Today I came across a thought about the successes of the Russians at the front, like “well they’re slow, but they’re moving”…
Yes, that’s true. For now. But there’s always a but.
If you remember, I previously wrote that for our units one of the problems of summer would be foliage on the trees. And that’s true. Because tree canopies greatly aid infiltration tactics, making it difficult for drones to spot enemies in the groves.
But to infiltrate, infantry is needed with the expectation that in the best case, one out of ten might reach somewhere near our positions.
And the situation with the infantry is bad, and they are not in the same condition as before. Because when you have less infantry than needed to exert necessary pressure on the line, the infantry either doesn’t reach at all or reaches quite rarely.
I can say that the Russians have problems with infantry.
Literally yesterday, I spoke with my guys, and they directly said that the mass has decreased. If earlier in a particular grove they eliminated five, now, in the same time frame, they eliminate 1-2, which is not bad for today. And even then, they still don’t reach the assault point.
I know the sector they’re trying to approach near Pokrovsk very well. I lived nearby for almost four years. It’s a very challenging area for our drone operators. There are dense groves, many abandoned homes in ruined villages where it’s easy to hide and gather, and a rather complex terrain. If the Russians had as much infantry as a year ago, we would see a much worse situation.
And this is considering that the Russians have withdrawn many forces from other directions to increase pressure towards Sloviansk to fulfill the plan of capturing the Donetsk region. But there are not enough forces. And their numbers are diminishing, which adds to the beginning of logistical collapse, and they don’t know what to do with it today.
Russia is starting a covert mobilization, but even to accumulate the necessary manpower, time is needed. And they are currently in a situation where manpower is needed right now because the deadlines for capturing the Donetsk region are pressing, the development of UAV units in the Armed Forces of Ukraine indicates that it will get worse, financial problems in Russia do not allow for long-term planning, and autumn-winter with weather conditions will add sanitary issues.
If earlier the rear was protected in winter from strike wings by clouds at altitudes of 100-200 meters, today our wings successfully fly at such altitudes en masse. This means cutting logistics will continue in winter, and more actively than before.
For now, what they have concentrated is enough to gradually push through the difficult terrain for us, but the people are evidently running out. This is a good sign. This means that we are close to finally stabilizing the line, digging stable positions, and firing from the sky on occupied and Russian territories with a stable line of contact. And this will mean complete failure for Russian plans.
So yes, they have successes for now. But the trend is not in their favor, even with favorable weather conditions for assaults. Let’s hope these trends don’t change.
Photo: Occupier’s media
