Information on current losses of RF due to sanctions as of 01.04.2026.
1. Russian oil exports sharply decreased after Ukrainian drone attacks on key Baltic ports of RF.
– From March 22 to 29, the total volume of maritime exports fell by 43% — from 4.072 to 2.318 million barrels per day. During this period, only 22 tankers left Russian ports, which is 15 less than the previous week.
– The biggest drop was recorded in the Baltic direction. From the port of Primorsk, Russia’s main oil hub, only 4 tankers were sent compared to 10 the previous week.
– The financial losses of Russian oil companies were also significant. During the week of problems with the Baltic infrastructure, export revenue decreased from $2.45 billion to $1.44 billion, despite the rise in the price of Russian Urals oil by $11.3 — to $73.24 per barrel.
– Thus, the strikes on the Baltic Sea port infrastructure led to the largest drop in Russian maritime oil exports since the beginning of the full-scale war.
2. Drone attacks continue to hinder the operation of Russian oil infrastructure and complicate raw material exports.
– The Kirishinefteorgsintez oil refinery in the Leningrad region, which halted after drone strikes, will be able to partially resume operations in about a month.
– During this period, they can launch three out of four primary processing units, allowing the plant to operate at about 60% capacity.
– Fuel production may partially recover, but further exports remain problematic due to damage to key port nodes.
– The situation is worsened by repeated attacks on Baltic export ports. In particular, the port of Ust-Luga suffered at least five strikes in ten days, resulting in damage to the oil terminal. Previously, the port of Primorsk, one of the main channels for the export of Russian oil, was also attacked.
– Even in the case of partial processing restart, Russia faces increasingly serious restrictions on the export of oil and oil products due to systematic strikes on logistics infrastructure.
3. The net profit of Russia’s largest oil company, Rosneft, decreased by 73% in 2025.
– The company explains the sharp decline in results due to high interest rates, increased tax burdens, and one-time expenses.
– Additional pressure on the industry is created by sanctions: in October 2025, the US imposed restrictions against the Russian oil sector, including both Rosneft and Lukoil on the sanctions list.
– Despite the rise in global oil prices, the profitability of Russian exports is falling due to the sharp increase in logistics costs. In March, tanker freight from the Baltic Sea to India exceeded $20 per barrel — ten times more than the cost of transportation to Europe at the beginning of 2022.
– Global oil prices have surged: in March, Brent increased by 64%, and WTI by 52%. At the same time, high prices no longer guarantee stable profits for Russian companies, as sanctions, expensive logistics, insurance, and financial expenses reduce the efficiency of Russian oil exports.
4. The decline in Russian manufacturing accelerated in March.
– The PMI index fell to 48.3 points from 49.5 in February, remaining below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. This is the worst figure in 2026 and a signal of further deterioration in the industry.
– The main driver of the decline was the reduction in new orders, which became the fastest since October last year. Companies directly cite a fall in demand and a decline in customer purchasing power. Export orders also continued to decrease, adding additional pressure on manufacturers.
– Production volumes are shrinking for the third consecutive month, with the rate of decline becoming the highest in the last quarter. In response, companies are sharply cutting raw material purchases — this indicator showed the strongest drop in four years.
– Businesses are also forced to reduce inventories and optimize costs. Negative trends are already affecting employment: in March, enterprises continued to reduce staff for the fourth consecutive month.
– The reasons cited are reduced production volumes and a shift to more flexible forms of labor compensation. Meanwhile, business costs are rising. Producers face increased prices for fuel and raw materials, driving cost inflation. However, companies cannot fully pass these costs onto consumers due to high competition and weak demand, further squeezing margins.
– A separate negative signal was the fall in business expectations to a nearly four-year low. Companies are increasingly pessimistic about their prospects, citing weak demand and risks of non-payment from clients.
– Collectively, these factors indicate a deepening of structural problems in Russian industry, where production, investment activity, and employment are simultaneously shrinking, and the opportunities for recovery remain limited.
5. Asian countries are sharply increasing their purchases of Russian oil.
– Due to supply disruptions from the Middle East and rising energy prices, several countries in the region have started seeking alternative sources. Previously, the main buyers of Russian oil after the start of the war against Ukraine were India and China, but now new importers are joining them.
– Specifically, the Philippines and South Korea have already received shipments of Russian oil or oil products, while Vietnam and Sri Lanka are negotiating with Russian companies. Thailand and Indonesia have also announced their readiness to start purchases.
– This is explained by the sharp deterioration of the market situation. Countries in the region find themselves in a virtually desperate situation due to an energy resource shortage and are forced to use any available options.
– As a result, Russian oil, traditionally sold at a discount, is becoming a key alternative. According to Veson Nautical, even before the escalation, about 85% of Russian oil exports went to China and India. Now these flows are not only maintained but also increased.
– India, taking advantage of the US relaxing its sanctions position, has significantly increased imports: from approximately 1 million barrels per day in February to about 1.9 million barrels by the end of March.
– Some supplies that previously went to China have even been redirected to India, as Indian buyers began paying a premium over the price — almost 5% higher, to ensure stable volumes.
– Meanwhile, officials in Southeast Asian countries openly acknowledge that they are forced to revise their energy policies. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. stated that Manila is exploring all possible supply sources, including unconventional ones, to offset the impact of the war in the Middle East.
– The redistribution of energy flows indicates the formation of a new configuration of the global oil market, where geopolitical factors increasingly determine supply routes and volumes.
6. Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe increased by 22% year-on-year in March.
– The average daily deliveries of “Gazprom” through the “Turkish Stream” pipeline reached about 55 million cubic meters. According to the European network of gas transmission system operators Entsog, the total monthly pumping volume was approximately 1.7 billion cubic meters compared to 1.4 billion cubic meters in March 2025.
– The increase occurred due to the sharp escalation of the situation in energy markets: the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil, petroleum products, and liquefied gas shipments typically pass, became practically inaccessible to most vessels due to the war with Iran. This significantly limited alternative supply sources and increased the demand for pipeline gas.
– Turkey currently remains the only transit route for Russian gas to Europe after the termination of the five-year agreement with Ukraine in January 2025. This significantly increased the importance of the “Turkish Stream” for the European market.
– At the end of the first quarter, Russian gas exports to Europe increased by approximately 11% year-on-year — to about 5 billion cubic meters. Meanwhile, in the long term, volumes remain significantly below historical levels.
– It is estimated that in 2025, Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe decreased by 44% — to about 18 billion cubic meters, the lowest level since the mid-1970s. For comparison, in 2018–2019, supplies reached approximately 180 billion cubic meters per year.
7. The US lifted sanctions on three Russian cargo ships that were previously sanctioned due to connections with sanctioned entities.
– The container ships Fesco Magadan and Fesco Moneron have been removed from the sanctions list. They were previously restricted as assets of PSB Leasing, a subsidiary of Promsvyazbank, which has been under sanctions since February 2022.
– The dry cargo ship SV Nikolay was also removed from the sanctions list. It was added to the list in April 2022, along with other ships associated with Alfa-Leasing.
– The ship SV Nikolay was used to transport Ukrainian grain from occupied Sevastopol to Turkey. In 2025, the ship carried metallurgical coke from occupied Mariupol to Algeria.
– The cargo provider was a Hong Kong-registered company, Green Rabbit, specializing in exporting coal and grain from occupied territories of Donbas.
– The company is led by Muslim Temerkaev — an advisor to Marat Kabaev, father of Alina Kabaeva, who is associated with Putin.
8. At least 25 Russian ships under sanctions passed through British waters after the UK government’s statements about the possibility of their detention.
– It concerns tankers of the so-called “shadow fleet” that Russia uses to export oil bypassing restrictions. Despite Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s statement about the military’s readiness to board such vessels and detain them, the intensity of the movement has not changed—ships continue to navigate along the southern coast of England at the same volumes as before.
– The British authorities hoped that the mere threat of compulsory actions would force the vessels to change routes and avoid passing through the English Channel, which is a key route between the Baltic Sea and southern Europe.
– However, this has not happened, and no cases of actual detention or boarding of Russian vessels have been recorded since the announcement. This is explained by the complexity of such operations and legal restrictions. According to maritime law experts, London has very limited grounds for intervention in the transit of foreign vessels.
– Specifically, there is no UN Security Council mandate, and using sanctions as a basis for forceful actions is considered a controversial and unproven mechanism.
– The Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom states that any measures will be considered individually and refuses to comment on possible actions in advance. Meanwhile, the absence of practical steps reduces the deterrent effect of the sanction policy.
– Other European countries, including France, Belgium, and Sweden, have already detained vessels as part of counteracting Russia’s sanction evasion network.
– The situation unfolds simultaneously with rising oil prices due to the war in the Middle East, which, according to the British government, gives Moscow the opportunity to earn additional income from energy exports despite sanction pressure.
Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka
