Information on the current losses of the Russian Federation due to sanctions as of 07/10/2026.
1. On the night of July 10, Ukrainian drones continued a series of strikes on Russia’s military and fuel infrastructure.
– Military-industrial complex enterprises, an oil refinery, and a fuel terminal that support the aggressor country’s military logistics were targeted.
– In the city of Azov, Rostov region, the “Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant,” a defense enterprise specializing in optical-electronic, radar, and high-precision systems for the Russian army, was hit.
– Drones also attacked the Ilsky oil refinery in the Krasnodar region, one of the key refineries in southern Russia, supplying fuel for the domestic market and military logistics.
– Meanwhile, in Taganrog, a fire broke out at the “KurganNefteProdukt” (“YugTransitService”) port terminal, used for transshipping oil and oil products to sea vessels.
2. The Saratov refinery of “Rosneft” completely halted operations after an attack by Ukrainian drones.
– The enterprise stopped oil processing on July 8 due to damage and subsequent fires caused by the UAV strike. The only primary oil processing unit AVT-6, with a nominal capacity of 20 thousand tons per day, was shut down, and its recovery may take 1–2 weeks.
– The Saratov refinery, commissioned back in 1934, has a design capacity of 7 million tons of oil per year. Since Wednesday, the enterprise also ceased sales of oil products on the St. Petersburg Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange, further exacerbating the fuel shortage in the domestic market.
– In 2024, the plant processed 5.8 million tons of oil, producing 1.2 million tons of automotive gasoline, 1.9 million tons of diesel fuel, and 1 million tons of fuel oil.
3. “Gazprom” shares continue their rapid decline and have fallen to 94.88 rubles, breaking the level last recorded during the global financial crisis of 2008.
– The papers of the gas monopolist became one of the main factors in the fall of the Russian stock market, as investors are massively shedding the company’s shares amid worsening financial prospects.
– The pressure on quotations intensified due to the company’s refusal to pay dividends, the reduction of gas exports to Europe, insufficient compensation for losses by Asian contracts, and the EU’s plans to abandon Russian pipeline gas.
– The decline in shares of Russia’s largest gas company increases risks for the federal budget, which is dependent on revenue from the energy sector.
– With the company’s profits shrinking, the authorities will need to find additional sources to fill the budget, while “Gazprom” itself will have to cut costs and review investment programs.
4. Russia received a brief budget reprieve, but the deficit remains critical.
– The Russian Ministry of Finance reported the first reduction in the federal budget deficit since the beginning of 2026. By the end of January–June, the deficit amounted to 5.731 trillion rubles, compared to 6.01 trillion rubles at the end of May. In June, the budget was in surplus by about 279 billion rubles— for the first time since October last year.
– However, this does not mean financial stabilization. Oil and gas revenues fell by 23% in the first half of the year, to 3.661 trillion rubles, while non-oil and gas revenues increased by 16%, to 14.961 trillion rubles. Total budget revenues increased by only 6%, to 18.622 trillion rubles, while expenditures jumped by 16%, to 24.353 trillion rubles.
– Especially sharply, spending on government procurement rose— by 47%, to 7.553 trillion rubles. By the end of June, three-quarters of the annual limit had already been spent on this item, indicating accelerated use of budget resources amid military needs.
– The June surplus was made possible by a temporary rise in oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East. According to Bloomberg, the surplus was 279 billion rubles ($3.7 billion), and oil and gas revenues in June increased by 38% year-on-year.
– However, after the easing of tensions between Iran and the United States, the price of Russian oil, which is used for calculating taxes, fell from $86.52 in May and $94.87 in April to $63.52 per barrel in June. This means that already in July, Russia’s budget revenues may weaken sharply.
– The budget deficit at the beginning of July stands at 2.5% of GDP, which significantly exceeds the annual plan of 1.6% of GDP. The accumulated deficit over the past 12 months amounts to about 8 trillion rubles.
– The June surplus looks more like a temporary effect from a short-term oil price spike rather than a sign of a recovery in Russian state finances.
5. The diesel fuel deficit in Russia has begun to threaten not only the transport system but also the agricultural sector.
– Due to fuel shortages, sales restrictions, and rapid price increases, the 2026 harvest campaign is under threat of disruption. The most acute situation is in key grain regions — Rostov Oblast, Krasnodar, and Stavropol Krai, which provide about one-fifth of the country’s grain harvest.
– According to market participants, farmers face an acute diesel shortage for combines and other agricultural machinery. In Kuban, fuel has to be sought along the M4 federal highway, where drivers are forced to spend the night at gas stations waiting for fuel trucks. There are sales limits — only 100–200 liters per person, while one combine consumes up to 300 liters of diesel per shift. Because of this, many farms are hesitant to begin harvesting without guaranteed fuel supply directly to the fields.
– The situation is especially critical in occupied Crimea, where agricultural machinery is virtually idle due to diesel fuel shortages. In Rostov Oblast, farmers are already warning of the risk of losing up to 15% of the grain yield.
– An additional risk is the limited harvest period. After the grain ripens, farmers have only 7–10 days to harvest it. After this, the crop begins to fall, and rain can completely block the entry of machinery into the fields.
– As of July 1, only 1.3–1.5 million hectares of grain have been harvested in Russia — nearly three times less than the same period last year, when this index was 4.2–4.6 million hectares.
6. The International Energy Agency (IEA) worsened the forecast for oil production in Russia after a series of Ukrainian strikes on refining infrastructure.
– According to updated estimates, production will be 8.9 million barrels per day in 2026 and 8.8 million barrels in 2027, compared to an expected 9.2 million barrels per day in 2025. The 2026 forecast is reduced by 85,000 barrels per day, and the 2027 forecast by 150,000 barrels per day.
– In June, oil production in Russia increased by 120,000 barrels per day compared to May — to 8.86 million barrels per day, but it is still 900,000 barrels below the quota set within the OPEC+ agreement.
– Due to damage to refineries, Russia is forced to increase the export of crude oil that cannot be processed domestically. According to industry sources, shipments from western ports reached a record level in June and are expected to remain high in July.
– This indicates growing problems in Russian oil refining, which is increasingly losing the ability to convert oil into higher-added-value products due to systematic strikes on critical infrastructure.
7. Turkey is trying to negotiate with Russia to decommission the S-400 missile system in order to re-enter the F-35 program.
– Ankara is negotiating with Russia regarding the transfer of the S-400 air defense missile systems it purchased to a third country. This move aims to remove the main obstacle for Turkey to rejoin the American F-35 fighter program. The Turkish side approached Moscow with this request in recent weeks.
– Previously, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also proposed returning the S-400s to Russia, but this idea did not gain support. Negotiations have intensified following the NATO summit, where U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that he might reconsider the restrictions on the sale of F-35 fighters to Turkey.
– Meanwhile, American senators assert that even transferring the S-400s to a third country may not alleviate Washington’s security concerns. Turkey had earlier proposed keeping the systems on its territory while allowing the U.S. to control their operation. This option also did not find support.
– If Moscow agrees to the transfer, the S-400 systems will be relocated outside Turkey. The possible recipient country has not been disclosed by the parties involved.
8. EU countries have softened a number of proposed restrictions in the 21st sanctions package against Russia.
– Parts of the measures have been removed or softened in the final version of the document, particularly in the energy sector. Specifically, the EU has abandoned the idea of a complete ban on issuing visas to Russians who participated in the war against Ukraine.
– Instead, the restrictions are planned to be applied only to short-term Schengen visas and only to military personnel directly involved in the hostilities.
– Additionally, energy sanctions have been eased. Greece has secured the ability to supply Russian LNG to non-EU countries. Meanwhile, the proposal to sell tankers to Russia for LNG transportation remains unchanged — such a ban is still in place.
– A separate topic of negotiations is the new price cap on Russian oil. It is proposed to reduce the review period for the price ceiling mechanism from six to three months.
– Bulgaria opposes setting the cap at $44 per barrel and threatens to block the package if its demands are not considered. Additionally, Patriarch Kirill may be excluded from the draft sanctions list, as both Bulgaria and Italy had previously objected to his inclusion.
– Despite the softening of certain provisions, negotiations on the 21st sanctions package continue. Member states aim to reach a compromise by July 15, though several key issues, particularly oil restrictions, remain contentious.
