Information on current losses of the Russian Federation due to sanctions as of 02.10.2026.
1. On the night of October 2, Ukrainian drones massively attacked the industrial infrastructure of the Volgograd region.
– Local residents reported numerous explosions in different parts of the city. A large fire broke out in the area of two nearby enterprises — the Volgograd oil refinery and the chemical plant “Caustic.”
– The Volgograd refinery, owned by Lukoil, ranks among the top ten largest in Russia. The enterprise can process about 14.8 million tons of oil per year and produces gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation kerosene, fuel oil, and bitumen.
– On July 31, the refinery was already attacked by drones. At that time, key production facilities were damaged, and the primary oil processing units AVT-1 and AVT-6 were halted.
– The nearby “Caustic” plant is a major chemical industry enterprise and supplies products to the Russian military-industrial complex.
2. Ukraine continues to strike Russian refineries despite warnings from US President Donald Trump about the impact of the attacks on the global diesel fuel market and its prices.
– Ukrainian forces struck a refinery in the Samara region. A Russian ship in the Black Sea and a launch and storage platform for attack drones in the Oryol region were also hit.
– According to Ukraine’s assessments, over 45% of Russia’s refining capacities have been disabled in recent months. Earlier this week, Russia extended the ban on diesel fuel exports until the end of October.
– Prior to the full-scale war, it was the second-largest diesel exporter in the world.
– Ukraine continues to attack Russia’s oil infrastructure because revenues from the export of oil and petroleum products are one of the sources of financing Russia’s war against Ukraine.
3. Russia plans to maintain military spending at a record level for at least three years despite reduced energy revenue.
– According to the budget bill, 17 trillion rubles are allocated for the war in 2027 — 27% more than the previous plan. In 2028, spending will only slightly decrease to 16.6 trillion rubles.
– To finance these expenses, the government plans to increase the extraction of funds from other sectors of the economy. In particular, from mining companies and fertilizer producers, up to 30% of excess profit will be collected if world prices for raw materials in ruble equivalent exceed the basic level of 2025 by at least 10%.
– For gold mining companies, a 20% tax on excess profits will be introduced.
– The authorities also plan to increase taxes on dividends, change the rules for profit taxation, and increase income from the sale of confiscated assets.
– Additional burdens will also fall on the population. In 2027, utility tariffs in Russia will increase by an average of 11%. Meanwhile, spending on education, culture, social policy, and healthcare will be reduced.
4. The Russian Ministry of Finance failed to conduct a federal loan bond auction (OFZ) scheduled for September 30.
– The agency recognized the placement of bonds maturing in 2030 as unsuccessful due to the absence of bids at acceptable prices. This is the first failure of a Ministry of Finance auction since July.
– The agency last placed OFZ last week — for 150 billion rubles, and the week before — for 139.6 billion. In total, in the third quarter, the Ministry of Finance raised 1.264 trillion rubles for the budget.
– The auction failure occurred after the revision of Russia’s budget plans. In 2027, military spending is expected to increase by about a third — to 17.1 trillion rubles. Along with spending on other security agencies, they will exceed 40% of the federal budget.
– The Ministry of Finance increased the budget deficit forecast for 2026 to a record 7.3 trillion rubles from the initial 3.6 trillion. To cover it, the authorities plan to borrow an additional 1 trillion rubles. In 2027, the Ministry of Finance expects to sell OFZ for 7.7 trillion rubles.
– Meanwhile, the yield on long-term Russian government bonds approached 17% annually — the maximum level for new government debt since 2002–2003.
5. Amid threats of asset nationalization, Russian businesses this year have transferred 471.7 billion rubles to the federal budget in the form of so-called voluntary contributions.
– The Russian Ministry of Finance does not disclose who exactly and how much was transferred.
– A sharp increase in these payments began after a meeting of big business with Putin. Before it, receipts from non-governmental organizations amounted to 15.6 billion rubles, the following month they rose to 159.7 billion, and by mid-August — to 383.7 billion rubles.
– The increase in contributions is happening against the backdrop of a massive seizure of private assets in Russia. In recent years, hundreds of companies with a total value of over 7 trillion rubles have come under state control, and criminal cases have been filed against some owners.
– In March, billionaires Suleiman Kerimov, Vladimir Potanin, and Oleg Deripaska were ready to contribute 460 billion rubles to the budget from their funds if the authorities abandoned plans to introduce a windfall tax on their enterprises.
– At the same time, the tax will still be introduced in 2027. From Norilsk Nickel, Rusal, and the gold mining company Polyus, the authorities expect about 200 billion rubles annually for the next three years.
– Additional business contributions are helping the Russian authorities cover the budget deficit, which in 2026, according to the latest estimate from the Ministry of Finance, could grow to a record 7.3 trillion rubles against the initial 3.7 trillion.
6. The United States has imposed new sanctions against the Russian financial network A7, which the US Department of the Treasury called a “significant transnational criminal organization.”
– The US authorities accuse A7 of establishing an international network to bypass Western sanctions for Russian and Iranian clients. According to the US Department of the Treasury, the network helped sanctioned companies, individuals, and governments purchase goods worldwide, including military supplies. A7 used shell companies and cryptocurrencies for payments and to conceal their purpose.
– A7 used over 70 shell companies in different countries to transfer funds on behalf of sanctioned Russian enterprises.
– The network also created a special AI-based application that allowed the forgery of trade documents. According to an analysis of A7’s internal documents, the network conducted prohibited transactions worth over $500 million on behalf of Russian companies and individuals in the first four months of 2026.
– Over $130 million was directed towards products that could be used by the Russian military-industrial complex. After the US imposed sanctions against A7 in August 2025, some of the shell companies closed, but new structures later appeared in Bahrain, Nigeria, the UAE, and other countries.
– The new US measures involve the checking of transactions by American financial institutions with companies on a confidential list of A7’s shell structures and the prohibition of processing the corresponding transactions.
7. Japan introduced a new package of sanctions against Russia on October 2, targeting representatives of the military-industrial complex and vessels of the “shadow fleet.”
– Asset freeze restrictions have been imposed on 33 Russian organizations and 9 individuals. Among them are leaders of “Rostec,” “Voentorg,” “Uralvagonzavod,” and companies involved in drone production in the special economic zone “Alabuga.”
– Specific restrictions have been applied to 35 vessels. Japan has limited the provision of certain services to them, as well as capital operations related to their sale, purchase, lease, or charter.
– Additionally, Japan has banned exports to four entities in countries other than Russia and Belarus, and expanded the export ban to Russia for goods that could enhance its industrial potential.
