The European publication Politico emphasizes that the departure of Viktor Orbán from the position of Hungary’s prime minister has deprived several EU governments of a convenient excuse to stall anti-Russian sanctions, and now they are forced to openly defend their own economic interests. The 21st package of restrictive measures clearly shows that easy decisions in Brussels are no longer available: each new regulation affects a specific business – Greek shipowners, an Austrian bank, the fish processing industry, or visa policy. European parliamentarians warn that delays weaken pressure on Moscow at a time when the war is beginning to significantly impact the Russian economy. Despite concessions and the exclusion of certain points, the package still provides for the disconnection of dozens of Russian banks from SWIFT and the largest expansion since 2023 of the list of individuals banned from entering the EU.
Orbán no longer shields others
On Wednesday, EU country ambassadors are to once again attempt to agree on the first sanctions package against Russia since Orbán’s departure from the Hungarian government – member states have already diluted several key provisions to protect their own interests in energy, fish processing, banking, and shipping, writes the European publication Politico.
For years, Orbán – an experienced Hungarian populist, who maintained close ties with the Kremlin and repeatedly threatened to block sanctions – effectively served as a cover for other capitals that also wanted to avoid tougher measures. Now, with Péter Magyar heading Hungary, and Budapest no longer standing in the way, these governments have had to openly express their objections.
“It was unpleasantly surprising how many member states were stalling the implementation of measures,” said Ville Niinistö, a Finnish Member of the European Parliament and chairman of the parliament’s delegation for relations with Russia. According to him, it is crucial to continue strengthening EU sanctions against Russia now, when the war is starting to significantly affect the economy and public sentiment in the aggressor country.
As Politico notes, it is expected that the parties will eventually reach a consensus, although ambassadors will likely have to make further concessions for a final agreement. Seven interlocutors involved in preparing the package told the publication that several measures had already been weakened or completely removed.
The end of easy decisions
The package, presented in June by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, is set to become the 21st since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Diplomats note that after twenty previous rounds, the EU has exhausted obvious targets, and new sanctions increasingly affect significant national interests. Sanctions require unanimous support from all 27 member countries.
“There are no easy decisions left – twenty packages are behind us. Now, more often, you hit the interests of individual member states, so you have to find a balance,” explained an EU diplomat involved in the negotiations. Like other interlocutors of Politico, he spoke on condition of anonymity due to the confidentiality of the negotiations.
Greek Resistance and Frozen Price Ceiling
Politico claims that Greece still does not support the 21st package due to the proposed ban on EU companies transporting Russian liquefied natural gas to third countries. Greece has the world’s largest merchant fleet and fears repercussions for the Greek company operating icebreaker tankers for exporting Russian LNG.
The Greek ambassador warned that such a measure might prompt shipowners to re-register tankers under flags of other countries and move them to jurisdictions where rule compliance is much harder to control. Two other diplomats familiar with the negotiations shared this information with the publication.
“We are trying to find a solution, but Greece’s objection indicates: we are already very close to the core economic interests of individual states,” remarked a fourth diplomat.
Along with Malta and Cyprus, Greece was also slow to support the six-month extension of the frozen price cap on Russian oil at $44.10 per barrel. EU countries have bought time, leaving the price cap unchanged until Thursday. Now, it’s likely to be frozen for another six months if the Greek veto on transporting Russian LNG can be lifted, writes Politico.
Raiffeisen Bank’s Murky Waters
The negotiations were also complicated by Austria’s intervention in defense of Raiffeisen Bank, the country’s second-largest bank. The institution has long been seeking compensation for what it calls the illegal expropriation of its Russian assets valued at €2.44 billion. Vienna proposes to pay for it using frozen funds belonging to one of Moscow’s leading oligarchs.
Vienna had already raised this issue during negotiations on several previous sanction packages. But, according to negotiation participants, it caused delays at the final stage for the first time. According to Politico, the European Commission sent Austria a proposal, promising to consider this issue in one of the next sanction packages.
Fish, Patriarch, and Removed Items
As Politico notes, other governments managed to remove the phased ban on importing Russian fish from the package, despite outrage that Moscow still earns over half a billion dollars a year from selling fish to the EU. The initial version of the package included a ban on importing cod, haddock, and pollock, but it was abandoned after several countries expressed concerns about potential price increases for consumers and the impact on the EU fish processing industry.
Previous drafts of the document also included sanctions against the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church Kirill and entry restrictions to the EU for former members of Russia’s armed forces.
Bulgaria opposed including Kirill in the sanction list. Italy also officially raised concerns: according to a fifth EU diplomat, the Vatican did not want sanctions imposed on the head of another church.
“This is solidarity with the pope,” explained the diplomat. As a result, Kirill was removed from the final version of the package.
France and Italy—countries issuing a significant number of visas to Russians—also opposed restrictions for former Russian servicemen. They insisted that the mechanism for identifying individuals to whom the ban should apply was not yet ready for implementation, so these provisions were significantly softened.
What Still Remains in the Package
Despite all the removals, Politico notes, the package in its current form will still disconnect several dozen Russian banks from the SWIFT financial messaging system. Over 250 individuals will also be subject to an EU entry ban, marking the largest expansion of such a list since 2023.
“Considering the freezing of the oil price cap and visa restrictions for military personnel, the package looks quite ambitious,” says a third diplomat.
However, Politico emphasizes, the concessions made have dispelled hopes that Orban’s departure would significantly ease the economic pressure on Moscow.
“It was hard with Orban,” admitted another EU diplomat, “but he never blocked the packages completely.”
