Information on current Russian losses due to sanctions as of 30.10.2026.
1. Ukrainian drones attacked the Novokuybyshevsky refinery in Russia’s Samara region.
– A fire broke out in the Russian city of Novokuybyshevsk in the Samara region after an attack by Ukrainian drones on the oil refinery.
– The Novokuybyshevsky refinery belongs to the company “Rosneft” and has a processing capacity of about 8.8 million tons of oil per year. The plant produces gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel, as well as other oil products.
– The Novokuybyshevsky refinery has already been subjected to Ukrainian attacks, particularly in August 2026.
2. Ukrainian military destroyed two Russian Su-34s at an airfield near Volgograd.
– On October 29, Ukraine’s defense forces launched a missile strike on the Marinovka military airfield in Russia’s Volgograd region and destroyed two Su-34 fighter-bombers. This was reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Navy.
– According to the Navy, the strike was carried out using a “Neptune” coastal missile system on the airbase of the 11th mixed aviation regiment near the village of Oktyabrsky. The destroyed aircraft were used for strikes with guided aerial bombs on Ukrainian cities, defense force positions, and frontline areas.
– This is the second attack by Ukrainian forces on Russian military airfields in the past two weeks. On the night of October 15, a strike was carried out on the Borisoglebsk airfield in the Voronezh region. According to the Ukrainian side, four Su-34Ms were destroyed and two more damaged at that time.
– According to Ukrainian military intelligence estimates, as of October, Russia had about 140 Su-34s of various modifications. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, according to the GUR, Russian aviation has lost 43 such aircraft destroyed and another seven damaged. Russian enterprises can produce approximately 14–18 Su-34s per year.
3. Russia will continue the ban on diesel fuel exports until the end of the year but will increase quotas to fulfill agreements with the USA.
– Russia will continue the ban on diesel fuel exports until the end of 2026, while allowing certain companies to supply it under a quota system. This is intended to meet new export commitments to the USA.
– The loading of Russian refineries at the end of October increased by 25% compared to the beginning of the month. The recovery of processing accelerated after repairs and a decrease in the number of Ukrainian attacks on energy facilities.
– In November, the government plans to increase diesel fuel export quotas fourfold compared to October — up to 2 million tons, or approximately 500,000 barrels per day. In October, several refineries were already allowed to export a total of 500,000 tons of fuel.
– The current ban on diesel fuel exports expires on October 31. It is expected that at the beginning of November, the Russian government will adopt a new resolution expanding the list of plants exempted from restrictions and setting new export limits.
4. The failure of Russia’s aircraft import substitution program will be passed on to passengers through higher ticket prices.
– The Russian passenger aircraft production program continues to lag behind schedules instead of the promised mass production, with certification and delivery deadlines being postponed. Despite more than 1 trillion rubles of budget funds allocated for the “1000 aircraft by 2030” program, the promised production volumes have not yet been achieved.
– Last year, the Ministry of Industry and Trade additionally requested 259 billion rubles from the National Welfare Fund to finance the deliveries of already ordered aircraft. Certification and the launch of serial production of the MS-21 and SJ-100 are planned for 2027, and the first deliveries of the certified Il-114-300 are expected at the end of 2026.
– At the same time, the technical and economic characteristics of Russian machines are estimated to lag behind foreign competitors, and their operation may be unprofitable for airlines.
– Now, the financial problems of the aviation industry are planned to be transferred to passengers. From 2027, an additional fee of 500 rubles on domestic flights and 1000 rubles on international flights may be included in ticket prices. The funds will be directed to compensate airlines for leasing and operating 258 Russian-made aircraft — the MS-21, Tu-214, SJ-100, and Il-114-300.
– This will be another additional burden on passengers, who are already paying fuel and airport fees. Meanwhile, the new payment is being introduced even before most of the aircraft it is intended to finance begin to be serially produced and delivered to carriers.
5. The EU ban on importing Russian LNG may limit the export of “Yamal LNG”.
– The European Union’s ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas, which will take effect on January 1, 2027, could significantly limit the export capabilities of the Yamal LNG plant. This was stated by the CEO of TotalEnergies, Patrick Pouyanné.
– According to him, the plant produces 19–20 million tons of LNG per year, of which about 15 million tons are traditionally supplied to Europe. This market is key due to shorter routes and lower transportation costs. Losing access to it may complicate the sale of the entire production volume.
– Due to sanctions, TotalEnergies, which is a shareholder in the project, can currently receive only 3–4 million tons of LNG from the plant instead of the previous 5 million. An amendment adopted in July allowed redirecting part of the gas outside the EU, but such deliveries are limited by a shortage of gas carriers.
– Deliveries to Asia, particularly China and India, require significantly longer routes and increase costs. Russian authorities declare readiness to reorient exports to Asian markets, including China, India, Thailand, and the Philippines.
– However, the limited fleet of gas carriers and longer logistics complicate the quick replacement of the European market.
6. The Trump administration seeks buyers in the US for Russian diesel fuel, but companies fear legal risks.
– Representatives of US President Donald Trump’s administration are privately urging American companies to accept shipments of Russian diesel fuel heading across the Atlantic. However, potential buyers are hesitant to make deals due to the risk of violating sanctions, legal claims, and reputational damage.
– At least three ships carrying Russian diesel fuel are expected to arrive in the US about a week after the midterm elections. At the time of loading, these shipments did not have confirmed buyers. Commercial cargo owners have been trying for several weeks to find American companies, offering significant discounts, but unsuccessfully.
– New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill is considering options to prevent the acceptance of Russian fuel in the port. She called the supply agreements illegal and stated they allow Putin to receive money at the expense of American consumers and Ukraine.
– Democrats in the US Congress warned ports, banks, and energy companies of potential criminal liability for transactions involving Russian diesel fuel. Senator Richard Blumenthal also contacted the owners of two tankers, demanding that they change course and not deliver Russian fuel to American ports. Democrats emphasize that the presidential permit for imports does not override the sanctions restrictions established by Congress.
– Analysts at Rapidan Energy Group do not rule out that due to the lack of buyers, Russian diesel shipments may eventually be redirected to Brazil. Moscow and Washington continue to search for willing buyers, despite the offered discounts.
– Companies fear that even if the Trump administration currently supports such supplies, they may become the subject of investigations and lawsuits after a change in the political situation.
7. Trump’s agreements with Putin did not lower diesel prices in the US: Russian supplies are too small and problematic for the American market.
– Diesel prices in the US continued to rise following agreements between President Donald Trump and Putin on the supply of Russian fuel. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), on October 28, the average price of a gallon of diesel (3.8 liters) was $6.35 compared to $6.28 at the time of the announcement on October 9. Initially, the price briefly dropped to $6.27, but then rose again.
– Since the beginning of the war with Iran, diesel in the US has increased by almost 70%: before the conflict, a gallon cost about $3.72, and in the fall, the price exceeded $6.2. The sharp increase in fuel costs became one of the most pressing economic problems for the Trump administration.
– The scale of the American market explains why Russian supplies are unlikely to significantly change the situation. The US consumes about 4 million barrels of distillate fuel per day, including diesel and heating oil.
– A batch of Russian diesel amounting to about 300,000 barrels, loaded by a tanker in the port of Primorsk, is equivalent to only about 7% of the country’s daily consumption of this category of fuel.
– Trump stated that Russia would immediately deliver 300,000 tons of diesel to the world market, another 500,000 tons in November, and 1 million tons subsequently. However, there are doubts that Moscow will be able to fulfill these promises due to refinery issues and export restrictions.
– A tanker with the first batch of approximately 40,000 tons of Russian diesel is heading to New York and is expected to arrive on November 7. Even if the cargo is delivered, its volume will only cover about 7% of the daily diesel and distillate consumption in the US.
– Thus, the agreements with Russia do not eliminate the supply deficit in the American market, and a single batch of fuel cannot significantly impact retail prices.
8. The Trump administration is pressuring Lithuania to achieve the lifting of EU sanctions on the export of Belarusian potash.
– The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is attempting to convince Lithuania to achieve the lifting of European sanctions on Belarusian potash, in order to resume its export through Baltic ports. Washington is interested in cheaper raw materials for American fertilizer producers and aims to reduce dependency on Canada, which provides about 80% of potassium imports to the U.S.
– Trump’s special envoy for Belarus, John Coyle, has been discussing the possibility of easing sanctions with Lithuanian officials in recent weeks.
– He also raised this issue with representatives from Latvia. Washington sees the ports of Klaipeda and Riga as potential routes for exporting Belarusian potash. Before sanctions were introduced, about 90% of Belarusian exports of this raw material passed through Klaipeda. Trump previously expressed his intent to secure a large-scale deal with Minsk for purchasing Belarusian potash at prices lower than Canadian ones.
– Belarus controls about 20% of the global market for this raw material, which is used in fertilizer production. The U.S. is almost entirely dependent on potassium imports, and the rising cost of fertilizers has heightened Washington’s interest in alternative suppliers.
– Restoring exports through EU ports requires more than just Lithuania’s decision: the sanctions extend to the entire European Union and can be lifted only with the unanimous consent of all 27 countries. At the same time, Lithuania can block the extension of restrictions, which expire in February.
– However, in the Baltic and Eastern European countries, there is opposition to concessions to the regime of Alexander Lukashenko, an ally of Putin, who aided Russia in the war against Ukraine.
– European officials fear that easing sanctions would strengthen Minsk’s international standing and provide Lukashenko with additional resources to maintain power and repression. Lithuania remains one of Ukraine’s most consistent supporters in the EU.
