Information on current Russian losses due to sanctions as of 02.07.2026.
1. Ukraine’s defense forces have repeatedly attacked one of Russia’s largest refineries, which supplies fuel to the Moscow region.
– On the night of July 2, Ukrainian drones struck the Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez refinery in the city of Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod region.
– The enterprise is Lukoil’s largest refinery, the fourth largest in Russia, and one of the key producers of gasoline. The plant processes about 15 million tons of oil per year, producing up to 5 million tons of gasoline and supplying fuel to, among others, the Moscow region.
– This is the second attack on the enterprise in the past week. After the strike on June 24, the refinery halted its AVT-5 primary oil processing unit, which provides about 25% of its production capacity.
– Despite attempts to resume operations using other units, the plant has been hit again.
2. The price of Russian export oil Urals has dropped to $44.96 per barrel.
– Since the beginning of June, Urals has decreased by approximately 40%, and after the short-term price spike due to the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz, it returned to early March levels.
– Despite record crude oil exports — 4.13 million barrels per day, revenues from its sale fell by a third compared to May — to $1.9 billion per week.
– Due to falling oil prices, Russia’s oil and gas budget revenues in January–May decreased by 30%, and the deficit at the end of June increased to 6.4 trillion rubles — almost twice the plan for the entire 2026.
– The liquid part of the Russian National Wealth Fund decreased to 3.4 trillion rubles — almost three times less than before the full-scale war.
– To cover the deficit, Russian authorities may resort to money issuance or tax increases after the parliamentary elections.
3. Russians are massively withdrawing cash from banks: the outflow has reached nearly 13 billion rubles daily.
– In Russia, for the fifth consecutive month, there has been an outflow of funds from the banking system into cash. According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in June, the amount of cash in circulation increased by another 449.7 billion rubles, which is 18% more than in May.
– Overall, from February to June, the amount of cash in the economy increased by 1.9 trillion rubles. On average, individuals and businesses withdrew about 12.6 billion rubles from banks daily.
– The banking sector itself describes the situation as alarming. A representative of Sberbank stated that the withdrawn cash is practically not returning to the banking system, indicating funds are being “kept under mattresses” and a decrease in trust in financial institutions.
– This trend is linked to growing distrust of the financial system, expansion of the shadow economy due to tax pressure, and concerns over potential communication and internet disruptions.
4. The fuel crisis in Russia accelerated gasoline price growth to nearly 20% annually.
– The fuel crisis in Russia, caused by a series of strikes by Ukrainian drones on refineries, continues to drive inflation.
– According to Rosstat, in the week from June 23 to 29, gasoline prices increased by another 1.6%, and diesel fuel by 2.2%. Since the beginning of the year, gasoline prices have risen by 11.6%, and diesel by 11%.
– On an annual basis, the increase in gasoline prices reached 19.7%, the highest since 2010. In June, gasoline prices rose by 6.7%, one of the sharpest monthly jumps in the last 25 years.
– The most acute situation is in occupied Crimea, where due to supply issues after strikes on logistics infrastructure, gasoline is sold for 185–200 rubles per liter.
5. Russia, due to the fuel crisis, began importing gasoline from India and increased oil discounts.
– Russia simultaneously sells oil to India with increasing discounts and purchases gasoline from Indian refineries, attempting to overcome the fuel shortage caused by the strikes of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on Russian oil refining infrastructure.
– The discount on Russian Urals oil for Indian buyers almost doubled in the past two weeks — from $4 to $7 per barrel relative to Brent. The growth in discounts is linked to the surplus of Russian oil on the market and competition with suppliers from the Gulf countries. Meanwhile, Moscow has already begun importing gasoline from India.
– At least 60,000 tons of gasoline have been sent to Russia, and overall the country plans to purchase up to 400,000 tons per month from India, Belarus, and other countries. Belarus has already nearly tripled gasoline supplies to Russia by rail.
– India benefits doubly: buying Russian oil with growing discounts and selling ready fuel to Russia, which became scarce after a series of attacks on Russian refineries.
– According to estimates by the Indian Express, from 2022 to 2025, India has already saved about $13 billion by purchasing Russian oil at a discount.
6. The ruble experienced the strongest monthly decline since 2022 amid the fuel crisis and increased demand for currency.
– In June, the Russian currency market experienced its strongest monthly decline in nearly four years. The exchange rate of the yuan against the ruble increased by 10.8% — the most significant rise since December 2022.
– The dollar in the over-the-counter market increased by 10.75% to 78.69 rubles, and the euro by 8.3% to 89.8 rubles. The weakening of the ruble is linked to the rising demand for foreign currency.
– Russian companies are actively buying up currency to pay for gasoline imports, which Moscow is forced to purchase abroad due to a fuel shortage caused by strikes by Ukraine’s Defense Forces on Russian refineries.
– Additional pressure on the ruble is coming from the decline in global oil prices, a decrease in the Russian stock market, and increased currency purchases by the Central Bank to replenish the National Wealth Fund.
– By the end of the year, the dollar exchange rate may rise to 87 rubles, and by 2027 to 95 rubles.
7. In Finland, a record sentence has been passed for circumventing sanctions in favor of Russia.
– In Finland, the South Karelia District Court sentenced the owner of the transportation company Idän Liikenteenvälitys IL Oy to 3 years and 8 months in prison for violating EU sanctions against Russia. This is one of the harshest sentences in cases involving circumvention of anti-Russian sanctions.
– The investigation established that in 2022–2023, the company illegally supplied 164 pieces of equipment to Russia — 135 trucks and 29 trailers — with a total value of about 17 million euros.
– To circumvent the sanctions, the equipment was declared as exports to Turkey or Kazakhstan, but the court found that the actual destination was Russia, where the trucks underwent customs clearance through a Russian importer company.
– In addition to the prison term, the court ordered the businessman to return 608,000 euros of illegally obtained profits and confiscated property worth 6 million euros. The court described the case as exceptional in its scale and nature.
8. China secretly trained Russian military personnel in nuclear, chemical, and biological warfare.
– In 2025, China conducted a secret training program for Russian military personnel focused on actions in the context of weapons of mass destruction.
– The program was personally approved by the Russian Minister of Defense. The training took place in the second half of 2025 in Beijing, involving at least four Russian and Chinese generals.
– One of the three-week courses was dedicated to protection against nuclear, chemical, and biological threats. Russian military personnel were trained in chemical and radiation reconnaissance and how to protect ventilation systems from contamination.
– Documents include photographs of classes led by Chinese instructors, who demonstrated, among other things, a model of a nuclear reactor.
– The training agreement was signed by representatives of the armies of China and Russia, with the Russian delegation headed by the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces.
– European officials believe that the involvement of generals and training for actions under conditions involving weapons of mass destruction indicate deepening strategic military cooperation between China and Russia.
