There is still no major analytical center in Ukraine that studies Russia, says former Minister of Foreign Affairs (2007-2009), head of the “Center for Russian Studies” Volodymyr Ohryzko. Because of this, we don’t precisely know what to demand from it, which also affects our actions.
Volodymyr Ohryzko expressed his opinion on how and why to study Russia, what the state line of behavior should be, and what to do with the Russian Federation after the war, during the discussion panel “Understand to Win: Do We Know Our Enemy Well Enough?” (which LB.ua conducted jointly with EFI Group as part of the “New Country” project). We now share it with our readers.
Once in Ukraine, there was an Institute for Russian Studies, recalls Volodymyr Ohryzko. But it quickly transformed into the Institute of Strategic Studies, as Russia was considered a strategic partner with whom friendship was needed. However, the lack of sufficient information about the enemy limits actions against it, the former foreign minister believes.
“Since we do not have an analytical center that would thoroughly, deeply, and consistently study what is happening in Russia, we actually do not know what we want from it. When there is a strategic goal, you understand what is needed to ultimately achieve it. And if we do not have a clearly formulated goal, then what are we negotiating about? About the line of demarcation? This is one option. About the line of 2022 — the second. About the line of 1991 — the third. About the destruction of Russia — the fourth,” noted Volodymyr Ohryzko.
Not fully understanding Russia, we also cannot explain it to our partners, who themselves are not particularly eager to study it, adds Ohryzko.
“Neither our American friends nor the Europeans, unfortunately, want to study what Russia is. Neither today, nor yesterday, nor the day before yesterday, nor after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They live on headlines, on what is read on the so-to-speak front page of a newspaper. And Western partners must clearly understand what they are talking about when they speak with Russians. Because they do not know what Russian history is, Russian mentality, they do not understand what Ukrainian-Russian relations are.”
“And here we need to combine efforts to finally develop a state line of behavior. Only after that will our actions be meaningful. Not talking about one thing today, another tomorrow, and a third the day after tomorrow,” notes the head of the “Center for Russian Studies.”
He is convinced: as long as Russia exists within its current borders, it will remain unchanged — aggressive, imperial, predatory.
“After 2014-2015, we fell into the illusion that we need to make agreements with Russia, and everything will be fine. How well that worked out, we saw in 2022. Therefore, the talks about making Ukraine stronger and forgetting about Russia are wishful thinking, as the Americans say,” Volodymyr Ohryzko is convinced. “We need to do both.”
We need to become stronger and finish off Russia because only under such circumstances can there be a guarantee that February 24, 2022, will not be repeated. If everything remains as it is on the other side of the border, count 10 years, and we will have the same situation. This is a country that lives by war, aggression, and making life difficult for others. We cannot distance ourselves and forget about it. Because then our children and grandchildren will experience what we have now.
Volodymyr Ohryzko does not believe in the possibility of democratizing Russia, considering it “essentially impossible.” The chance for a normal life next to our northern neighbor, in his opinion, lies in disrupting Russia’s current borders, causing an economic collapse there.
“I recall the times of the USSR when everyone said: ‘My God, what are you talking about? The USSR is a powerful state, strength, on par with the Americans, a nuclear power.’ But as soon as the Soviet economic system collapsed, the political regime collapsed as well. Therefore, what do we need to do for the Russian economic system to collapse — destroy it and finish it off,” emphasized the former minister.
And this is exactly what our heroes are doing today, delivering “deep strikes,” adds Volodymyr Ohryzko, breaking the backbone of the Russian economy and the Russian military-industrial complex.
“This is our path to victory. Russia usually extracts 500 million tons of oil per year. Now it has reduced production by 50 million tons. So these wells are no longer operational. And what is a non-operational well? It means it is permanently shut down.
Look at what is happening along the chain. For internal needs, Russia requires 300 million tons per year, and about 200 always went for export. Today, it’s about 150. That’s in the best case — if it reaches Ust-Luga, Primorsk, Novorossiysk, Tuapse, etc. And if it doesn’t arrive, it is immediately felt.
Today, in Moscow, they are already issuing 60 liters of gasoline per car, and in Crimea — 20 liters. What does this indicate? It’s about the same mood of the ‘population,’ which will somehow indirectly affect decision-making,” says Volodymyr Ohryzko.
He considers it strategically important to actively demonstrate to boost the morale of Ukrainians: from where Russia started its special military operation four years ago to how it is collapsing now.
“Therefore, we are creating a strong Ukraine, joining the European Union, making ourselves European, and destroying Russia — this is the recipe for victory,” concluded Volodymyr Ohryzko.
Photo: Zoryana Stelmakh/LB.ua
