Information on current losses of the Russian Federation due to sanctions as of 07/05/2026.
1. A massive blackout was recorded in temporarily occupied Crimea after a nighttime attack.
– On the night of July 5, drones attacked a number of energy facilities in temporarily occupied Crimea. Following the attack, there was a massive power outage across most of the peninsula. According to monitoring resources, almost the entire territory of occupied Crimea was left without power, with nighttime lighting remaining in only four cities.
– According to available data, the “Bakhchisarai” substation with a voltage of 220 kV in Bakhchisarai and the “Zimine” substation with a voltage of 35/10 kV were hit.
– Preliminary assessments indicate that as of today, 25 power substations in Crimea have been affected, significantly complicating the operation of the energy system of the occupied peninsula and the restoration of power supply.
2. Russia is trying to replenish the National Welfare Fund, but falling oil prices may quickly force it to spend reserves again.
– The Russian Ministry of Finance announced that from July 7 to August 6, it will allocate 123.2 billion rubles to purchase currency and gold for the National Welfare Fund (NWF). This is the third consecutive month that the Russian authorities have tried to partially restore reserves depleted over the years of war.
– However, this replenishment is temporary. It was only made possible by a short-term spike in global oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.
– After the ceasefire between the US and Iran, the situation changed dramatically: the price of Russian Urals oil has already fallen below 45 dollars per barrel, while the budget is set at 59 dollars. As early as August, the Ministry of Finance will likely have to stop replenishing the NWF and again sell currency and gold from the reserves to compensate for the decline in oil and gas budget revenues.
– During the full-scale war, the liquid part of the NWF has already shrunk by almost three times — to 3.6 trillion rubles (46.4 billion dollars). Since the beginning of the war, Russia has already spent 85.7 tons of gold, 215.9 billion yuan, and about 48 billion dollars in Western currencies from the fund.
– This indicates that the ability of the NWF to support the budget is gradually being exhausted, and the new decline in oil revenues only accelerates this process.
3. Amid the fuel crisis in Russia, the cost of truck freight transportation has reached a historic high.
– This is evidenced by data from the country’s largest automotive freight exchange, ATI SU, where carriers and customers make deals.
– The exchange index, reflecting the average level of transportation tariffs on the 100 most popular routes, reached a record 2057 points on June 30. This is the highest figure in the history of observations.
– Record price increases have also been recorded in the segment of refrigerated transportation, used for delivering products, medicines, and other goods requiring a special temperature regime.
– For example, on the Saint Petersburg — Moscow route, following the Ukrainian drone attack on the Moscow refinery, the average cost of transportation increased from 58.9 to 60.8 rubles per kilometer, and over the past year, by 19.2%.
– The increase in transportation costs became one of the consequences of the gasoline shortage that arose after strikes on Russian refineries, leading to fuel shortages in many regions of the country.
4. Russia’s “shadow fleet” began bypassing the English Channel after interceptions by European navies.
– Sanctioned Russian tankers are increasingly avoiding passing through the English Channel after a series of interceptions by British, French, and Swedish naval forces. Vessels choose a longer route around Great Britain via the North Atlantic to avoid entering the territorial waters of European states.
– According to ship tracking systems, at least five sanctioned tankers, which departed from the port of Primorsk on July 4 — one of Russia’s main oil export terminals — followed this route.
– Two more vessels off the coast of Portugal also refused the shorter route through the English Channel. The route changes occurred after British, French, and Swedish navies intercepted 13 tankers of the “shadow fleet” this year.
– An additional factor was Cameroon’s decision to exclude 39 sanctioned vessels from its shipping registry. This allowed European military forces to detain them as effectively flagless vessels. According to an EU security service representative, Russian ships are doing everything possible to avoid entering European countries’ territorial waters.
– The new routes increase travel time by at least one day, and in some cases more than 10 days. For example, the tanker Invicta, after the interception of the vessel Deliver by the French military, abandoned its route through the Mediterranean Sea and the Suez Canal and headed around the Cape of Good Hope.
– Bypassing the English Channel also increases expenses: each tanker is forced to burn up to 100 tons of additional bunker fuel, and fuel costs account for about 60% of the voyage’s cost. This makes transporting Russian oil more expensive and less efficient, increasing economic pressure on the “shadow fleet.”
5. Georgia’s only refinery will refuse Russian oil due to the threat of EU sanctions.
– The company Black Sea Petroleum (BSP), which operates the only oil refinery in Georgia, Kulevi Oil Refinery, has announced a complete cessation of using Russian oil. Starting from August–September 2026, the facility will exclusively process non-Russian-origin crude.
– The company stated that this decision will open access to more profitable international sales markets. The capacity of the first phase of the plant is 1.2 million tons of oil per year. Russian “Russneft” had been supplying raw materials to the facility since October 2025.
– The move away from Russian oil resulted from pressure by the European Union. Previously, the EU considered the possibility of including the port of Kulevi on the sanctions list due to suspicions of Russian oil re-export and the use of the port by “shadow fleet” tankers to evade sanctions.
– Following this, the Georgian authorities promised to close the port to sanctioned Russian tankers and cease the re-export of Russian oil, and now the refinery operator has officially confirmed the complete refusal of its use.
