Dobropillya direction
The enemy (Russian troops) continues offensive actions with the forces of their 2nd and 51st combined arms armies (CAA) of the “Center” group of troops (GOT), aiming to reach the main forces of their advanced units and formations on the nearest approaches to the city of Dobropillya from the south and southeast.
Also, the troops on the right flank of the Russian GOT “Center” are evidently participating in the offensive actions of the 8th CAA GOT “South” towards Druzhkivka along both banks of the Kazennyi Torets river, in which separate units and subdivisions of the 41st CAA and the 90th Tank Division (TD) GOT “Center” are also participating.
1. The current situation in this direction is characterized by fairly intensive “infiltration” actions by the enemy’s advanced units and subdivisions in the tactical zone with their assault (small infantry) groups simultaneously on several sections. Moreover, the number of these penetration groups and the number of enemy assault infantry participating in them are gradually increasing. Specifically:
– In the direction of Sofiyivka β Pryiut and Toretske β Novomykolaivka, the enemy is attempting to advance north, northeast with their small infantry groups and consolidate both in Novomykolaivka itself and south of it, as well as in the area of Pavlivka β Pryiut β Torske β Novopavlivka. So far, not very successfully for them. In most cases, these groups are detected in a timely manner during their advance into these areas, and they are destroyed. However, some Russian infantry members sometimes manage to survive, and then they are captured south of Novomykolaivka and on the opposite (eastern) bank of the Kazennyi Torets, mostly between Pryiut and Novopavlivka.
Additionally, it is evident that in the areas where these groups are likely accumulating (the Sofiyivka, Toretske, and Shakhova areas), Ukrainian UAV units are working quite actively and successfully, effectively “minimizing” the size and number of these groups even at the stage of their formation and accumulation.
– South of Kucherovyi Yar (in the quarry area), there is also activity of Russian assault groups trying to advance towards Kucherovyi Yar and further towards Zolote Kolodyaz. Currently, the enemy has not achieved significant success in this direction.
– The enemy also demonstrates high activity in the directions of Vilne β Hannivka and Dorozhne β Novyi Donbas, trying to “get a foothold” on the eastern outskirts of the city of Dobropillia with its assault groups. The main “axes” of their actions in these directions have become the railway leading from Dorozhne to Dobropillia, and the Byk River, along which small enemy infantry groups try to penetrate into Hannivka.
So far, the enemy has not been able to achieve these goals. However, small “remnants” of Russian assault groups (2-3 infantrymen each) occasionally reach Hannivka and the large spoil tip on the northeastern outskirts of Dobropillia, where they are quickly detected and destroyed.
In this sense, it is clear that the enemy’s actions are significantly complicated by the fact that they still cannot reliably and steadily secure villages of Vilne and Novyi Donbas with significant forces and use them as a kind of “springboard” for a more massive advance on Dobropillia from the east (there are groups of 8-10 Russian assault troops mainly searching for reliable shelters from Ukrainian strike UAVs). Hence, their assault groups are mostly forced to “start” towards Dobropillia still from Dorozhne and Novyi Shakhovyi and cover quite considerable distances, as for infantry, (over 8-9 km) to the eastern outskirts of the city. This, in turn, sharply increases the probability of timely detection of these enemy groups by Ukrainian UAVs during their movement along the “routes” of penetration and, accordingly, inflicting fire damage on them.
– The enemy is also trying to advance in the direction of Biletske β Chernihivka, although fighting is still ongoing in Biletske itself, and the enemy does not fully control it.
It is likely that the Russian command is preparing to intensify its activity in this direction. At least, in the area of the village of Zatyshok (precisely in this direction), a considerable accumulation of Russian assault infantry and light means of its motorization (up to 30 units) is being recorded. All this will clearly move towards Biletske in the future, although, of course, after the detection of this accumulation of enemy assault infantry, fire strikes have been made on it.
In addition, Russian units are constantly trying to secure territory at the Chernihivska mine and penetrate the village of Vodyanske from the northeast and south, bypassing the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in Biletske from the south and north. For now, in this regard, it is worth noting only the recording of a small Russian infantry group (up to 6 “bodies”) on the southern outskirts of the village of Svitle (obviously, they penetrated there from the side of the village of Shevchenkove). Other attempts were likely unsuccessful.
– South of the city of Dobropillia, in the directions of Novooleksandrivka β Matyasheve and Vasylivka β Dobropillia (village), the enemy is also quite active, but mainly with its small infantry groups.
The Ukrainian forces continue to hold a number of positions north of Novooleksandrivka and Vasylivka, but it is evident that the enemy’s tactical command has found more or less safe routes to advance its small infantry groups in these directions. Ukrainian units have to regularly conduct active search and raid actions in the areas of the villages of Matyasheve, Dobropillia, Novohyrysheve, as well as in some forest strips to the WEST of the city of Dobropillia, capturing “ultra-small” groups of Russian infantrymen in groups of 2-3 “bodies”.
2. Regarding the overall situation in the Dobropillia direction, it can be noted that the command of the Russian 2nd and 51st Combined Arms Armies is deliberately focusing its main efforts south and southeast of the city of Dobropillia. Meanwhile, it should be kept in mind that evidently their main goal is not a breakthrough to the immediate approaches to Dobropillia itself, but rather the capture and control of at least one of the areas located directly near this city, in order to gather their assault infantry there for its subsequent storming.
In this sense, it becomes clear that individual “raids” of small Russian infantry groups on the outskirts of Dobropillia, even if their numbers have increased from 2-3 personnel to 6-8, and sometimes even 10-12, do not solve this problem. They cannot stably and confidently control a section of terrain for any significant period, even if they manage to hide and consolidate there.
To achieve this, it is necessary for the main forces of the enemy’s forward parts and units to reach these areas + have the ability for shelter and accumulation of assault infantry there. So far, the Ukrainian command operating in the Dobropillia direction has been quite successful in preventing this, although in this context it also has a significant “headache” from the constant attempts of numerous Russian assault groups to “penetrate.”
In my opinion, the most promising area for the Russian troops in this plan is the region of Dobropillia (village) β Chernihivka β Vodyanske β Matyasheve. I think this is why the Russian “Center” group command is currently concentrating its main efforts at the junction of the 2nd and 51st Combined Arms Armies, trying to break through there.
However, to achieve this goal, the enemy will clearly need to perform at least two more tactical tasks β completely displace Ukrainian troops from Biletske and advance from the Vasylivka β Novooleksandrivka line with the main forces of the forward parts and units in a northern direction for at least another 4-5 km.
As a “backup” option for solving this problem, the Russian command is likely considering the directions of Vilne β Hannivka and Dorozhne β Novyi Donbas, i.e., a breakthrough towards Dobropillia from the east in the zone of its 51st Combined Arms Army.
Overall, I consider both these options equivalent in terms of their probability, especially considering that the Byk river channel (as well as the area of the so-called “Hannivka dachas”) and the railroad from Dorozhne towards Novyi Donbas and Dobropillia are quite convenient for the gradual increase of the enemy’s efforts.
Photo: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
