veto legislation he dislikes. Overriding a veto is difficult. What the Democrats can do by gaining control of the House and/or the Senate is block legislation they disapprove of. They will also control what hearings Congress conducts, allowing them to investigate the administration’s actions. Collaboration with these investigations is unlikely, increasing political tension in Washington,” he emphasized to Tyzhden.
Can Congress change U.S. policy towards Ukraine?
In the U.S. presidential system, Congress has significant powers regarding funding, sanctions, and oversight of the executive branch. However, the president remains a key figure in foreign policy. At the same time, these powers give Congress tools to influence Ukraine: lawmakers can determine or restrict funding, pass sanctions legislation, set requirements for the administration, and oversee foreign policy decisions through committees and hearings.
“A divided government (Democrats control one or both houses of Congress, while Republicans control the executive branch) would create a platform for conflict, but President Trump would still try to move forward in any case. Congress would provide more checks on President Trump’s actions. This could include restraining bad ideas concerning Ukraine and possibly offering greater support for Ukraine and NATO security in the face of Russian aggression. But the struggle will continue. The defeat of Republicans in the midterm elections would accelerate the slow decline in the president’s political power during the last two years of Trump’s term,” Daniel Fried emphasized.
According to James M. Lindsey, a Congress controlled by Democrats would not be able to substantially change the direction of U.S. policy towards Ukraine without President Trump’s cooperation.
“Moreover, regarding issues like the current sanctions bill aimed at Russia, Democrats in the House would have strong reasons to oppose the bill in its current form, as it would expand President Trump’s powers to impose tariffs,” he added to Tyzhden.
Therefore, the American midterm elections should be viewed not merely as a “Trump versus Democrats” confrontation but as a struggle over the limits of presidential power. If Republicans maintain both houses, Trump will gain significantly more freedom to pursue his agenda. If Democrats acquire the House, he will face increased oversight, investigations, and blocking of some legislative initiatives. If Democrats acquire both houses, the conflict between Congress and the White House will become even more intense. However, none of these scenarios signifies an automatic reversal of American foreign policy.
Ukraine should also not perceive a possible victory for the Democrats as a return to the previous model of American politics. Even if they control Congress, Trump will remain president until January 2029. At the same time, the new majority could create an additional channel of influence on American politics for Kyiv — through control of funding, sanction legislation, the work of relevant committees, and parliamentary oversight of the administration’s actions. However, the effectiveness of this mechanism will depend on how well the Democrats can negotiate with the Republicans, who advocate for a tougher policy towards Russia and support for NATO.
Cover photo: Renee Dominguez/KUT Public Media
