Honestly, I’m a bit tired of society’s reluctance to see the big picture and Trump’s role in Russia’s attack. According to the majority view, events where Trump acts against Ukraine are either foolishness, a lack of understanding of the nuances, or some other reasons like an unpredictable force of nature, but for some reason, no one perceives it as systematic work for Russia.
It’s strange because, for example, you can say about Orbán that he is a direct accomplice of Russia, whom Trump is directly trying to save from all scandals. And Orbán is an accomplice of Russia because there is a lot of evidence, yet with Trump, things are not so straightforward.
It’s more than clear because Trump is another Orbán, controlled by Russia with both a stick and a carrot. The stick is compromising material on financial operations. The carrot is conditions where a certain entourage receives unique business opportunities with Russia and its satellites, as well as informational support on social media with the help of bots and other info-maneuvers from Russia. And Trump is significantly pleased with the second option, so much so that I think the stick isn’t even necessary.
And I believe that the plan for Russia’s attack on Ukraine is a plan agreed upon with Trump. A long time ago. And Trump is part of this plan.
Now let me explain my position.
Despite the manipulations and constant lies that Russia didn’t attack during Trump’s time, that he gave Javelins, that he would have resolved things—sorry, that’s all untrue.
Starting with the Javelins. The very idea of providing assistance to Ukraine was promoted by “old Republicans” like McCain. Trump did everything to sabotage this process despite pressure from Republicans. As a result, he called Zelensky and asked for a favor: I’ll give you aid, and you launch an investigation against Biden’s son. This became known, and thus Trump faced an impeachment attempt. Following this scandal, of course, the aid was signed, but this was a forced decision by Trump due to the scandal, not his desire.
Moving on to the fact that there was no invasion during his time.
Of course, there wasn’t because an invasion of this scale requires years of preparation. Since today, a number of Russian propagandists have already admitted that in 2014-2015, when they wanted to dismantle Ukraine like Georgia, they unexpectedly received a bit of a beating. Ukrainians resisted, and even during the battles at Debaltseve, the Russians had such losses that it quickly became clear that Ukraine couldn’t be broken that way. A full-scale invasion and systematic approach were needed.
And it began. An active effort started with forming new units, logistics, reforming military units on Ukrainian territory, and other preparatory works. They went on for years. These investigations into Russia’s preparations for the attack were published throughout the first term of Trump’s presidency. Do you know what his actions were?
Donald Trump took a large number of secret documents and confidential intelligence data with him after completing his first presidential term at the beginning of 2021. This fact became the basis for a high-profile federal criminal investigation in the USA.
In December 2023, American media (including CNN) reported that at the end of Trump’s first term, a secret folder containing raw intelligence data from the US and NATO about Russian interference in the 2016 elections, which included information about sources and intelligence methods, disappeared from the White House.
In other words, it’s confirmed.
Trump ignored all data on Russia’s preparation for war in Ukraine and also concealed secret documents related to Russia.
Here are the key directions of Russia’s preparation for broader aggression, recorded by InformNapalm as of 2018:
1. Creation of new divisions and strike bases near borders:
* Militarization of Klintsy and Valuyki: Volunteers recorded the formation of new motorized rifle divisions (such as the 144th and 3rd MSD) in close proximity to Ukraine’s northeastern borders. Heavy armored vehicles were being accumulated at these bases.
* Relocation of entire units: The movement of military units from deep inside Russia (e.g., from the Urals and Siberia) to the Rostov, Bryansk, Belgorod, and Voronezh regions was tracked.
2. Large-scale maneuvers and war rehearsals (“Zapad-2017” and “Vostok-2018”):
* Analysis of “Zapad-2017” exercises. InformNapalm conducted a detailed monitoring of these maneuvers and proved that under the guise of exercises, Russia was practicing offensive operations, creating strike groups, logistics for mass troop transfers by rail, as well as the actual occupation and integration of Belarus’s military space.
* Evolution in “Vostok-2018”. The following year, analysts studied the “Vostok-2018” maneuvers, where Russia, together with China, tested the management of large military formations and the mobilization readiness of the economy for prolonged global warfare conditions.
3. Saturation of the occupied Donbas and Crimea with advanced equipment.
In 2018, InformNapalm’s database of Russian aggression was supplemented with dozens of new equipment samples, which are exclusively in service with the Russian Armed Forces:
* Electronic warfare and electronic intelligence means. The occupied territories recorded complexes like “Leer-3”, “Krasukha”, “Zhitel”, and orbital suppression systems (such as “Tirada-2”), designed to disable satellite communications and NATO and Ukrainian UAVs.
* Modernization in Crimea. The deployment of S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems and “Bastion” coastal anti-ship systems was recorded, indicating preparations for a full blockade of the Black and Azov Seas.
American intelligence knew all of this. Trump sabotaged all of it.
So, the phrase “during my time, Putin did not attack” has a very important clarification. During the first term, he did not attack because during the first term, Putin was preparing for the invasion and planned to attack only during the second term.
If you look at the statements of intelligence services, Putin planned to invade Ukraine in the spring of 2021.
And you know what stopped him? Diplomacy.
And you know why the attack was planned for the spring of 2021?
Because at the end of January 2021, there were elections in the USA, and Trump was supposed to go for a second term. But Trump unexpectedly lost due to COVID, BLM, and Putin was left without an ally to “cover” the invasion. The plan was as reliable as Swiss watches, Russia invades, Trump blocks aid, and we fall.
But Biden won. And I believe that saved us then.
For a whole year, Putin adjusted his plans to attack already during Biden’s term. That’s why diplomacy worked back then. And he attacked a year later, and by then diplomacy didn’t matter because there was a new plan.
And Trump did what he was supposed to do – he helped Russian propaganda, blocked aid, destroyed the “Republican hawks,” and tried to replace them with pro-Russian MAGA. Just a reminder, McCain was even against Trump attending his funeral. This is the true Republican attitude towards Trump.
That’s why Trump is like Orban, just from America. Controlled by Putin. An absolute puppet, which Putin manipulates like a spinner, and Trump responds to all journalists’ allegations by attacking them: Did I eat Putin’s lies? That’s false! I only picked beans, and no one has filtered and eaten them as magnificently, and you are all fake news.
And he makes no steps to resolve this war. He does everything so that Russia wins, while he has time, and he can, against Congress and others, involve Vitkoff, who is a business partner of Russian oligarchs, through whom Russia contacted Trump and sponsored him, and also Kushner, who has no rights to conduct such negotiations, as he is not an official and therefore doesn’t undergo checks, polygraphs, and the like, which are standard for negotiators of such rank.
For these two years, Vitkoff and Kushner have been trying to push a capitulation plan, but in a way that it wouldn’t look like a capitulation plan. We didn’t agree. And these doves of peace had no other plan.
And Lavrov and Ushakov repeatedly pointed out that you lack any other choice, and they explicitly said: “We expect the Anchorage agreements to be fulfilled, as so far you haven’t fulfilled them.” And we mocked this, but now, as we see, the USA has returned to them. Only now with different mechanisms – removing anti-ballistic missiles, Starlink, intelligence data.
What’s interesting, even the war in Iran played into Russia’s hands. Because everyone somehow thinks that the spike in oil prices was just some foolish oversight.
At that level, all options are analyzed by a large number of specialists. And I’m convinced that the rise in oil prices was a planned scenario by Trump. Because due to his trade wars, oil prices began to fall. This led to low income for both American oil companies and Putin’s ally, who couldn’t sponsor the war due to low oil prices. The war in Iran was needed by Bibi and Putin. Well, it’s clear why it was in Bibi’s interest, but mentioning Putin in this context seems to be avoided.
Therefore, the agreement to break the promise that America would not enter wars has very serious financial reasons. Oil magnates in America are making enormous profits. Russia too. Well, people are shocked by fuel prices, but what can stop the business time that has come?
Ukraine, of course, responded by striking the oil business in Russia, significantly limiting its revenues. And Trump responded accordingly.
I remind you, it is not the Vitkoff negotiations that can end this war, but Putin’s inability to finance it. And the only commitment that the negotiators have made is the “spirit of Anchorage.” And they are trying to fulfill it. And these agreements are Russia’s conditions for Ukraine’s capitulation, not a just peace.
What is happening now?
Trump stands a real chance of losing control over these processes. And that means investigations into Kushner and Vitkoff and the formation of an independent negotiating team from the USA. Also, the implementation of appropriate sanctions following Russia’s refusal, contrary to Trump’s opinion. This does not suit either Trump or Russia. Therefore, they are now increasing pressure on Ukraine. This is the most difficult period for us so far.
Trump himself is becoming toxic in America, his support among the population and Republicans is rapidly declining. By the midterm elections in the Senate, according to trends, this may only increase. We need to endure until the time when the system of checks and balances in the US, which Trump tried to break, kicks in, and America employs its peacemaking capabilities as it knows how, and it can. Fortunately, we are allies of America, and America is not Trump, although most have long started to associate it with him and his decisions. Yes, there will be significant turbulence, but we are still an important part of this agenda.
Therefore, we need to withstand agent Krasnov, and I think we have not seen all the pressure from Trump yet these months.
And I still believe that Trump showed the world how the system can be hacked, and when he loses power, America will learn from its mistakes. But that will be another story.
Illustration: Piet
