Evening analysis of the nocturnal rooster attack. Sorry, it happened this way, only now.
This is not a unique new attack, the enemy used no new tactics, but it’s unique in another way. It’s an absolute repeat 😉 .
Yes, it’s a large combined attack (LCA) using cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic missiles. But it’s an exact copy of the strike on August 5. And before that, on August 1, there was a Large Ballistic Attack (LBA). And what happened on September 1? Correct, the same LBA.
So, the roosters carried out the same two attacks in different months on the 1st and 5th, but due to the arrival of Americans, today’s attack was postponed to September 8. The means are the same. And there were no Calibers. Actually, on August 5, there were 24 ballistic missiles, equal to a missile brigade of 12 launchers, and today – 22 missiles! One launcher less. Either they lacked missiles (I doubt it), or we hit one. Although after hitting one, the others should have left the launch boundaries. So, most likely, they are saving up. Two missiles per attack, enough to save up for another LBA by November.
Another interesting moment with cyclicality. On August 5, 2023, the attack was purely maritime – 14 calibers from ships and 3 Kinzhals from the air. Airborne Forces Day, after all 🙂 .
Now I’ll give the approximate numbers of missiles calculated at night, there are also details.
The roosters launched a total of 22 ballistic missiles: 16 of their Iskanders and 6 KN-23s. Almost a brigade, not a full load.
32 Kh-101 cruise missiles (we shot down 31, as usual, the aviation guys are awesome). 20 missiles from four Tu-95s and 12 from two Tu-160s. Again – not a full load. In the Tu-160, two internal drums of 6 missiles each. A salvo of 12 missiles could be launched by one plane, but to avoid a full load, they divided into one drum each. And in the Tu-95MS, instead of hanging the full pack of 8 missiles on the old bucket, which they haven’t been able to produce for a long time, they hung only 4 missiles on each. So all strategic planes had exactly half the load. They save motor resources because they have enough missiles.
Two Zircons and two Oniks on Odesa – nothing new. They are taking out port infrastructure. And there’s nothing to shoot them down with 😥 .
What changed since August? So far, a complete copy of the attacks at the start of the months. But compared to July, there was more than a 30% reduction in ballistics in August. They started economizing in August. And even though we didn’t have PAC-3 interceptors, they could have fired non-stop. But statistics don’t lie. In August, 30% less ballistics were launched. And looking at the two attacks in September, even here they started to reduce by a couple of missiles).
May and April were very intense. Besides LCAs and LBAs, there were also Small Attacks in between. Remember, every 3-5 days there was an SBA with 3-6 missiles? Well, in August, they disappeared.
Overall, the August analysis is half based on feelings and memory because the AF closed the stats (which is good). And then, after the change of leadership on August 6, I began to lose the thread of analysis. They became unpredictable, the pauses between attacks increased. I even told someone that the roosters were becoming harder to analyze, August felt like that. But September put everything in place.
Instead of new areas, new tactics, and means – they repeated two plans almost day by day. Someone simply copy-pasted two attack plans, slightly reduced the means, and distributed them to the executors 🙂 .
| At night, by the way, for those who don’t sleep on such nights, I sit throughout the attack on Telegram Price Time, writing about all this. And made predictions about the time, what and how much there will be by morning. Oh, how happy I was that most of it came true.
I see again what they will do, just by analyzing previous attacks. Nothing in August changed with the leadership. They just moved the beds in the brothel 😆 . But this is my joy, that they are predictable. Of course, I’m angry that they do this, they will burn for it. And I sympathize with every loss. So the conclusion. Either they are really gathering missiles to carry out a few more LBAs by September 20, or they are saving up for autumn/winter. I’m just noting for myself to read later in winter. Or did we mess up their ballistic production rates, and starting October they will work on winter targets, or are they just gathering missiles for other targets… |
And this is a video from Saratov and Engels. Our drones were symmetrically flying over wetlands at night 😎
Pictured: Kyiv, September 8, 2026. Photo: Efrem Lukatsky
