Information on current Russian losses due to sanctions as of 17-18.06.2026.
1. Moscow Refinery halted oil processing after drone attack.
– Moscow Oil Refinery “Gazprom Neft” accidentally halted oil processing after a drone attack on June 16 and the subsequent fire.
– The drone crash damaged the primary oil processing unit AVT-6 with a capacity of 21.4 thousand tons per day. It accounts for about 53% of the plant’s capacity. The Moscow Refinery is one of Russia’s key oil processing enterprises and supplies a significant portion of the fuel needs for Moscow and the Moscow region. The plant is among the largest refineries in the country and plays an important role in supplying gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to the capital region.
– Following the incident, the plant completely halted oil raw material processing. Until the repair of the damaged equipment is completed, the refinery will operate at reduced capacity.
2. Shares of Russia’s largest oil companies fell to multi-year lows after the refinery strikes.
– The oil and gas sector index of the Moscow Exchange dropped to its lowest level since March 2023. The index, which includes shares of the 11 largest oil and gas companies in Russia, fell to 6081 points.
– Despite rising global oil prices due to the escalation in the Middle East, the index has fallen in 10 of the last 12 weeks. In the past three months, it has lost 25%, and since the beginning of the year—15%.
– The decline in quotes is associated with several factors. Among them are the strengthening of the ruble, the absence of expected easing of Western sanctions, as well as strikes on oil processing infrastructure, production disruptions, and problems with fuel station supplies.
– The biggest losses were suffered by leading oil companies. Rosneft shares fell by 5.3% in one day, reaching a low since February 2023. Since the beginning of the year, the company’s shares have fallen by 15%. Last year, Rosneft’s net profit decreased fourfold, and in the first quarter of 2026—by another third.
– Lukoil shares have lost 14% of their value since the beginning of the year and dropped to their lowest level since May 2023. Surgutneftegaz shares reached a low since October 2022 after reports of the KINEF refinery shutdown.
– TATNEFT shares fell by nearly 7% in one day, having recently halted its largest oil refinery TANЕKO after a drone attack.
– Last year’s losses of the Russian oil sector from refinery attacks were estimated at about 1 trillion rubles. In 2026, the number of strikes continued to rise, reaching a record level from January to May.
3. The Russian federal budget in 2026 may miss out on more than 2 trillion rubles in revenue compared to the figures set in the budget law.
– This is stated in the operational report of the Accounting Chamber following the first quarter results. According to the auditors, the budget revenues for the year might amount to 38.2 trillion rubles. This is 2.1 trillion rubles, or 5.2%, less than the original budget plan.
– The largest shortfall is expected in oil and gas revenues. The Accounting Chamber forecasts them at 7.8 trillion rubles, which is 1.1 trillion rubles less than planned.
– Non-oil and gas revenues may also fall short of the forecast by about 1 trillion rubles, totaling approximately 30.3 trillion rubles.
– The main reason for the reduction in oil and gas revenues was the drop in oil prices and the strengthening of the ruble.
– The 2026 budget was calculated based on an average Urals oil price of $59 per barrel and an exchange rate of 92 rubles per dollar. In the first quarter, the average Urals price was only $54.2 per barrel, and the average exchange rate was 78.2 rubles per dollar.
– The strengthening of the ruble also negatively impacted revenues from import VAT and customs duties. Despite tax increases and additional one-time payments, non-oil and gas revenue inflows remain below planned levels.
– At the same time, government spending continues to grow. As of April 1, the planned expenditures of the federal budget were increased by nearly 0.5 trillion rubles to 44.6 trillion rubles.
– The situation highlights the continued high dependency of Russian public finances on oil and gas export revenues. The decline in energy prices and issues with export earnings are increasingly affecting the sustainability of the federal budget.
4. Russian nuclear fuel imports to the EU have increased more than fivefold.
– European Union countries sharply increased purchases of Russian nuclear fuel from January to April 2026. According to Eurostat, the import value during this period rose more than five times compared to the same period last year — from 31.9 million euros to 172.6 million euros.
– In physical terms, deliveries also increased, though much more modestly — from 253.2 to 280.9 tons. This indicates a significant increase in the average cost of imported products. The category of nuclear fuel includes uranium, plutonium, and their compounds. Overall, in 2025, EU countries purchased such products from Russia for 347.9 million euros.
– The main buyers remain the Netherlands and France, accounting for over 90% of all Russian nuclear fuel purchases in the European Union.
– The issue of dependence on the Russian nuclear sector remains a subject of discussion in the EU. At the beginning of the year, executives from Urenco and Orano called on European authorities to develop a phased plan to phase out imports of enriched uranium from Russia.
– In their opinion, maintaining such supplies creates a long-term dependence on Russian technology and raw materials. Russia is estimated to still supply about a quarter of Europe’s enriched uranium needs.
– Meanwhile, the lower cost of Russian fuel continues to support demand for it among certain European nuclear energy operators.
– The European Commission earlier stated its intention to propose restrictions on the import of Russian nuclear fuel and technology, but a final decision has yet to be made.
– Some EU countries continue to cooperate with the Russian nuclear industry, and Hungary is implementing a project to build new nuclear power plant units with the participation of Rosatom.
5. Russia is shipping oil at near-record rates due to significant damage to refineries.
– Russian maritime oil exports for the four weeks ending June 14 increased to 3.83 million barrels per day — the highest level since the beginning of 2026. The average volume of maritime shipments of Russian oil since the beginning of the year reached 3.49 million barrels per day, the best result since 2022.
– The growth in exports occurs despite the reduction in oil production. One of the main reasons has been shutdowns and repairs at refineries after attacks by Ukrainian drones. Due to reduced internal processing, some raw materials previously sent to refineries have been redirected to export markets.
– The volume of Russian oil at sea has stabilized at over 120 million barrels. This is about 25% more than the minimum recorded in April. Almost all of this volume is on tankers that are in transit, not on ships idling in ports or at anchorage.
– Despite the current increase in supplies, the rise in exports is partly related to problems within the Russian refining sector itself.
– A series of strikes on refineries forced companies to cut processing and seek opportunities to sell excess raw materials abroad, further highlighting the vulnerability of the Russian fuel infrastructure.
6. Trump admitted the possibility of reinstating US sanctions on Russian oil following agreements with Iran.
– U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Washington may soon reinstate sanctions on Russian oil following agreements with Iran regarding the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
– Speaking at the G7 summit, Trump recalled that the United States had previously temporarily eased restrictions on Russian oil supplies to avoid disruptions in the global energy market.
– At the same time, he noted that the situation has changed. “We lifted the sanctions because we didn’t want to impede oil supply. But we’ll soon be ready to do so,” Trump told reporters.
– The current U.S. license allowing certain operations with Russian oil and petroleum products loaded onto ships before the restrictions were imposed ends on June 17.
– Trump’s statement came after a preliminary agreement was reached between the U.S. and Iran on the gradual resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
– The document calls for the phased resumption of shipping over 30 days, with its official signing scheduled for June 19 in Geneva.
– If the U.S. decides not to extend the existing exemptions from the sanctions regime, it could create additional difficulties for the export of Russian oil and put more pressure on the federal budget, which is already facing a reduction in oil and gas revenues.
7. G7 leaders agreed to increase pressure on Russia over oil and gas exports.
– The “Group of Seven” countries reached a consensus on the need to intensify economic pressure on Russia and expand support for Ukraine. The implementation of new restrictions on Russian oil and gas exports is to be a key tool.
– This consensus was achieved during talks involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the summit in France.
– Participants concluded that it is necessary to increase pressure on Russia while simultaneously enhancing support for Ukraine. Among the discussed measures were new sanctions against the export of Russian oil and gas.
– Several G7 countries have already taken initial steps to intensify sanction pressure. The United Kingdom announced a new package of restrictions against the Russian energy sector and the “shadow fleet” used to bypass sanctions.
– Canada also announced new sanctions measures.
– If the agreements are implemented, Russia may face further restrictions on energy exports, which remain a key source of revenues for the federal budget.
8. Finland and Sweden called on the EU to strengthen visa restrictions for Russian citizens.
– The foreign ministers of Finland and Sweden have called on the European Commission and the member countries of the European Union to strengthen visa issuance rules for Russian citizens.
– Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen stated that Russia continues to strike civilian targets in Ukraine, while thousands of Russian tourists travel freely in European countries. According to her, the EU should not allow citizens of the aggressor country to enjoy the benefits of the European way of life while the Russian authorities continue their war against Ukraine.
– In addition to tightening visa policy, Finland and Sweden proposed that the European Commission develop a mechanism to more effectively identify individuals who participated in the war against Ukraine and prevent their entry into the Schengen area.
– The initiative was announced ahead of the summer tourist season, when the number of trips by Russian citizens to European countries traditionally increases. Helsinki and Stockholm believe that current restrictions need to be revised given the ongoing Russian aggression against Ukraine.
– Since the start of the full-scale war, several EU countries have already restricted the issuance of tourist visas to Russian citizens or significantly tightened the requirements for obtaining them. Meanwhile, a unified pan-European ban on tourist trips for Russians has not yet been introduced.
9. Ukrainian defense forces attack the Moscow oil refinery in Kapotnya again.
– The Moscow refinery is part of the Gazprom Neft structure, has been operating since 1938, and is considered one of the largest oil refineries in Russia. Its design capacity is about 11 million tons of oil per year.
10. Over 500 flights canceled and delayed at Moscow airports due to drone attack.
– At the Moscow air hub, 527 flights were canceled and delayed due to a drone attack.
– The largest impact of the attack was at Sheremetyevo airport, where 50 flights were canceled upon departure and 60 upon arrival. Another 147 flights were delayed.
– At Vnukovo, 41 flights were canceled, and another 133 were delayed. At Domodedovo, 19 flights were canceled, and 72 were delayed. Zhukovsky also experienced delays and cancellations of flights.
– The attack was one of the most extensive during the entire period of the full-scale war and once again demonstrated the vulnerability of transport infrastructure deep inside Russia.
– The disruption of Moscow airports has already affected domestic and international air transportation, causing flight delays in many regions of Russia.
11. Russia is increasing its debts due to growing military expenses that exceed the budget’s capacity.
– The Russian authorities are increasingly resorting to domestic borrowing to finance the war against Ukraine. Due to international sanctions, access to external funding sources for Moscow is significantly limited, forcing the Kremlin to cover the budget deficit through expensive domestic loans.
– Over the next ten years, Russia will spend at least 15% of its GDP on interest payments on the national debt. This approximately corresponds to the current total national debt of the country.
– This year, the Russian government plans to increase the volume of domestic bond placement since the military economy requires additional resources. Defense spending may exceed the initial plan by 4–5 trillion rubles, or nearly 40%.
– According to the budget law, the Russian government planned to raise slightly more than 4 trillion rubles in the domestic market, and the debt ceiling for 2026 was set at 37.4 trillion rubles. However, the situation is rapidly deteriorating.
– In the first five months of the year, the federal budget deficit has already reached 6 trillion rubles, or 2.6% of GDP. This is about 60% more than the planned deficit for the entire year 2026. Meanwhile, the established debt ceiling is almost exhausted.
– Despite attempts by the Ministry of Finance to cut the deficit through reserves and cutting certain expenditures, the government, according to sources, will have to additionally borrow 2–3 trillion rubles by the end of the year. The cost of servicing the debt is also rapidly increasing.
– In 2026, Russia plans to spend nearly 4 trillion rubles just on debt repayment and servicing. This is about 9% of all federal expenditures. By volume, this item has already become the fifth largest in the budget after spending on defense, security, social policy, and the economy. The growing debt burden indicates that the war is increasingly depleting Russia’s financial resources.
– Amid declining oil and gas revenues, high interest rates, and increased military spending, the Kremlin is increasingly forced to shift the war’s financing onto future generations of taxpayers.
12. Oil production in Russia fell 10% below the plan due to strikes on oil infrastructure.
– Attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have reduced oil production: in May 2026, Russia produced 8.7 million barrels per day — 5% less than a year ago, and 10% below the plan.
– Due to ongoing strikes on oil infrastructure, the IEA lowered the forecast for Russian oil production in 2026 by 200 thousand barrels per day — to 8.95 million barrels.
– Due to refinery disruptions, Russia has reoriented the industry to supply the domestic market and crude oil exports, which increased by 490 thousand barrels per day — to 5.2 million, the highest since 2022.
– Despite the increase in exports, in May, Russia’s revenues from oil and oil products decreased by $710 million — to $20.8 billion due to falling global oil prices.
– According to the IEA, strikes on oil infrastructure are affecting Russia’s fuel and energy complex, forcing reductions in processing and changes in exports.
13. Russia recorded the highest increase in gasoline prices since the start of the war.
– Gasoline prices in Russia continue to rise sharply amidst problems in the oil refining sector. According to Rosstat, during the week from June 9 to 15, the average gasoline price at gas stations increased by 0.95%, marking the largest weekly jump since the onset of the full-scale war against Ukraine.
– In the last two weeks, gasoline prices have risen by 1.93%, more than double the increase for the entire month of May, when prices rose by 0.85%. Fuel inflation has been accelerating for five consecutive weeks. While at the end of May, growth was 0.11–0.34% per week, it accelerated to 0.45% at the beginning of June, then to 0.92%, and now has almost reached 1%.
– German economist Janis Kluge notes that since the beginning of the year, gasoline in Russia has increased by 6.61%. This is about twice as much as for the same period in 2025, three times more than in 2023–2024, and more than six times higher than the figures for 2022.
– The sharp price increase is related to disruptions in the operation of oil refineries following attacks by Ukrainian drones. In June, the Moscow Refinery, TANECO in Nizhnekamsk, the Kuibyshev Refinery, and the Volgograd Refinery temporarily halted or reduced production. Due to reduced processing, some regions became dependent on fuel supplies from other parts of the country, creating additional pressure on prices and logistics.
– The increase in gasoline costs has affected 78 regions of Russia. At the same time, diesel fuel prices have risen by 5.7% since the beginning of the year, with shortages already reported by farmers in the southern and central regions of the country.
14. Russia began importing gasoline from Asia after nearly a third of refinery capacities shut down.
– Russia began purchasing gasoline overseas by sea for the first time in a long period to compensate for the fuel shortage that arose after a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries. The gasoline will be delivered to one of Russia’s western ports from an Asian country.
– The specific supplier is not named by sources. Last year, Russian authorities were already considering purchasing fuel from China, Singapore, and South Korea after large-scale refinery strikes.
– Concurrently, Moscow sharply increased gasoline purchases from Belarus. From January to May, supplies from Belarusian oil refineries increased 13 times, reaching 270,000 tons. Import of diesel fuel tripled during the same period to 179,000 tons.
– Additionally, the Russian side made inquiries regarding possible gasoline supplies to Kazakhstan. However, neither Belarus nor Kazakhstan has sufficient free capacities to significantly impact the Russian fuel market.
– According to Energy Intelligence, at the beginning of June, oil refining volumes in Russia fell to the lowest level in the past 21 years — less than 4 million barrels per day.
– Since the beginning of the year, about 30% of Russian refineries’ capacities, or roughly 2.1 million barrels per day, have been idle due to a series of drone attacks.
– The need to import gasoline is atypical for Russia, which traditionally ranks among the largest global exporters of oil products.
15. Expectations of Russian businesses dropped to a minimum since the time of mobilization.
– The mood of Russian businesses continues to deteriorate. According to a monitoring of enterprises conducted by the Bank of Russia, the business climate indicator decreased from 1.7 to 1.1 points in June. This is one of the lowest rates in recent years and a level close to the minima recorded after the mobilization announcement in the fall of 2022.
– The main reason was the sharp deterioration in entrepreneurs’ expectations regarding the future economic situation. The expectations index decreased from 8.9 to 7.3 points, repeating the result of January 2026. At that time, the Russian economy experienced a decline, and GDP contracted by 1.7%.
– Assessments of the current business situation have remained negative for nine consecutive months. In June, this indicator was minus 4.9 points compared to minus 5.2 points in May.
– The deterioration of business sentiments indicates growing problems in the Russian economy. High interest rates, labor shortages, sanction pressures, and increased military spending continue to negatively impact business activity and restrain economic growth.
16. The EU is preparing emergency trade measures to support Armenia after restrictions from Russia.
– The European Union is preparing a package of emergency trade measures to support Armenia following Russia’s imposed restrictions on the import of Armenian goods.
– The European Commission is developing a mechanism that provides for the reduction of tariffs on the supply of Armenian agricultural and food products to EU countries. It is expected that the measures will cover most of the 20 product categories affected by Russian restrictions.
– The total value of this export is estimated at approximately 420 million euros per year. The initiative was a response to the increased trade pressure from Moscow, which in recent months has increasingly used economic leverage in relations with Yerevan amid worsening political relations between the countries.
17. The United Kingdom has imposed the largest fine for violating sanctions against Russia.
– The United Kingdom imposed a fine of over 1 million pounds (approximately 1.3 million dollars) on the British branch of the American company Sabre Corp. for violating the sanctions regime against Russia. This is the largest fine applied by the British regulator for violations of anti-Russian sanctions since the start of the full-scale war.
– According to the UK Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI), the British subsidiary of Sabre maintained access for the Russian airline “Ural Airlines” to its global booking and ticket sales system for seven months after the sanctions were implemented in 2022.
– After payments to the company’s account in the UK began to be blocked due to sanctions, Sabre sought alternative ways to receive funds from the Russian carrier. Specifically, the company offered “Ural Airlines” to make a test payment to an account in a bank outside the United Kingdom for further financial transactions.
– OFSI considered such actions as an attempt to circumvent the sanctions regime. The regulator emphasized that sanctions prohibit not only direct operations with sanctioned entities but also any actions aimed at circumventing established restrictions.
– Sabre stated that they voluntarily notified the regulator of the violation and fully cooperated during the investigation. The company also emphasized that it takes its legal and ethical commitments seriously.
– The decision of the British authorities demonstrates increased control over compliance with sanctions against Russia and a readiness to penalize not only Russian companies but also Western businesses that help maintain economic ties with the aggressor country.
