A few months ago, the very possibility of resuming negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the participation of American mediators seemed more like political fiction, although neither Moscow nor Kyiv ruled out new visits by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. However, the mediators were engaged in the Sisyphean task of finding ways to resolve the situation after the war with Iran, and the Kremlin was not rushing into negotiations either.
It is worth noting that it was not the Americans or Ukrainians who withdrew from the consultation process, but the Russians themselves. Until recently, Moscow emphasized that negotiations could resume only after Kyiv withdraws troops from those parts of Donetsk and Luhansk that remain under the control of the legitimate Ukrainian government. Until then, Putin refuses any talks.
But September came — and the mediators went to Moscow and Kyiv. Even though resolving the situation around Iran is out of reach. Even though Ukrainian troops remain in the Donbas. And even though Russian strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities continue, making defense difficult.
We understand why the resumption of negotiations is necessary for Zelensky: as a leader of a state that has faced aggression and destruction, he is simply obliged to seek ways to a just peace. Both from the perspective of his weary society and from the interests of partners who would like Kyiv not to dismiss chances for peace.
We understand why the resumption of negotiations is necessary for Trump, who would like the success of his peacekeeping efforts and the opportunity to resume economic cooperation with Russia.
And we do not quite understand why the resumption of negotiations is necessary for Putin. Unless the Russian president is indeed concerned about the state of his economy and would like to stop Ukrainian strikes. But how to achieve this without peace agreements?
However, the negotiations of Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow have not registered any real changes in the Russian position. Therefore, Putin’s willingness to negotiate can still be explained by his usual tactic of buying time. Only now, it’s quite likely that Putin is buying time not just for Trump, but also for the leaders of the Global South, the economic sponsors of Russia — China’s Xi Jinping and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Putin met with both during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek. And, incidentally, the tone of his statements noticeably changed after this.
Another reason that could have influenced Putin’s mood is the Russian president’s desire to meet with his American counterpart during the APEC summit in November in Shenzhen, China. It is clear that Putin’s unwillingness to engage with American mediators and demonstrate a readiness to seek peace could impede such a meeting. Especially since Putin has an even more ambitious idea, which was revealed by Russian presidential adviser Yuri Ushakov after his talks with Witkoff and Kushner.
This is a proposal for a trilateral summit of Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the meeting in Shenzhen. For Putin, such a meeting would be a huge achievement, as it would confirm that he is one of the leaders of the modern world, alongside the President of the United States and the head of China. Moreover, Trump, as is known, favors such a format.
It is quite likely that the resumption of negotiations on ending the Russian-Ukrainian war has become part of the Kremlin’s plans for organizing a trilateral meeting — and nothing more. And the visit of American mediators may have no relation to the true end of the war and Russia’s transition to more constructive and realistic positions.
Photo: Occupier media
