Obviously, all these statements about the “necessity for Western diplomats to leave Kyiv” because Kyiv is supposedly going to be demolished, along with spreading panic rumors on social networks, clash with the hard reality of how capable Moscow is of striking at all? Obviously, Moscow is applying everything it can. The fact they are pulling additional ballistic missiles from storage and firing them at us means they either won’t have any more (China rejoices), or that they’ll have less on the front line.
So why this frenzy? There are reasons, and they are quite serious.
Ladies and gentlemen, I know how our society feels about any news of successes on the front lines right now. Yes, our successes there are local. Yes, all successes come at a very high cost. And yes, we are still far from the end of the war. But.
There are two successes with important strategic significance that disrupt all of Moscow’s prospects.
The first reason is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have slightly pushed the enemy back from Zaporizhzhia. Yes, it is a very small distance, literally up to 1.5 km.
But for understanding. First, Zaporizhzhia is a regional center, and Moscow was recently approaching its outskirts, drones over the southern areas of the city are no longer news. Zaporizhzhia is also a major transport hub. Moscow does not hide the desire to seize Zaporizhzhia, as it would indeed be a great achievement for them.
Secondly, in the opposite direction, that is towards Zaporizhzhia, Moscow took a little over a year to cover a distance of 5 km. It turns out like this. A full-scale assault on Zaporizhzhia is hindered by Ukrainian positions near Orikhiv, and there is the worst nightmare of the occupier’s army — Mala Tokmachka. The occupiers cannot capture Orikhiv from the north either; in March, the Armed Forces of Ukraine conducted a counterattack there. And from the south of Zaporizhzhia, the occupiers are being pushed back. The front from Stepnohirsk moved south to the settlement of Plavni.
The second reason: Ukraine has effectively cut Moscow’s land corridor to Crimea. Ukrainian drones have effectively blocked traffic on the Rostov – Dzhankoy highway. The internet is already filled with videos of burned trucks on that route.
It got to the point that the Russian gauleiter Saldo restricted the movement of freight transport on the highway, provoking harsh criticism from Russian war correspondents. Because the highway can now only be used by military vehicles and fuel trucks (which will, of course, simplify the work of Ukrainian drone operators), Russian propaganda accused collaborator Saldo of working… for the SBU. I am sure it’s not for the first time; traitors are despised everywhere.
Moscow is already roaring that due to Ukrainian drone strikes on the highways in the Azov region, the supply to the troops in Crimea, the supply of Crimea itself, and even the so-called “holiday season” are under threat.
What does all this mean? Exactly that Moscow has not yet lost. But it has already hit the Ukrainian wall of drones and simply cannot advance further. The occupiers again and again strike against the Ukrainian defense, but the result is only new losses.
Yes, I know we have territorial losses in other sectors of the front. But some analysts are already saying that in May, Ukraine liberated more territories than it lost. The last similar occurrence was in March after the counterattack in the Pokrovske-Oleksandrivka area.
Foreign diplomats are already laughing at the Russian “advance”. “To say the Russian army is moving at a snail’s pace is an insult to snails. If a snail had started moving from Avdiivka in February 2022 and crawled west, it would have reached the Czech Republic by now. And Russia is still bogged down in Donbas,” declared the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Latvia.
Yes, tough times lie ahead. Yes, it seems we now have to endure an aerial battle for Kyiv. Yes, in the fall Moscow is likely to carry out mobilization and throw new masses of infantry at our positions. But for now, they are stalled and frantically searching for a way out. That is why they are furious.
And we will endure. I see it.
Photo: 3rd Corps NGU “Azov”
