A shocking news is spreading on Russian propaganda platforms – a Ukrainian drone hit a bus carrying children who were traveling from Belarus to relax in Gelendzhik!
The strike occurred when the bus was on the A-240 highway in the Pochep district of the Bryansk region. Preliminary reports indicate that a female escort was killed, and six people were injured, including four teenagers.
Of course, even without any results from the investigation or completion of forensic actions, the Russian side hysterically accuses Ukraine of the strike, while news feeds show photos and videos of the attacked bus. Honestly, they would have been better off not publishing these photos, as it’s just a self-incrimination!
But let’s take it step by step.
Before dissecting this provocation organized by the Russian side, even without any intrigue, let me immediately reveal the cards: I want to note that I do not understand why tourist buses continue to operate in Russia, a country at war with active military operations. Sending children on vacation to Russia, to Gelendzhik, what irresponsible parents!
Today, the entire Russian territory is a zone of hostilities and potential risks for everyone there!
Now let’s return to the tragedy in the Bryansk region.
First, I want you to understand what the A-240 highway and the Pochep district are. This is more than 60 km from the Ukrainian border. This is a very important point for further understanding why we are dealing with a Russian provocation.
Secondly, pay attention to the photo of the damaged bus. By the nature of the damage, it can be concluded that it was a low-power FPV drone. Not a middle-strike drone type like Hornet, but a low-power munition. And this is the most interesting part!
An FPV drone can fly distances up to 20 km, while fiber-optic drones average up to 40 km. Additionally, drones are launched from a closed position for operator safety, meaning there is a safe zone of at least 5 km.
Thus, a Ukrainian FPV drone could not have flown from Ukraine to strike a bus more than 60 km from the border, as it would have had to cover more than 65 km.
Logically speaking, if it were a fiber-optic drone, it would have been launched roughly from the territory of the Pogarsky district of the Bryansk region, the village of Pogar or Trubchevsk, and if it were a regular FPV drone, it would have had to be launched from the very same Pochep district of the Bryansk region!
I don’t recall Ukraine controlling such an area and depth in the Bryansk region today, and if one imagines the penetration of some sabotage and reconnaissance group, they would have to overcome 20 to 40 km of a well-patrolled and controlled zone in the Bryansk region. And all for what? To attack a bus with children using an FPV drone? Even though the same could have been done with a middle-strike drone…
Thirdly, there are non-technical aspects. Just recently, the so-called president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, gave an interview in which he apologized to Volodymyr Zelensky and assured Ukraine’s president that Minsk does not plan to attack our country. This interview was apparently not received well in the Kremlin and could very well have prompted an attempt to put Lukashenko in his place with such a provocative terrorist act.
After an attack on a bus carrying children and Russian claims that Ukrainians were responsible, Lukashenko will have to respond. He will have to do so in the context of his recent statements, as well as the clear intention of the Russian side to use this provocation to not so much demonize Ukraine as to draw Belarus into the war against Ukraine.
So.
A bus with Belarusian children traveling to a warring country via a dangerous route is allegedly attacked by a Ukrainian drone, which could not have flown from Ukraine to the site of the terrorist act. This occurred immediately after Lukashenko’s peace-making statements towards Ukraine.
The Russian side, without even conducting a proper investigation, immediately began blaming Ukraine for everything. If investigative actions had been carried out, there was a great risk they would have implicated themselves…
Traveling to Russia is dangerous not only because it is a war zone but also because, at any moment, you may involuntarily become a victim of a Russian provocation, conceived for one purpose or another.
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: “We emphasize that during the specified period, the Ukrainian Defense Forces did not use unmanned aerial vehicles on targets in the Bryansk region.”
Bryansk bus from Yenakiieve. Lukashenko. Traber.
I will now show you where the attack was being prepared from.
Everything is done so disgracefully and uniformly that it’s repulsive to even write about it. However, it’s important to outline the entire context because the Russians have created an informational vortex and are pulling Lukashenko into it.
First, about the buses.
1. Event: On June 17th around 12:30, the acting governor of Bryansk region, Yegor Kovalchuk, published a statement claiming that the Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly attacked a bus with a children’s football team from Gomel using a DRONE OF AIRCRAFT TYPE (!!!), en route to a vacation in Gelendzhik. It was reported that a woman died and 6 people were injured, including 4 children.
Later, clarifications emerged: there were 2 buses with 88 people on board, not from Gomel but from Rechytsa—these were athlete children (football players, dancers…) with their parents and coaches.
In the evening on the “First Informational” channel (Belarus), they show a synchronized statement from the director of Youth Sports School No. 2 of Rechytsa district, Yuri Anufriev, who says that around 11 o’clock (!), one of the coaches on the buses called and reported that an attack had occurred.
That is, according to the public statements of the involved parties, about an hour and a half passed between the incident and the disclosure of information by the Russian (!) side. Obviously, they were coordinating the presentation: reported from Bryansk to Moscow—received approval—released.
2. Simultaneously with Kovalchuk (yet citing him), TASS and other federal media in Russia began spreading the information about the incident. This confirms: the release was synchronized after approval.
Literally: TASS publishes the news citing “Max” Kovalchuk a minute earlier than Kovalchuk manages to duplicate the news on his Telegram.
Approximately 25 minutes after Kovalchuk’s message (exactly at 13:00, TASS at 13:01), they start pushing a video comment (!!!, which had to be recorded, a text of the synchronization drafted) from the Investigative Committee of Russia about the initiation of a criminal case under the article “terrorist act.”
Once again: the video news about the criminal case is released 25 minutes after the first message about the incident. Here you might want to add: be thankful it wasn’t released 25 minutes earlier!
In Russia (!), there is a rapid escalation of two storylines:
• Officials claim that allegedly the Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly intentionally committed a war crime, civilians, children, need international reaction, blah blah blah;
• Various “experts” “explain” why allegedly the Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly attacked a passenger bus in broad daylight (!) – because Ukrainian Nazis want to drag Belarus into the war! The most fanatical claim that the Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly tracked this bus on purpose to stage a provocation!
But in the evening, the same acting governor Kovalchuk comments to the media, saying that the A-240 highway is a busy transit route, etc.
And we know how content appears from busy highways in the event of a UAV attack around 11 a.m. (!!!). There are always witnesses of at least the consequences, different angles, etc. Even when a simple traffic accident occurs, content appears.
Coverage of this incident indicates that the scene was rapidly isolated, and approved photos and filtered visual content made it to the airwaves.
In the end, some incident occurred on Russian territory (the material part is controlled by Russians). The primary source of information is official Russian (i.e., can lie as desired). It immediately frames – allegedly the Armed Forces of Ukraine, allegedly an airplane-type UAV (!!!). The information campaign is managed by Russia. And does it in a much more aggressive tone than Belarus, which plays a subordinate role…
3. Paradoxical fact: there is still no reaction to the incident from the First Lady of Russia, Alexander Lukashenko.
Even Putin, who was at the ASEAN forum in Kazan on his first (!) regional trip in a long time, personally called the Russian Minister of Health a couple of hours later and gave orders. Yet Lukashenko is silent.
It was indirectly highlighted that Lukashenko ordered the repatriation of the victims to Belarus for assistance, but nothing is known about his assessment of the situation.
Belarusian observers note that Grygoryevich has a tradition of not appearing in public on Wednesdays. However, today the information landscape was simply schizophrenic: the airwaves were filled with news from the Bryansk region about the bus with children, while Lukashenko was allegedly listening to some formal reports on crops and milk yields.
Comparing Belarusian and Russian news lines, it’s very clear: Belarusians retransmitted Russian leads for several hours, after which details from Rechytsa, Gomel, and position features emerged.
The Belarusian Foreign Ministry, in general repeating the nonsense about the alleged Armed Forces of Ukraine, at the level of a third-tier spokesperson demanded “exhaustive explanations” from Ukraine. Other officials literally said that one should be cautious when traveling to Russia, especially in areas adjacent to the combat zone.
Ukraine’s reaction is known.
As soon as the provocations emerged, Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets contacted the Belarusian side and dismissed all the nonsense, offering assistance in the investigation. The General Staff denied even theoretical involvement of Ukraine.
At 18:06, Lukashenko is expected to speak out.
Some passengers have already returned to Belarus and will somehow be played. So far, I haven’t found a single comment with a witness statement (!) that there was a UAV. They say: there was an explosion, yes. About the UAV – that’s speculation.
4. It looks like the Russians are trapping Lukashenko.
The objective picture is as follows.
The location of the incident claimed by the Russians is 50 km from the Ukraine-Russia border. If any of our “aircraft-type UAVs” had hit, which are used at such distances, half of the bus would have been destroyed, there would have been a fire, more casualties, etc.
The main point is that “aircraft-type UAVs” do not disappear without a trace. Dozens of videos from the Mariupol-Melitopol highway contain UAV parts after the attack (engine, fuselage remnants, etc.). Therefore, the simplest thing the Russian fabricators could have done was to immediately show the drone remnants. But either the executors lacked the brains or they rushed.
As a result, no drone traces have been presented. Nothing at all!
They might think of “finding something in the grass,” but the value of such post-factum evidence is less than zero.
As new “inputs” arrive, the Russian propaganda version begins to crumble. For example, in Belarus, prompted by the Russians, they started broadcasting that the “aircraft-type UAV”:
1) deliberately targeted the bus wheels, but at the same time
2) was loaded with shrapnel to cause more human casualties!
So deliberately at the wheels? Or as many human casualties as possible?
And the same question: where are the remnants of this UAV?
According to the photos published by the Russians online, even within Russia, people are noting that several windows at the front of the bus and the door glass are broken, yet the large windshield is intact.
The impact of the destructive elements was through the bus with a small radius. The metal of the bus, which is far from armored, was riddled (from the wheel to the roof), but was minimally “torn.”
Expert assessments began to emerge, suggesting that the reported damage could be provoked by:
1) A strike from an FPV drone with a small fragmentation charge (but still there should be drone fragments, and there aren’t any);
2) Dropping a small fragmentation munition from a copter (worked and flew away; answers the question why there are no drone traces);
3) A shot from an under-barrel or automatic grenade launcher using VOG-type ammunition;
4) Using some type of small “bouncing” mine.
All these options exclude Ukraine’s involvement.
Judging by the photos, even a shotgun shot from a short distance is more plausible than a Ukrainian “aircraft-type UAV.”
The military says that the most crude option is usually the correct one.
Among the crudely correct options, for example, the use of a VOG-25P munition from a copter or naturally “bouncing” could be considered. It could just bounce to the height “under the window” of the bus. The effective radius of such a bomb is 2.5 meters, the shrapnel spread is up to 7 m.
The most credible version: Russians, controlling the bus route from the start, struck it with some VOG. From a copter or a shot – it doesn’t matter.
Where exactly a VOG hits a passenger bus doesn’t matter much. There will be material traces and injuries, providing an informational reason for an “attack on children.”
And now the Russians say to Lukashenko: these are your children – react, or who are you then?
6. Grygorovych will be definitely informed by reliable people that Ukraine is absent from this story altogether, it is pure Russian setup. And escalating towards Kyiv is akin to death. Because Kyiv will respond. Lukashenko understands this perfectly well.
Russians can “kill” several “birds” with this attack. From controlling Lukashenko to diverting attention from the murder of an opposition artist in Poland.
But the Belarusian society must realize: some faction in the Kremlin will easily attack Belarusian children (as they kill children in Ukraine today) to create grounds for escalation from Belarus against Ukraine. And if Lukashenko follows this path, it means he traded the lives of Belarusian children for the temporary comfort of his own position.
This story clearly resonates with Lukashenko’s interview with the “Al-Arabiya” channel and runs parallel to the arrest of influential businessman Ilya Traber in St. Petersburg. But more on that in the next episode.
Instead of a period, for clarity.
7. Two weeks ago, Russian bunglers already tried to fix the story with an attack on the “peaceful bus” in Yenakiyevo with an ax. It was even dumber there.
Early in the morning on June 3rd, dear Russians (and not only they) witnessed an incredible sight – a burning oil depot in the port of St. Petersburg on the first day of SPIEF. Pictures and videos were flying across the network.
Something needed to be adjusted. Namely, to generate some other news with the construction “Ukrainians attacked St. Petersburg” so it would appear in searches in all languages.
At 7:00, the temporarily alive gauleiter of the so-called “DNR” Denis Pushilin posted information that on the night of 06/03, a bus route Moscow – Simferopol was allegedly attacked in Yenakiyevo. Fascists-Nazis, etc. It didn’t really catch on.
3.5 hours passed, and someone activated the Lugansk monkey in Russian service – Rodion Miroshnik, working with the Russian Foreign Ministry.
This figure at 10:21 detailed how at 03:40 (deep at night) in the Yenakiyevo area, a bus route St. Petersburg – Simferopol was allegedly attacked by fascists-Nazis. Then the traditional hysteria began. Russians even posted a photo of a burned bus from the “Big World” carrier.
Miroshnik began to be widely quoted, clogging search algorithms with the supposedly burned bus “St. Petersburg – Simferopol.” It turned out that Ukraine attacked not the oil depot in the port of St. Petersburg, but a bus in Yenakiyevo. Traces with Miroshnik’s quote and reference to “St. Petersburg” are still online.
The nuance is this.
If you had checked the website of the Crimean carrier “Big World” about ten days ago, which owned the bus that burned at unknown time and place, you could (!!!) have discovered (but not anymore) the route SPb – Simferopol via Yenakiyevo. With a small clarification: this bus followed through Yenakiyevo … exactly at 15:40. At three forty, but only in the afternoon.
The baboons who drafted the text for Miroshnik’s publication slightly messed up the wires in their heads. Information appeared in a report – an attack on a bus in Yenakiyevo was announced. At what time – at three forty. Check which buses are there at that time? At three forty? From St. Petersburg. This changes everything!
That’s what they literally wrote at three forty, and Miroshnik yelled about a bus from St. Petersburg.
But soon it turned out that:
1) this is an outright lie, contradicting easily verifiable facts;
2) this lie does not help suppress the impact of the attack on the oil terminal in St. Petersburg;
3) it raises questions – what kind of idiot would travel from St. Petersburg to Crimea via Yenakiyevo, Volnovakha, etc.?
Therefore, Comrade Miroshnik CORRECTED his posts and turned the bus from St. Petersburg into the “Moscow – Simferopol” route, according to Comrade Pushilin’s original version. Many websites also made corrections, but traces of the St. Petersburg story remain plentiful online.
More importantly: now, this carrier’s website doesn’t have any routes going through Yenakiieve at all. Whether from St. Petersburg or from Moscow. There used to be such routes, but now they are gone. Although the internet remembers everything. Currently, the route from Moscow goes through Khartsyzk (at 15:30) – Makeevka. So, no passenger buses with suitable characteristics were in that area at night. Consequently, Pushilin began to clarify that the bus was not coming from Moscow but from Podolsk, carrying people from “various regions.”
In summary: at night in Yenakiieve, some transport with military personnel was hit. They tried to spin it as a “bus in shorts” from Moscow. Then they decided to go big and added St. Petersburg. But due to the executors’ incompetence, they only made it worse. They had to clean up the mess…
With the attack on the bus with Belarusians in the Bryansk region, the outcome will be the same. Just a reminder: this is a bus with dozens of Belarusian children, whom Russians were ready to sacrifice for an information game.
To be continued.
Photo: social media
