On March 11, 2022, Russian attackers, taking off from an airfield in Belarus, entered Ukrainian airspace, turned around near the settlements of Horodychi and Tumeni, and struck the Belarusian village of Kopani. According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this was a planned provocation by Russia to involve Belarus in the war. Ukrainian border guards and the Armed Forces immediately denied involvement in the shelling of Belarus and warned about Russia’s preparation of informational special operations.
At that time, the Belarusian leadership was wise enough not to fall for the provocation, especially as it was so obviously staged and well known.
On November 26, 1939, Soviet artillery fired at Soviet troops near the village of Mainila near the Finnish border and used it as a pretext to invade Finland.
Just like a twin of Stalinism, the Nazi regime staged an attack on German troops in Gleiwitz to justify the invasion of Poland.
Despite the exposure of the true authorship of these provocations, the Russians act according to their usual templates.
On July 17, 2014, a Russian crew, aided by proxy terrorists, used a Russian Buk missile system to shoot down Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-17. The Russians did everything to blame Ukraine. However, the Hague tribunal clearly established their responsibility. Moreover, the target was apparently supposed to be a Russian flight, not a Malaysian one. To justify a full-scale invasion back in 2014. But something went wrong…
With such a history, the behavior of the self-proclaimed Belarusian president Lukashenko, who avoids direct engagement with Ukrainian forces in every way possible, is quite understandable.
At the end of February – in March 2022, the wounded Russians in Belarusian hospitals, the remains of the “Kyiv parade units,” and the “veterans of digging in the Red Forest” clearly demonstrated what the Armed Forces of Ukraine do and will do to intruders.
So when the topic of a “Belarusian attack” began to circulate in the Ukrainian information space, it seemed more like an attempt to distract from the domestic agenda, including corruption scandals. Especially as other scare tactics, like the “nuclear threat,” echoed in unison.
However, it is no coincidence that “positive bloggers” serving the Ukrainian authorities and creators of Russian informational and psychological operations use the same methods.
Belarusian representatives also began speaking in a threatening tone – something about drones violating airspace. SBS commander “Madyar” Brodi advised Lukashenko not to confront Ukraine, as approximately 500 targets are identified. He mumbled something aggressive, but after his deceitful assurances in 2022 about “not using Belarusian territory” for aggression, few people care about his words.
Actions, however, are of interest.
It seems the Russians have decided to “repeat” the provocation by accusing Ukraine of attacking… a Belarusian bus with children.
Although Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets provided the Belarusian side with exhaustive arguments regarding the true culprits of the incident, some “CIS representative” Ihor Nzaruk dared to state: “Belarus reserves the right to ‘take measures’ to ‘protect the lives of its citizens.'”
Telegram channels in Ukraine reported his words as a “threat of strikes on Ukraine”… We await further escalation of statements.
UPD: We’ve been waiting. Volodymyr Zelensky urged Lukashenko to withdraw within a week the “equipment” that adjusts “fire on Ukrainian population,” “otherwise we’ll do it”…
… Although it would be better to think several steps ahead.
Against the backdrop of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ successes in striking targets in Russia, the Belarusian side probably has little desire to add to the target list for SBS, SBU, GUR, and others.
However, for Russia, involving Belarus in the war is a measure of at least some enhancement. They did not hesitate to involve North Korea in 2024, so what stops them from throwing Belarusians into the meat grinder?
Despite the bleak prospects for Belarus’s involvement, it clearly will not strengthen Ukraine’s position. It’s not a question for SBS. The military do and say what they must: that’s their job.
But diplomats and information warfare specialists, instead of stirring expectations of a “small victorious war in the north,” should engage in what will truly harm the Russian aggressor. Reducing Belarus’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Not pandering to mutual enemy imagery and increasing the likelihood of suicidal actions by Minsk, but showing it an exit that will benefit both Ukrainians and Belarusians, but not Putin.
This is a task for serious diplomacy, but by solving such tasks, the enemy is deprived of support, and such steps lead to victory.
It would be wise for someone to think strategically (c) and use Moscow’s clearly disadvantageous initiatives for Minsk to deepen the rift between them.
Collage: ТСН
