Information on current losses of Russia due to sanctions as of 07/06/2026.
1. Ukraine successfully attacked the Yaroslavl refinery — one of Russia’s key fuel plants.
– On the night of July 6, Ukrainian drones successfully attacked the Yaroslavl oil refinery (“Yaroslavnefteorgsintez”). Explosions were heard on the plant’s premises, followed by a fire. Local residents reported a series of explosions and smoke in the area of the plant.
– The Yaroslavl refinery is one of the largest oil processing enterprises in Russia. Its design capacity is about 15 million tons of oil per year (over 300 thousand barrels per day).
– The plant produces gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation kerosene, and other oil products used by both the civilian sector and to supply the Russian army.
2. Ukrainian drones hit the Omsk refinery — one of the largest oil refineries in Russia.
– On the night of July 6, Ukrainian long-range drones attacked the Omsk oil refinery — the largest refinery in Russia by oil processing volumes. According to Ukrainian and Russian OSINT communities, at least two hits were recorded on the enterprise’s territory, followed by a fire.
– The Omsk refinery, owned by “Gazprom Neft,” has a capacity of about 22 million tons of oil per year (about 10% of the total oil processing) and is the largest oil processing enterprise in Russia.
– The damage to the Omsk refinery, which until recently remained one of the few major plants operating without significant damage, increases pressure on Russia’s fuel balance.
3. The price of Russian oil has fallen to the level it was before the war with Iran.
– The price of Russian Urals oil at the beginning of July fell to $41.66 per barrel, returning to levels before the short-term price spike due to the conflict around Iran, according to Argus quotes.
– The Russian Ministry of Finance uses Argus quotes to calculate tax revenues from the oil sector. The current price is almost 30% lower than the $59 per barrel level laid down in the federal budget, necessary to meet the oil and gas revenue plan.
– During the escalation of the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, Moscow temporarily benefited from the rise in global oil prices. However, this effect proved to be short-lived.
– After the resumption of exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the OPEC+ decision to once again increase production, global prices went down again. If Urals continues to remain significantly below the budget benchmark, Russia will face another reduction in oil revenues in the coming months.
– The situation is further exacerbated by the already significant federal budget deficit. In the first five months of 2026, it reached 6 trillion rubles (approximately $77 billion), which is about 60% more than the planned deficit for the entire year.
– Due to the peculiarities of the Russian tax system, the drop in oil prices in July will begin to directly affect budget revenues in August. This complicates the Kremlin’s attempts to finance growing military expenses while simultaneously curbing the budget deficit.
4. OPEC+ increases production for the fifth consecutive month: cheaper oil intensifies pressure on Russia’s budget.
– OPEC+ countries agreed for the fifth consecutive month to increase oil production quotas. In August, production will rise by another 188,000 barrels per day.
– The decision was made against the backdrop of easing risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the expected increase in supply in the global market. At the same time, a key factor putting pressure on oil quotes remains the slowdown in demand from China, which is reducing raw material imports.
– On July 6, global oil prices fell by more than 1%. Brent futures dropped to $71.1 per barrel (-1.4%), and WTI to $67.9 (-1.2%).
– For Russia, this situation is especially painful – Russian oil is traditionally sold at a significant discount to Brent. If Brent has already dropped to around $71 per barrel, the price of Russian Urals risks sinking even deeper below the level needed to balance the federal budget.
– Earlier in July, in western Russian ports, Urals was already priced below $45 per barrel.
– Despite the increase in quota, Russia is physically unable to produce even the allowed volumes. A quota of 9.887 million barrels per day has been set for August, but according to OPEC data, in May the actual production barely exceeded 9 million barrels due to industry problems, including after attacks on oil infrastructure.
– If China continues to reduce purchases and OPEC+ continues to increase production, pressure on oil prices may only intensify. For Russia’s budget, this implies a further deepening of the deficit, growing financial problems in the regions, and an increasingly difficult choice between financing the war, social payments, and supporting the economy.
5. The largest oil port in Russia ran out of gasoline due to the fuel crisis.
– In Novorossiysk, where the largest Russian oil terminal on the Black Sea is located, there is a severe fuel shortage. Local authorities reported that gasoline is completely unavailable at gas stations, and diesel fuel is available in limited quantities only at certain stations.
– This is another consequence of the fuel crisis that has engulfed almost all of Russia following a series of successful Ukrainian strikes on key oil refineries. Due to the damage to the refineries, oil processing and gasoline production volumes have sharply decreased.
– Novorossiysk holds strategic importance for Russian oil exports. In June, over 980,000 barrels of oil per day were shipped through the local terminal, making it the largest oil port in the country on the Black Sea.
– Gasoline supply issues or various forms of fuel rationing have already affected about 90% of regions in Russia.
6. Russian analogue of Starlink faced problems right after launch.
– Russia’s attempt to create its own analogue of the Starlink satellite network called “Rassvet” began encountering failures right from the start. Out of the first 16 satellites launched into low Earth orbit in March 2026, one failed less than three months after launch.
– An additional blow to the space program was the report by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine about the targeting of the space communications center near Moscow on July 1. According to the Ukrainian side, the main building was damaged, and part of the antennas was destroyed.
– After the start of the full-scale war, Russia has effectively lost a significant part of the international space launch market.
– Foreign customers have refused services of “Roscosmos,” and the company has turned into a “black hole,” consuming billions annually due to losses.
– The contrast with American SpaceX is becoming increasingly apparent. While Elon Musk’s company operates over 10,000 Starlink satellites and plans new space projects, including asteroid mining and Mars exploration, “Roscosmos” not only lags in creating its satellite constellation but also continues to struggle with technical issues even on the International Space Station.
7. The UK intercepted two Russian military aircraft near a NATO carrier group.
– As part of an enhanced NATO mission in the Arctic, the UK intercepted two Russian maritime patrol aircraft Tu-142 (“Bear-F”) that approached the British carrier strike group in the Norwegian Sea.
– According to the UK Ministry of Defence, at the end of last week, Russian aircraft repeatedly carried out “dangerous and unprofessional” maneuvers near the HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carrier.
– Additionally, the Tu-142 crews dropped a large number of sonobuoys — devices used to detect and track submarines — in close proximity to the carrier group.
– In response, on July 2, UK F-35 fighter jets took to the air, intercepted the Russian aircraft, and escorted them away from the NATO ships.
8. The US assisted Ukraine in plotting drone routes for strikes on Russian refineries.
– American intelligence helped Ukraine plan long-range drone routes for strikes on Russian oil refineries, allowing them to bypass air defense systems.
– The US provided Ukrainian military with intelligence that allowed them to determine optimal flight routes, altitude, and timing for attacks. This helped enhance the effectiveness of strikes on Russian oil refinery infrastructure.
– Western officials view Ukrainian attacks on refineries as one of the most effective ways to weaken Russia’s economic potential. Due to the extensive strike campaign, Russian oil refining has already encountered serious problems.
– According to Energy Intelligence estimates, in June 2026, oil processing volumes in Russia decreased by approximately 25% year-on-year to the lowest level in over two decades, and gasoline production fell by 17%.
– This provoked fuel shortages in many regions, sharp price increases, and the necessity to import gasoline from India and aviation fuel through intermediaries from Japan. Meanwhile, despite economic losses, Moscow does not show readiness to change its military objectives.
