Information on current losses of Russia due to sanctions as of 28.09.2026.
1. Ukrainian drones attacked the Krasnodar region of Russia on the night of September 28.
– After the attack in the Novotitarovskaya Stanitsa of the Dinsky District, a fire broke out on the territory of an oil depot. Eyewitnesses reported explosions, Russian air defense activity, and the flight of drones.
– According to monitoring channels, the fire occurred at the “Edelweiss-95” oil depot. “Edelweiss-95” is involved in the storage and wholesale of AI-92, AI-95, and AI-100 gasoline and diesel fuel, and has a railway branch for receiving and shipping oil products.
2. Russia predicts a significant slowdown in the growth of the defense industry complex.
– After a rapid increase in military production in 2023–2025, the Ministry of Economic Development expects a significant decline in growth rates in the coming years.
– The production of computers, electronic and optical products, after growing by 12.9% in 2025, will further grow at about 5% per year. By 2029, its volume will be 22.5% higher than in 2025.
– The production of finished metal products is expected to grow by 10.6% in 2026, but further the rates will decrease to 2–3% per year. In total, from 2026 to 2029, output in this sector will increase by 19.6%.
– The largest growth will be in the production of other transport vehicles and equipment, including the production of drones. However, even here the Russian government predicts a rapid slowdown: after a 33.9% growth in 2025, +22.4% is expected in 2026, +14.4% in 2027, and only +8.9% in 2029.
– After two years of rapid production expansion, Russian industry is transitioning to much lower growth rates, particularly in sectors that largely support military production.
– Further production slowdown means that the Russian economy’s ability to quickly ramp up arms production is becoming increasingly limited.
3. There has been a sharp increase in the number of bankruptcies among construction companies in Russia.
– As of early September, 1,454 bankruptcy cases were opened compared to 1,089 in June — over three months, the rate increased by more than 30%. Over the year, the number of such cases increased by 41%. The majority of bankruptcies involve regional developers.
– Issues in the industry are linked to the declining demand for housing and the high cost of loans. Construction companies face a drop in orders, reduced investment activity, and budget construction, along with high costs of servicing loans.
– An additional blow to the market will be the change in family mortgage conditions from October 1. The rate for new loans will depend on the number of children: in most regions, it will be 10% for families with one child, 8% with two, 6% with three, 4% with four, and 2% with five or more children. Rates will be higher for four metropolitan regions. The state also limited the subsidy period for preferential mortgages to 15 years.
– The worsening situation in construction already poses risks for housing delivery: the Russian Ministry of Construction notes issues with plan fulfillment in several regions.
4. The Russian authorities have reduced funding for most key federal healthcare projects.
– Eight out of 11 medical programs in 2026 received less funding than the previous year, with the total funding for these projects reduced by 51% — from 366 billion to 181.14 billion rubles.
– The funding for the modernization of primary healthcare was cut the most — by 52%, to 59.1 billion rubles compared to 122.47 billion the previous year. These funds were meant for the construction and repair of clinics in the regions.
– Funding for the federal project to combat cancer diseases fell more than threefold — from 148.46 billion to 44.9 billion rubles. The program provided for the purchase of medical equipment and drugs for oncology dispensaries.
– Expenditures on the development of federal medical organizations were reduced by 38%, to 16.16 billion rubles. Funding for the ambulance system was also reduced by 27%, to 14.28 billion rubles.
– The reduction in civilian medical expenditures is occurring amidst a sharp increase in military spending and the worsening state of the Russian budget. In the first half of the year, Russia spent 10.7 trillion rubles on war and military needs — 43.8% of federal expenditures. Meanwhile, the government increased the estimated budget deficit for 2026 to approximately 6.9 trillion rubles, or about 3% of GDP.
5. Russia is reducing oil supplies to India, one of its main crude buyers.
– Indian refineries expect further reduction in Russian supplies in October and November due to reduced exports and rising demand from China.
– According to Kpler, in September Russian oil deliveries to India will decrease to approximately 1.75 million barrels per day — the lowest level since April. In August, they had already fallen by 16.5% compared to July — to about 2.1 million barrels per day.
– At the same time, China is increasing its purchases of Russian oil. Chinese buyers are ready to pre-book shipments and offer higher prices than Indian refineries. As a result, Russia is increasingly dependent on Chinese demand to maintain exports. Another problem for Russia has been attacks on its oil infrastructure.
– In Novorossiysk, oil shipments have been cut by about half following drone strikes and infrastructure damage. Due to limited export capabilities, Russian companies have to allocate smaller volumes among Asian buyers.
– India, meanwhile, has the opportunity to offset the reduction in Russian supplies with other suppliers. Indian refineries are already increasing purchases on the spot market, and in August oil imports from Iraq increased by about 25%.
– For Russia, this means the risk of losing part of the Indian market and further concentrating exports to China. If competition for Russian oil in Asia weakens, it could again increase pressure on Urals prices and force Russian sellers to increase discounts.
6. Putin has transferred the assets of the German retail chain Metro under temporary management.
– Metro has 91 stores in Russia, employing over 10,000 people. In the first nine months of the 2025/26 financial year, sales of the Russian unit increased by 10.3% — to 2.14 billion euros.
– The transfer of Metro was another case of the de facto establishment of Russian control over the assets of a foreign company. In September alone, the Russian assets of Nestlé, Auchan, “Leman PRO,” and FM Logistic were already placed under temporary management.
– Since 2023, Russian authorities have placed the assets of 27 foreign companies and groups under temporary management. As of September 25, 20 companies and groups remained under this regime. Among the first were the assets of Germany’s Uniper and Finland’s Fortum.
7. The EU may impose sanctions against the Irish plant Aughinish Alumina, owned by the Russian aluminum giant “International Company PJSC “United Company “RUSAL” and supplying alumina to Russia.
– Several EU countries are seeking to include the enterprise in a new package of sanctions. The plant in western Ireland is not under restrictions, although its supplies to Russia have sharply increased from 24% of exports in 2021 to 68% in 2025.
– Alumina from Aughinish Alumina is supplied to Russian aluminum plants in Siberia. The aluminum produced from it is distributed through the trader ASK to more than 100 Russian defense companies. The Irish plant also supplies alumina to European consumers. In 2026, they received about 0.3 million tons.
– This volume can be replaced by other suppliers, whereas sanctions against the plant may create additional problems for the Russian aluminum industry.
8. India plans to increase purchases of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the United States by more than 25% in 2027.
– New Delhi is simultaneously diversifying energy supplies due to disruptions in the Middle East and the risk of new American sanctions for trade with Russia. The Indian government has instructed three companies to increase the share of American LNG to at least 15% of imports by 2027 from 10% this year.
– The US has already become the largest supplier of LNG to India: along with spot deliveries from January to August, they reached a record 3.9 million tons.
– State-owned oil refining companies Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum plan to purchase up to five LNG cargoes of 46,000 tons monthly from the US compared to four in 2026.
– Strengthening India’s energy ties with the US creates additional risks for Russian suppliers. New Delhi remains one of the largest buyers of Russian oil, but Indian refiners are already seeking alternative supplies due to the threat of new US sanctions.
– In August, imports of Russian oil to India decreased by 16.5% — to approximately 2.1 million barrels per day, with a further decline expected in September to about 1.9 million barrels per day.
– For Russia, this implies the risk of further reduction of one of the key energy export markets. If Indian companies continue to switch to alternative supplies due to sanction risks, it will be more challenging for Russian oil companies to maintain current export volumes to India.
9. The company Oxygen Forensics, which the US accuses of concealing Russian control, participated in EU-funded projects, and its technologies were used by law enforcement agencies in Germany, Spain, Italy, and Poland.
– Oxygen Forensics develops software for extracting and analyzing data from smartphones and computers. Its technologies have been used in at least two EU projects aimed at improving the collection, processing, and sharing of digital evidence in criminal investigations.
– One of them is EVIDENCE, which received over €1.9 million in EU funding between 2014–2016. Oxygen Forensics advised project participants on working with digital evidence. Among the partners and related structures were Europol, Eurojust, and the digital forensics unit of the European Anti-Fraud Office.
– The second project is INSPECTr, funded under the Horizon 2020 program. It aimed to help European police unify and analyze digital evidence obtained using various tools. The project continued working until 2023.
– Subsequently, Oxygen Forensics’ products were accredited and purchased by national law enforcement agencies in Germany, Spain, Italy, and Poland. The company also remained mentioned on the websites of both European projects.
– In the USA, Oxygen Forensics is currently involved in a criminal case. The US Department of Justice claims that the company was effectively owned and managed by five Russian citizens, and its software was developed in Russia. Lee Reiber and Oleg Davidov were arrested, charged with conspiracy to commit fraud. According to US prosecutors, Russian control was concealed after the imposition of sanctions in 2022.
– The company, which US prosecutors accuse of concealing Russian origin and control, had already integrated its technologies into European digital forensics projects, and its products were purchased by law enforcement agencies in several EU countries.
10. Hungary’s largest bank, OTP Bank, is considering a complete exit from Russia.
– The strategy review started amid talks about purchasing the Baltic bank Luminor, drawing attention to OTP’s Russian business. OTP remains one of the few large European banks continuing operations in Russia after the onset of the full-scale war.
– Among the clients of the bank’s Russian division were companies controlled by “Gazprom” and firms providing services to organizations associated with Russian foreign intelligence.
– The negotiations to buy Luminor could become OTP’s largest acquisition. The bank aims to expand its presence in the Eurozone, while maintaining business in Russia creates additional regulatory and reputational risks. OTP continues to profit from its Russian division, but the ability to repatriate these funds is limited.
– According to Scope Ratings, the capital effect of an orderly exit from the Russian market by OTP would currently be positive for the group.
