Glory to Ukraine!
Glory to the defenders of Ukraine and the entire modern civilization!
- Policy based on impulses leads to chaos
- MAGA dominance in the Republican Party
▶ Speaking with journalists in the White House press center on Tuesday afternoon, Secretary of State Rubio announced that the military operation “Epic Fury,” launched against Iran on February 28, is over, and that the United States does not intend to resume it.
Rubio also stated that the U.S. is currently conducting an operation initiated on Monday called “Project Freedom” to escort civilian merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, just a few hours later, at 6:52 p.m. Eastern Time, the 47th President posted the following tweet on his social network:
“Considering the requests from Pakistan and other countries, our colossal military successes achieved during the campaign against the State of Iran, and the fact that significant progress has been made towards reaching a Comprehensive and Final Agreement with the Representatives of Iran, we have come to a mutual agreement: although the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, the implementation of ‘Project Freedom’ (Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be temporarily suspended – in order to see if it is possible to finally formalize and sign this agreement. President DONALD J. TRUMP”.
Much can be said about the loss of trust in the United States from all their traditional allies of the liberal-democratic civilization. Much can be said about how constant and demonstrative disregard for allies will have consequences – relations with them will be very difficult to restore to where they were before Trump’s rise to power. Various mistakes made by different American administrations in their foreign policy at different times can be discussed.
But never in American history has there been a president and administration that changed their decisions in security and foreign policy to the opposite within a few hours. Never before has there been such a case where, on a Saturday afternoon, the president announced that at the request of many countries, on Monday, the US would start Operation “Project Freedom” to ensure civilian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; on Tuesday morning the Pentagon chief talked in a press conference about how successfully this operation was going; on Tuesday afternoon the Secretary of State said that military actions were over and now the US was conducting an important humanitarian mission, carrying out this important operation; and already on Tuesday evening, three days after the announcement of the start of this operation at the request of various countries, the president declared that at the request of “Pakistan and other countries” this operation was being suspended.
This is called chaos in action. Chaos, as it is. If authors of history or political science textbooks need examples of what complete chaos in politics is, this is the newest and best example.
Chaos always comes when there is no strategy. When decisions are made impulsively, under the influence of momentary emotions, without assessing the situation, without evaluating the consequences of various options. When decisions made today are diametrically opposed to those made yesterday. And decisions that will be made tomorrow, being “perpendicular” to today’s decisions, are in turn diametrically opposed to yesterday’s decisions. And so in a circle. In a circle of unpredictability and lack of any strategy.
It has already been necessary to talk about the science called operations research. I really loved this course as a student. One of the key points of this science is the necessity to set correct and achievable goals and find optimal ways to achieve these goals, that is, to find the optimal strategy for achieving them. Because if the goals are unattainable, then there are simply no ways to achieve them. And if a good, correct goal is set, but the strategy for achieving it is chosen incorrectly, then it is impossible to achieve even a properly set goal. These are very closely interrelated aspects of the same process. One cannot exist without the other. A properly set, achievable goal and the right strategy for achieving it are the keys to success in any kind of global and even not very global activity at any level.
When an unattainable goal is set or there is no strategy for achieving the set goal, when impulsive, constantly changing decisions are made at the managerial level that lower levels cannot even begin to implement, this is chaos in action.
▶ On international contacts.
● State Department Press Service statement:
“Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke today with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at his request. They discussed US-Russia relations, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and Iran.”
Lavrov’s press service was more verbose, announcing that the participants “exchanged views on the current situation in international affairs and Russian-American relations, and also discussed the schedule of bilateral contacts.” The conversation was characterized by the Russian side as “constructive and businesslike.”
● Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, who recently met with Putin in St. Petersburg, headed to Beijing.
The 47th US president is also planning an official visit there next week. Unless he postpones the visit at the last minute, as was done in April.
What will Trump take to the meeting with Xi? He would like to go declaring himself the victor in the war with Iran, the liberator of the Strait of Hormuz, and the man who solved the Iranian nuclear problem. So far, it seems unlikely that Trump will be able to travel to Beijing with such credentials.
▶ On Tuesday, party primaries take place in several US states. The primaries began more than two months ago and are held in some state or states every Tuesday.
This time, it is interesting to follow the primaries in local elections where Republicans are selecting their candidates for the state senate in Indiana.
And this is why these primaries are of interest. About half a year ago, a group of Republicans in the Indiana state legislature’s senate refused to support Trump’s demand to redraw election district boundaries for the US House of Representatives in favor of the Republican party. Trump then threatened to put forward loyal MAGA supporters against seven incumbent Republican state senators who refused to redraw the district boundaries. The 47th president fulfilled his threat. After counting 95% of the primary votes, it is clear that five of the seven incumbent state Republican senators who dared to oppose Trump’s demand for manipulative redistricting are losing their primaries to loyal MAGA supporters and are being ousted from Republican politics. In one of the senate districts, the primary outcome is unclear — the gap between candidates is only a few votes. In another district, the candidate put forward by Trump is losing the primaries.
This voting shows that the Republican Party, as it has been, remains under the control of the 47th president. Any speech by any Republican elected official at any level—federal or local—against any of Trump’s wishes means that such a politician faces a MAGA candidate supported by Trump in the next primaries. And this MAGA candidate usually wins in the primaries, as most of the current ordinary Republicans voting in these primaries are supporters of the far-right MAGA ideology. It’s a fact. Therefore, searching for “classic” conservatives or right-centrists among modern Republicans is unlikely to yield results. Those similar people still remaining in the party, if they are active in politics, generally fall out of this active politics as soon as they vote against Trump. Their exit is facilitated by ordinary Republican voters voting in the primaries. Rare exceptions to this rule, such as Senator Lisa Murkowski from Alaska, only emphasize the rule. Lisa Murkowski is one of the few Republican politicians whose personal popularity in her state ensures her independence from Trump. He tried during his first presidency to field his candidate against her in the primaries. But he failed. However, as you see, in general, this strategy works for him. And therefore, expecting any decisions from Republicans in Congress that he disapproves of is absolutely impossible.
As if wanting to prove that this analysis highlights today’s reality, Republicans in Congress gathered to allocate $1 billion to the 47th president for the construction of his “ballroom” at the White House, doing so within the framework of the current budget review procedure. By applying this procedure, they do not need Democrat votes in the Senate, as such a procedure requires only a simple majority of votes in the Senate for passage.
There are 991 days left until the end of the story called “Fear: Trump in the White House” © (a book by Bob Woodward, published in 2018).
Thank you to everyone who read this. Take care of yourself and your loved ones. Take care of each other, help each other. Health to all.
Ultimately, what happens in the world depends on us. Whether we fight against evil, do good, remain just observers, wait passively and believe that someone, somewhere, will decide for us, or fight against evil and do everything possible to ensure Good prevails.
We must not allow evil to prevail. The victory of evil would mean the end of the world as we know it. We cannot let this happen. Especially now.
Ukrainian Friends, I embrace and love you all. Please take care of each other, I urge you.
Ukraine exists and will always exist.
And evil will be defeated and punished. This is certain.
