Information on the current losses of the Russian Federation due to sanctions as of 29.10.2026.
1. A fire broke out at a chemical plant in Russian Sterlitamak following an attack by Ukrainian drones.
– On the morning of October 29, in Russian Sterlitamak, Bashkortostan, a fire broke out at an industrial facility following an attack by Ukrainian drones. Local residents reported explosions and black smoke over the industrial area.
– According to preliminary data, the attacked site was JSC “Bashkir Soda Company” (BSC). BSC is part of the “Roshim” holding and is one of the largest chemical producers in Russia.
– The company produces calcined and food-grade soda, polyvinyl chloride, hydrochloric acid, and dichloroethane. The company also produces terephthaloyl chloride, a raw material used, in particular, for manufacturing armor materials. The enterprise is included in the register of organizations of Russia’s defense-industrial complex.
2. Russia has classified data on oil and petroleum product exports, concealing the scale of industry problems.
– The Russian government has classified additional data on oil and petroleum products, applying restrictions on the disclosure of information about the fuel and energy complex. The restrictions are based on a decree issued by Putin at the end of September. The ban on publication in the media and the internet covers data on companies’ export operations, including volumes and cost of supplies, counterparties, routes, ports, and types of transport.
– Also closed are consolidated customs data on exports, indicators of refineries’ operations, and planned sales volumes of petroleum products on the exchange. An exception is made for information that companies themselves decide to disclose.
– The classification does not eliminate the problems of the Russian oil industry but complicates assessing their scale. Less transparency also allows the authorities to hide from the public and external observers the consequences of sanctions, disruptions at refineries, and changes in trade flows.
3. Ukraine has expanded strikes on Russian industry: metallurgical plants are under attack.
– Ukrainian drones have increasingly targeted Russian metallurgical enterprises after reducing strikes on oil refineries (ORs). Russian metallurgy has become a new target, especially as the industry already suffers from sanctions, decreased domestic demand, and reduced production.
– From early 2026 to mid-October, Ukrainian forces attacked Russian ORs at least 114 times. According to reports, this led to approximately a one-third reduction in oil refining and caused a fuel shortage in the regions.
– In October, the strikes on ORs ceased following an announcement by Donald Trump of an “energy truce” between Russia and Ukraine. Among the last attacks were strikes on the Ryazan OR on October 15 and a facility in Surgut on October 16.
– On October 26, drones attacked the Yakovlevsky Mining and Processing Plant, part of the Severstal group. The facility partially lost electricity, necessitating the hoisting of miners to the surface. The plant supplies raw materials for metallurgical production.
– After a previous attack in early October, the plant was already operating in a limited mode. On the night of October 28, the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant (NLMP) was hit.
– This is the largest metallurgical plant in Russia, accounting for about 20% of the country’s steel production. According to OSINT channels, the facility was attacked with Storm Shadow missiles.
– A fire broke out on the site. Russian metallurgy is already in a prolonged crisis. After the imposition of Western sanctions, the industry lost approximately a third of its exports, and domestic demand shrank due to a construction downturn, economic slowdown, and high credit rates.
– In 2025, steel production fell to its lowest level in 15 years. From January to May 2026, production decreased by another 8.4% to 26.6 million tons. New strikes create additional risks for enterprises that are already forced to cut production due to weak demand and loss of export markets.
– Damage to energy supply or production facilities can further complicate the operation of metallurgical plants and deepen the issues facing Russian industry.
4. Salaries are delayed at Russian metallurgical plants due to the industry’s financial problems.
– Employees of the Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant of the Mechel group did not receive their salaries for September. There were also delays in sick leave and vacation payments, prompting a labor inspection check.
– At the “SMK-Kulebaki” plant in the Nizhny Novgorod region, the management acknowledged a debt to employees totaling over 82 million rubles. At the same time, salaries at the enterprise were cut by more than half.
– Payment issues arise amid worsening financial conditions for metallurgical companies. Mechel finished the first half of 2026 with a loss of 41.5 billion rubles, and Severstal’s net profit for nine months decreased by 61%.
– The companies face weak domestic demand, limited access to the European market, and increased competition in Asia, where Russian products have to be sold at significant discounts. High transportation costs further reduce export profitability.
– The situation is complicated by the reduction of steel consumption in Russia. In 2025, domestic demand, according to estimates, decreased by approximately 14%, and steel production fell to the lowest level in 15 years. High interest rates make debt servicing more expensive and attracting new financing difficult.
– Salary delays indicate that financial difficulties are extending beyond corporate reports and directly affecting employees. For cities dependent on large metallurgical enterprises, this threatens with declining household incomes, reduced local consumption, and new layoffs.
5. Russia is forced to use the Arctic route from World War II for grain exports.
– Russia is using the Arctic sea route through Murmansk for grain exports for the first time, trying to compensate for difficulties in supply through the Black Sea.
– The war against Ukraine and increased attacks on ports and ships have complicated traditional maritime trade. The Murmansk Commercial Sea Port and Demetra Holding reported the loading of the first batch of 3.4 thousand tons of grain. In total, about 28 thousand tons of wheat are planned to be shipped to Casablanca in Morocco.
– Murmansk is located near the border with Norway, almost 2,000 km north of Moscow. The port can be reached through neutral waters. During World War II, this route was used by allied convoys delivering cargo to the USSR.
– Russia is also redirecting grain shipments to the Baltic Sea. In September, 1.2 million tons of grain were exported through the Baltic ports — over 60% of all maritime exports of this product. Terminals in the region, previously specializing in fertilizers and coal, are being re-equipped to increase grain transshipment.
– At the same time, new routes create additional logistical risks. In particular, Russian officials warn of the dangers of transportation through the Baltic Sea, much of which is controlled or influenced by NATO countries.
– Turkey’s attempts to restore the Black Sea grain corridor have not yet yielded results. Russia withdrew from the relevant agreement in 2023, citing obstacles to its own export of food and fertilizers.
6. The EU will not allow the resumption of “Nord Stream” operations after the war, despite efforts from the US and Russia.
– The European Commission insists that the supply of Russian gas to the EU will be stopped regardless of the outcome of the war against Ukraine. This position contradicts the efforts of the US and Russia regarding the possible resumption of the Nord Stream pipeline.
– The European Commission reminded that dependence on Russian fossil fuels has resulted in significant costs for Europe, and Moscow has used energy supplies as a tool of political pressure. Previously, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stated that sanctions against the Russian energy sector would remain until Russia ends the war.
– At the same time, the refusal of Russian gas is based not only on sanctions. EU legislation provides for the gradual cessation of all Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, regardless of geopolitical circumstances.
– Short-term contracts for the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have already been terminated. Long-term LNG contracts are due to end by January 2027, and pipeline gas supplies, including those related to the Nord Stream, by September 2027.
– The European Commission also emphasized that Russia was the first to stop the supply of gas to Europe, using energy dependence as a means of pressure.
7. Chinese refineries are replacing Russian oil with supplies from Africa and Brazil.
– Chinese refineries are increasing purchases of oil from West Africa and Brazil, as lower shipping costs have made these supplies more profitable. Meanwhile, competition for Russian oil is intensifying, and disruptions in the supply of Iranian crude force Chinese refiners to seek alternatives.
– According to traders, Chinese companies purchased oil from West Africa and Brazil at a premium of $15–20 per barrel over ICE Brent for December delivery. At least one independent Chinese refinery, known as a “teapot,” has already received a Brazilian oil shipment. Among the acquired grades are Ceiba from Equatorial Guinea, Saturno from Angola, and Mero from Brazil. Iraqi oil Basrah, offered at a $15 premium per barrel to Brent, is also an alternative.
– Reduced transportation costs lower expenses for the procurement of raw materials from distant regions. According to Vortexa, the transportation cost of a barrel of oil from Texas to South Korea decreased from approximately $42.60 to $31 in less than three weeks. Freight from West Africa to China dropped from almost $33 to $24.50 per barrel.
– Meanwhile, Russian ESPO crude from the Far East has become more expensive due to increased demand from major oil companies in India and China. At the end of September, it was offered at a $30 premium per barrel to Brent, whereas at the end of August, the premium was just $5. According to traders, it later decreased to about $20 per barrel.
– For Chinese independent refineries, which operate with low profitability and traditionally rely on cheaper Russian and Iranian oil, changes in prices and freight costs open up additional procurement opportunities.
– The search for alternatives has intensified after the US naval blockade of Iranian ports limited access to cheap Iranian crude.
– As a result, Russian suppliers risk losing part of their price advantage in the Chinese market: if alternative grades become more accessible taking delivery costs into account, buyers have more opportunities to choose suppliers.
8. Hungary considers American nuclear technologies as an alternative to cooperation with Russia.
– Hungary has released an intergovernmental agreement with the USA on cooperation in nuclear energy, which could pave the way to reducing dependency on Russian technologies.
– The document stipulates that Budapest will encourage the use of American nuclear technologies and involvement of US companies in new projects, including the construction of small modular reactors. The agreement does not obligate Hungary to conclude specific contracts with American companies but sets a framework for future cooperation.
– The document may also become a basis for establishing relations between the new Prime Minister Peter Magyar and US President Donald Trump, who supported the former head of the Hungarian government, Viktor Orban.
– The publication of the agreement took place on the eve of a planned meeting between representatives of Hungary and the USA in Washington. The document is to be considered by the Hungarian parliament, where Magyar’s party holds a majority.
– Meanwhile, Budapest continues to seek an extension of the American sanctions exemption, allowing the purchase of Russian oil. Hungary is also reviewing its energy policy: considering extending the operational life of the country’s four nuclear reactors and determining the future of its expansion project involving Russia, which has been delayed for several years.
Photo: Greenpeace PL
