Information on the current losses of Russia due to sanctions as of 26.03.2026.
1. On the night of March 26, Ukrainian drones attacked one of Russia’s largest oil refineries, “Kirishinefteorgsintez” (KINEF) in the Leningrad region.
– The enterprise is the second largest in Russia in terms of oil processing — up to 20 million tons per year, which is about 7% of the country’s total oil refining. The plant produces gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation kerosene, fuel oil, and petrochemical products.
– This is not the first attack on the enterprise. Ukrainian drones have already hit the plant four times — in March 2024, as well as in March, September, and October 2025.
– After the autumn strike last year, the enterprise was forced to temporarily stop the operation of the key primary processing unit AVT-6, which is one of the most powerful at the plant.
– The current attack took place against the backdrop of a series of strikes on Russia’s key oil export infrastructure. On March 23 and 25, drones attacked the largest Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, after which oil shipments there were temporarily halted.
– As a result, up to 40% of Russian export capacity, equivalent to approximately 2 million barrels of oil per day, was affected. Systematic attacks on Russian oil infrastructure complicate Moscow’s ability to capitalize on high global energy prices.
– Disruptions in the operations of ports and oil refineries limit Russia’s ability to increase exports and earn additional income from energy markets. In a situation where oil and gas revenues remain a key source of funding for the budget and the war, such strikes create increasingly significant financial pressure on the Russian economy.
2. Massive strikes by Ukrainian drones on Russia’s oil infrastructure have led to an unprecedented disruption in its export system.
– Up to 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity has been hit, equivalent to approximately 2 million barrels per day. For a country that remains one of the largest suppliers of oil to the world market, this is one of the most significant logistical disruptions in the modern history of the industry.
– The most significant problems arose in the key Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, which, after a new wave of drone attacks, were again forced to stop shipments. Ust-Luga, through which about 700,000 barrels of oil are exported daily, was hit overnight, resulting in a fire at the port.
– The fire broke out at port infrastructure facilities also used for the export of petroleum products, coal, and fertilizers.
– Simultaneously, Primorsk, the largest Russian oil port on the Baltic Sea with a capacity of about 1 million barrels per day, also halted operations. After the March 22 attack, fuel tanks there caught fire.
– Although both ports briefly attempted to resume operations, they have not returned to normal operation due to infrastructure damage, fires, and the risk of new attacks.
– The problems also affected Novorossiysk, one of Russia’s key Black Sea export hubs. The port, with a capacity of about 700,000 barrels per day, is operating behind its shipment schedule following previous attacks.
– Due to the stoppage of Baltic terminals, tankers have started to accumulate at sea. According to MarineTraffic, at least 50 ships are waiting to enter Primorsk or Ust-Luga in the Gulf of Finland. Smoke from fires in the port zone is visible even from Finnish territory — along dozens of kilometers of the bay’s coastline.
– For the Russian economy, where oil and gas revenues remain a key source of foreign currency, such disruptions pose a serious risk to the budget. Especially due to attacks occurring during a period of high global oil prices — over $100 per barrel, when export revenues should be maximized.
3. Russian industry continues to lose momentum: in February 2026, production fell by another 0.9% after a 0.8% drop in January.
– The decline has been ongoing for the second consecutive month. This is evidenced by Rosstat data. Overall, out of the 28 sectors monitored by the statistical agency, 22 showed a decline.
– The situation has worsened particularly sharply in metallurgy. Production decline in February accelerated to 15.1% from 6.6% in January. The Russian economy is entering 2026 with clear signs of exhaustion.
– Massive budget infusions into the military-industrial complex have effectively displaced resources from the civil sectors of the economy. Additional pressure is created by mobilization and mass emigration, which have exacerbated the labor force shortage.
– Further strengthening of state control, tax increases, nationalization of assets, and strict regulation will only deepen economic problems. In such a governance model, the Russian authorities can inflict as much damage on their own economy as external sanctions.
4. Russian mining and metallurgical company “Mechel” sharply deteriorated in financial results, reflecting the overall crisis in Russia’s raw materials sector and the impact of a strict monetary policy.
– By the end of 2025, the net loss attributable to shareholders more than doubled to 78.6 billion rubles compared to 37.1 billion rubles the previous year. The company’s revenue decreased by 26% to 286.9 billion rubles, while EBITDA plummeted by 86% to 7.7 billion rubles.
– This trend is due to declining sales volumes and prices, as well as a sharp fall in demand for key products. Coal production decreased by 33% to 7.3 million tons due to the shutdown of unprofitable assets. Sales of coking coal concentrate fell by 29%, and thermal coal by 37%.
– Meanwhile, steel production decreased by 2% to 3.3 million tons, against a backdrop of a 14% decline in domestic steel consumption in Russia.
– Financial pressure intensified due to a high key interest rate: debt servicing costs increased, and financial expenses rose by 24% to 56.5 billion rubles. The company’s net debt reached 279.3 billion rubles, and the debt to EBITDA ratio sharply increased to a critical 36.1x from 4.6x the previous year, indicating a significant deterioration in solvency.
– Despite a partial recovery in coal prices in the second half of the year and attempts to restart certain capacities, the overall situation remains unstable.
– Even a gradual decrease in the key rate does not ensure a quick improvement, as accumulated problems — declining demand, high debt load, and increasing costs — continue to pressure results.
– The dynamics of “Mechel” demonstrate the depth of the crisis in the Russian coal and metallurgical industries, which are losing efficiency and increasingly dependent on external conditions and access to financing.
5. Russia’s income from oil and gas exports sharply increased against the backdrop of a global energy shock.
– According to estimates by the Kyiv School of Economics, the Kremlin currently receives about 760 million dollars a day from energy sales. In March, monthly revenues may double from approximately 12 billion to about 24 billion dollars.
– By the end of the year, at least 218.5 billion dollars in revenue is expected, 63% more compared to baseline estimates. This means an additional profit of about 84 billion dollars even with a rapid end to the war and market stabilization.
– If the conflict drags on for another six months, revenues could reach 386.5 billion dollars, 188% more than previous forecasts. The main factor for such a jump was the rise in prices: Brent oil increased by about 38% to around 100 dollars per barrel, while Russian oil rose even more — by 72%.
– Despite the sharp increase in income, such dynamics do not indicate a strengthening of the Russian economy. Revenue is generated from unstable factors — geopolitical tension and price distortions, making it vulnerable to any market changes. This only temporarily compensates for structural problems, such as dependence on raw material exports, sanctions constraints, and rising costs.
6. Russia has begun supplying Iran with strike drones. This is reported by the Financial Times with reference to Western intelligence materials.
– Moscow and Tehran reached a secret agreement on drone supplies in the early days of the conflict, with the delivery of the last batches expected by the end of March.
– The exact number of drones and their modifications have not been disclosed. Western intelligence suggests that the drones in question are “Geran-2” — the Russian version of Iran’s Shahed-136, which Russia produces at its enterprises.
– Meanwhile, Tehran requested Moscow to supply more advanced air defense systems. However, the Russian side refused to transfer the S-400 complexes, fearing further escalation in relations with the United States.
7. The European Union has suspended the approval of a credit plan for Hungary within the SAFE defense program amounting to over €16 billion.
– The reason was Budapest’s position, which continues to block the EU’s decision to allocate €90 billion in military aid to Ukraine. This was reported by the Polish publication RMF24, citing a source among European diplomats.
– Formally, the European Commission states that the procedure is still ongoing and a decision will be made after completing the assessment of Hungary’s plan. However, EU diplomatic circles acknowledge that the delay is of a political nature. Brussels is in no hurry to open financing for Budapest due to the actions of Viktor Orban’s government, which “violates the principle of loyal cooperation” by blocking financial support for the country opposing Russian aggression.
– It concerns the SAFE defense program funds, which provide loans to member states to strengthen military capabilities and support the defense industry. Hungary is claiming one of the largest amounts within this initiative — over €16 billion.
– The situation effectively demonstrates growing tensions within the EU due to Budapest’s position on Russia’s war against Ukraine. Blocking the aid package creates risks for the EU’s defense plans and at the same time increases the isolation of the Hungarian government in European politics.
8. Risks for Russian oil export in the Black Sea are escalating: on the night of March 26, drones attacked a tanker transporting oil from the port of Novorossiysk.
– According to Turkish media, the incident occurred approximately 15 nautical miles from the Bosporus Strait. It concerns the Altura Suezmax class tanker, which was transporting about 1 million barrels of Russian Urals oil. The tanker is under sanctions by the EU, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, and Switzerland, further complicating its maintenance and insurance.
– This is at least the fifth case of attacks on tankers with Russian oil in the Black Sea since the beginning of the year. Previously, vessels related to the transportation of resources from Russian ports, particularly near terminals and approaches to Turkey, were hit.
– The series of incidents demonstrates the growing vulnerability of Russian oil export logistics and increased risks for shipping in the region.
– This puts additional pressure on Russia’s export operations, increases transportation and insurance costs, and complicates the use of even indirect energy supply channels.
Illustration generated by AI
