Information on current Russian losses due to sanctions as of 19.06.2026.
1. The Moscow Refinery “Gazprom Neft” suffered new damages following the second drone attack in a week.
– On June 18, the strike damaged the Euro+ oil processing unit, which provides about 47% of the plant’s capacity and 30-50% of Moscow and surrounding areas.
– The attack damaged processing units, pipelines, equipment, and fuel product tanks, causing fires. This is the second attack on the plant within a week: after the June 16 strike, the plant stopped operations due to damage to the AVT-6 unit. The new attack complicated the possibility of quickly resuming production.
– The Moscow Refinery is one of the key fuel suppliers for the Moscow region and central Russia, so prolonged reductions in its operations could increase risks for the domestic fuel market.
2. The Russian stock market collapsed after the largest drone attack on Moscow since the start of the war.
– The Moscow Exchange index fell by 2.3%, during trading reaching the lowest level since December 2024. Among the main losers is “Gazprom Neft,” which owns the Moscow Refinery. The plant faced a second attack in a week and stopped operations.
– Previously, production also ceased at the Taneco, Kuybyshev, and Volgograd refineries. Additional pressure on the market is exerted by the drop in global oil prices and the risk of increased sanctions.
– Rosneft shares lost about 4% and fell to their lowest since 2023, while Gazprom shares approached the lowest levels since 2009.
3. Oil prices dropped by more than 3% amid expectations of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
– Global oil prices fell due to expectations of the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following agreements between the US and Iran. Brent oil futures fell to $77.04 a barrel (–3.16%).
– During trading, the price dropped below $77 for the first time since March. American WTI oil also became cheaper. July futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange lost 3.5%, falling to $74.1 a barrel.
– The drop in oil prices negatively affects Russia by reducing budget revenues from energy exports amid large military expenditures and sanctions.
– Additional pressure is created by the fact that Russian oil is sold at a discount to global benchmark grades due to sanction restrictions and costs associated with using a “shadow fleet.” If the downward trend in prices continues, it could further complicate the financing of military expenses and exacerbate problems in the Russian economy.
4. The discount on Russian Urals oil compared to the benchmark Brent could increase again amid sanction uncertainties and expectations of further actions by the USA.
– After the expiration of the U.S. license on June 17, market participants fear tightened restrictions, which could increase the discount on Russian oil by another $1–1.5 per barrel — to $23.5–24.5.
– Additional pressure is created by the prospect of Iranian oil returning to the market following agreements between the USA and Iran. This could strengthen buyers’ positions and force Russian exporters to offer even larger discounts to maintain sales volumes.
– Indian oil refining companies have already attempted to secure a discount of $27 per barrel, but deals under such conditions have not yet been concluded. However, the very fact of such demands indicates increased pressure on Russian suppliers.
– The situation remains uncertain: buyers insist on deeper discounts, while sellers try to curb further declines in export revenue.
– If sanctions are intensified, the discount on Russian oil could continue to expand, directly impacting Russia’s oil revenues.
5. IEA forecasts a significant oil surplus in 2027: a new risk for Russia’s revenues.
– The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that in 2027 the global oil market will face a “substantial surplus” in supply if agreements between the USA and Iran are implemented and previously limited production volumes return to the market.
– According to the agency, next year the global oil supply could exceed demand by 5.05 million barrels per day. This represents almost 5% of global consumption and sets the stage for a prolonged decrease in oil prices.
– The IEA expects that after a reduction in production to 102.4 million barrels per day in 2026, global production will increase to 110.3 million barrels in 2027. Meanwhile, demand will grow much slower — only by 2 million barrels per day.
– Additional volumes could enter the market not only from the Persian Gulf countries after the resumption of mothballed fields. In recent years, the USA, Brazil, and other non-OPEC countries have also significantly increased their production and export.
– For Russia, the predicted oil surplus poses a serious threat. Oil and gas revenues remain a key source of financing for the federal budget, which is already under pressure from record military expenditures and sanctions.
– In the event of a prolonged price decline, Moscow risks losing a significant portion of export income, and the discount on Russian oil would only amplify the negative effect on the budget and economy.
6. European Union leaders have agreed to extend sectoral sanctions against Russia for another 12 months due to its war against Ukraine.
– The decision was made on June 18 at the EU summit in Brussels. This is the first time since the start of the full-scale war that the restrictions are extended for an entire year.
– Previously, sectoral sanctions covering the financial, energy, transport, and technological sectors of the Russian economy were renewed every six months.
7. Viktor Orban’s media empire, which provided informational support to his power for over a decade and a half, began to rapidly disintegrate after his defeat in the Hungarian parliamentary elections.
– According to local media, about 400 journalists from the pro-government Mediaworks holding will lose their jobs, and a number of print and online publications will be closed or reorganized. The company explained the cuts as a “change in content consumption habits” and a need to improve business efficiency.
– Meanwhile, Hungarian media experts describe the events as an unprecedented dismantling of the information system that Orbán built over the years with state advertising and loyal business groups.
– One of the symbols of change will be the transformation of the pro-government newspaper Magyar Nemzet from a daily to a weekly publication. The print version of the tabloid Bors and several regional newspapers will also cease publication. During Orbán’s tenure, government-controlled media actively shaped a positive image of the government, discredited the opposition, and supported pro-Russian narratives.
– At the same time, independent Hungarian publications continued to operate despite political and financial pressure, thanks to reader support and journalistic investigations.
– The new government of Péter Magyar has already begun reforming state media. The stated goal is to depoliticize public broadcasting, strengthen editorial independence, and introduce a more transparent management system.
– Meanwhile, the European Commission continues to investigate the case of media freedom violations in Hungary, opened during Orbán’s rule. One of Brussels’ key complaints was the concentration of media ownership and the use of state resources to support pro-government media.
8. Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev announced that Sofia would block the new EU sanctions package against Russia.
– Radev explained this with possible negative consequences for the Bulgarian economy and disagreement with the inclusion of the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, in the sanctions list.
– According to Radev, the new restrictions could create risks for the activities of Lukoil, which controls Bulgaria’s only oil refinery in Burgas, and affect the supply of spare parts for the Sofia metro and fertilizers.
– On the eve of this, the EU expanded its sanctions list, adding dozens of individuals and entities linked to the Russian military-industrial complex, the “shadow fleet,” and Kremlin political operations.
– Radev, who came to power after winning the elections in April and is known for his skeptical attitude towards sanctions and military aid to Ukraine, has already stated in recent weeks his intention to halt arms supplies to Kyiv.
– At the same time, his position could complicate the adoption of new EU sanctions decisions, which require unanimous support from all member states.
