Glory to Ukraine!
Glory to the defenders of Ukraine and the entire modern civilization!
Today in the issue:
- Agreement with Iran: Virtuality and Reality
- Donald Trump at 80: No-holds-barred fights, a heart 14 years younger than its owner, removal of Trump’s name from the Kennedy Center, G7 summit, nostalgia for the meeting with Kim
▶ On Saturday at 12:45 Eastern Time, the 47th President published a tweet, from which news agencies around the world immediately tried to extract a rational grain, and when they decided they had extracted it, reported that on Sunday the US and Iran would sign a document to end the war.
The tweet is worth quoting. The stream of consciousness of the head of state, the virtual world he built in that consciousness, is significant. When this state is the United States of America, it matters to all.
Here is the tweet:
“Barack Hussein Obama’s deal with Iran (JCPOA) was an easy, beautiful and smooth path to nuclear weapons – weapons that Iran would have acquired six years ago and used long before today. My agreement with Iran is the complete opposite: a WALL BLOCKING THE PATH TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS! In fact, they no longer want nuclear weapons, and they won’t have them – not by buying, not by developing, nor by any other means of obtaining them. The signing of the deal is scheduled for tomorrow, and immediately afterwards the Strait of Hormuz will be OPEN TO ALL. Our relations with Iran are entirely different and much better than those of previous administrations. Unlike the payments to Iran by Obama, amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars – including $1.7 billion in ‘live’ money – there will be no cash flow. At the right moment, when the situation stabilizes, we – thanks to our magnificent B-2 bombers and their brilliant pilots – will get to the nuclear dust, deeply buried under powerful granite layers, and reprocess it (lowering the enrichment level) and destroy it: either in Iran itself or in the United States. We look forward to cooperation with Iran and the entire Middle East in the long-term. We hope this whole process will go quickly, easily, and smoothly. If not, we have an extreme measure – an alternative that we hope never to apply again! Thank you for your attention to this issue!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
Now let’s analyze the real facts.
1) Let’s open the JCPOA agreement, concluded in 2015 between Iran, the USA, the UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia, and terminated by Trump in May 2018. The agreement, by the way, is available on the State Department’s website. The 47th president clearly never read it. Here’s what the agreement states in point 3:
“iii. Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will it ever seek to acquire, develop, or possess nuclear weapons.”
Let us remind once again: this agreement was concluded in 2015. In February 2018, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats (appointed by Trump) clearly stated in the open section of the national security threats report presented to Congress, that according to the American intelligence assessment, Iran was complying with the agreement. Nevertheless, Trump terminated the agreement. As a result, Iran, which at that time had no stock of enriched uranium or infrastructure for its enrichment, now possesses a stock of 11 tons of enriched uranium, including 500 kg enriched up to 60%, which is sufficient to create nuclear weapons. This is the result of Trump’s decision to terminate the JCPOA agreement.
2) The Obama administration did not transfer any money to Iran. According to the agreement, when Iran fulfilled all its conditions, it was able to access $1.7 billion of its money frozen in the USA. These funds were transferred to a special account in a third country, controlled by the USA. These funds could only be used for purchasing food, medicine, and other purely humanitarian purchases. Each operation with this money was controlled by the USA.
3) While journalists accredited to the White House concluded that the agreement with Iran would be signed on Sunday, Iran did not confirm this as of Saturday evening, stating that disaccorded provisions remain.
4) In any case, it’s not about signing an agreement but about the virtual signing of a memorandum of understanding. The main provisions of this memorandum, if signed, include Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz, the USA lifting the blockade from Iranian ports, and conducting negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program within the next 60 days.
It is sincerely hoped that such a memorandum will be signed.
Because it is clear that the issue of the Iranian nuclear and missile programs cannot be solved through military means.
Because the blockade of the Hormuz Strait holds the entire world hostage—due to high oil prices, energy prices and the prices of virtually all products and goods are rising everywhere, especially in developed countries. This spiraling inflation threatens a serious economic crisis for the entire global economy. Moreover, the high oil price allows Russia to receive substantial additional funds to continue its war against Ukraine.
However, it’s impossible to ignore two important factors.
First, lifting the blockade of the Hormuz Strait does not mean the possibility of immediate resumption of free navigation through it. This is because the strait is mined, and according to estimates, for example, by former NATO forces commander retired General Wesley Clark, clearing it will take several months. Therefore, only a limited number of ships will be able to pass through the strait, with mine sweepers having to clear the passage for each. Additionally, Iranian shelling has damaged the port infrastructure of all the Persian Gulf countries. Restoring this infrastructure will also take time. Due to these two reasons, it is unlikely to expect a quick resumption of oil, liquefied gas, and fertilizer supplies through the Hormuz Strait in the previous volumes.
Second, it is possible, of course, to announce that an agreement with Iran on its nuclear program will be reached within 60 days. Does this mean that it can truly be achieved within the allotted two months? The memorandum, which may be signed and is much narrower and simpler than any agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, has been under discussion for more than two months—since April 8. And negotiations on the JCPOA agreement with Iran were conducted for three years. American participants in these negotiations now note that conducting them was challenging—the Iranian diplomats involved in the talks were very reluctant to make any concessions, demanding concessions in return. Therefore, reaching an acceptable compromise with them is painstaking and difficult work.
However, it can be repeated again. The war with Iran became a serious strategic failure for the USA. Obviously, the best outcome could be a return, after some time, to an agreement similar to the JCPOA, which was in effect until Trump withdrew from it, and which could have been extended (it was initially concluded for a period of 10 years). Clearly, the goal of the war was regime change in Iran. This goal was not achieved, and the ad hoc plan “B” is essentially a retreat by the USA to the pre-JCPOA agreement position in order to conclude a similar agreement again. The only difference is that Iran, negotiating with the USA, will now rely on two significant factors – 1) Trump will strive at all costs to reach an agreement before the Congress elections in November and 2) Iran knows that due to the elections, the resumption of a major war by the USA is very unlikely, and also knows that it has a formidable and already tested weapon – the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. And one more important nuance. The USA’s retreat to the pre-JCPOA positions for Iran clearly does not signify the power of the USA. Quite the opposite.
▶ On Sunday, the 47th president turns 80. He hosted a show at the White House in his honor, which he had long prepared for – no-holds-barred fights. At one time, the late Senator John McCain proposed a bill to ban such tournaments. The 47th decided that such a tournament was the best way to celebrate his own anniversary.
The White House released a statement that the president underwent an annual medical examination. A total of 22 (!!!) doctors participated in his assessment (Lawrence O’Donnell, host of a news analysis show on MS NOW, rhetorically asked on air: how many of them were psychiatrists). The most remarkable was the cardiologist’s report that an analysis of the president’s electrocardiogram using artificial intelligence showed that his heart is 14 years younger than he is.
This is also part of the virtual world in which the 47th president lives. A world he is pulling the country and the real world into. And they resist, unwilling to follow him.
At 3 a.m. on Saturday, the letters “Donald J. Trump and” were removed from the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington.
Two weeks ago, a court ruled that the naming of the Kennedy Center after Trump by the board of trustees appointed by him was illegal and required the removal of Trump’s name from all related documents and the facade of the building by the end of June 12. At the last moment, the administration tried to appeal – all were rejected. On Friday evening, the administration requested a delay in removing the name under the pretext of a supposed thunderstorm and strong winds in Washington. The court denied it. There was no storm or wind. Trump’s name is no longer on the center’s building.
On Sunday evening, on his birthday, the president will head to France for the G7 summit. He is likely already very unhappy about this. He will have to spend time again with the leaders of the six most developed democratic countries, whom he despises. He will have to discuss matters with them, listen to their opinions, which do not interest him. In 2020, Trump disrupted the G7 summit, which did not take place even in an online format because Trump demanded that Putin participate. Last year, Trump spent only a few hours at the G7 summit before leaving. He did the same in 2018, stating he needed to prepare for a meeting with Kim Jong Un.
He would probably prefer to have a summit with Putin, Xi, and Kim now. Trump expressed his nostalgic memories of meeting Kim in a tweet published on Saturday at 1:53 p.m. He shared a photo with Kim. A precious memory. He himself said that a friendship had blossomed between them.
There are 952 days left until the end of the story called “Fear: Trump in the White House” © (the title of Bob Woodward’s book published in 2018).
Thank you to everyone who read. Take care of yourself and your loved ones. Take care of each other, help each other. Health to all.
Ultimately, what happens in the world depends on us. Whether we fight evil, do Good, remain mere observers, wait passively, and believe that someone somewhere will decide for us, or fight evil and do everything possible for Good to prevail.
We must not allow evil to win. The victory of evil would mean the end of the world we live in. We cannot allow this. Especially now.
Ukrainian Friends, I hug and love you all. Please take care of each other.
Ukraine is and always will be.
And evil will be defeated and punished. And this is inevitable.
