Glory to Ukraine!
Glory to the defenders of Ukraine and all modern civilization!
- “Peace process” and peace process
- The US will sell guided aerial bombs to Ukraine
- War with Iran: ceasefire with skirmishes and so far fruitless search for a resolution
- Another defeat for the 47th president in court: his latest customs tariffs declared illegal
▶ We haven’t spoken about the “peace process” in the Russian-Ukrainian war for a long time. There was no reason, as there was no news related to this “process.”
Actually, in reality, there never was any peace process, without quotes.
A few meetings between Ukrainian and Russian representatives in the spring of 2022 had nothing to do with the peace process. Russia tried to achieve Ukraine’s capitulation at these meetings and, having failed, stopped them.
Bilateral and trilateral meetings (with U.S. representatives) held after Trump’s return to the White House also had nothing to do with the peace process. The 47th president, dreaming of a Nobel Prize, business projects in Russia, and considering himself an unrivaled peacemaker, believed he could achieve war cessation. He didn’t care under what conditions. At some point, he decided it was easier to pressure Ukraine to virtually capitulate. However, he faced Ukraine’s categorical refusal of such a development—refusal supported by European leaders. Since then, these bilateral and trilateral meetings were, on the one hand, a spectacle for one viewer—Donald Trump, and on the other hand, a diplomatic game for both Ukraine and Russia, aimed at preventing Trump from acting in favor of the opposing side.
Russia needed Trump not to impose new sanctions, or better yet, to lift existing sanctions, not to resume aid to Ukraine or sell it weapons. Naturally, Ukraine sought exactly the opposite.
And the friend of the 47th president, Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, being the de facto unofficial collective Secretary of State, were filled with dreams of $12 trillion, depicted by Putin and Dmitriev for them and their friend and father-in-law as profits from Potemkin village “business projects” in Russia.
The war with Iran, initiated by the U.S. and Israel on February 28, completely shifted the attention of both Trump and his friend and son-in-law. The “peace process” was not mentioned for more than two months.
During this time, a peace process (without quotes) in the war with Iran even began to take shape. Trump called for a ceasefire, and Iran reciprocated (this is where a genuine peace process in any war not ending with the capitulation of one side begins), leading to direct and indirect peace talks. The ceasefire is being violated by both sides, but the large-scale war with massive missile and bomb strikes has stopped. Whether these talks will lead to an agreement or the large-scale war will resume is unknown. Today marks exactly one month since the formal ceasefire has been in effect, with ongoing diplomatic contacts.
This always happens when both warring sides agree to at least try to negotiate something. There can be no peace talks during full-scale hostilities.
The “peace process” that was simulated in the form of two- and three-party negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the USA could not be considered a peace process for the simple reason that Putin never intended to conduct any peace negotiations. If he had, he would have agreed to stop the fighting when Trump proposed it soon after returning to the White House. Or when Ukraine’s President Zelensky proposed an indefinite ceasefire from May 6.
However, Putin’s goal has always been, and remains, the capitulation of Ukraine, its disappearance, not peace.
There’s nothing new in Putin’s aide Ushakov stating that Russia is unwilling to return to trilateral negotiations unless Ukraine withdraws from Donbas, that is, capitulates, from the perspective of Putin’s position and his desire to achieve Ukraine’s capitulation.
What’s new is Putin’s attitude towards Trump. Given that Putin decided he no longer needs to play the “peace process” game with Trump, to cease participation in the spectacle for one audience member, it follows that, from Putin’s perspective, Trump’s position is weakened today by the war with Iran and the lack of visible prospects for concessions from Iran on both its nuclear program and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump’s position is further weakened by the revelation that the 47th president was forced to cease “Project Freedom,” an operation to ensure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, after Saudi Arabia denied him the use of its airspace and infrastructure for conducting this operation. This occurred despite Trump specifically calling MBS – the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia – to resolve this issue (when you advise someone to kiss your *ss, as the 47th president advised MBS, you can’t expect them to do you any favors in a month).
▶ The 47th president, however, has one interesting quality. He greatly enjoys selling something and receiving money for it. The process brings him genuine pleasure.
On May 5, the State Department approved the sale of high-precision guided aerial bombs to Ukraine. The following official statement appeared on the State Department’s website:
“The U.S. Department of State has decided to approve a possible sale of military equipment to a foreign country – the Government of Ukraine – in the form of extended-range Direct Attack Munition Kits (JDAM-ER) and associated equipment. The estimated total value of the deal is $373.6 million.”
The government of Ukraine has submitted a request to purchase one thousand two hundred (1200) KMU-572 tail kits for Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) and three hundred thirty-two (332) KMU-556 tail kits for JDAM. The list will also include the following non-major defense equipment (MDE) items: FMU-139 fuze systems; JDAM support equipment; spare and repair parts, consumables, and accessories, as well as repair and return services; weapon system software and support equipment; classified and unclassified reference materials and technical documentation; transportation support; research and surveys; engineering and logistics support from the US government and contractors; and other related elements of logistical and program support.
This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security goals of the United States by enhancing the security of a partner country, which is a factor of political stability and economic progress in Europe.
The proposed sale will enhance Ukraine’s ability to counter current and future threats by providing additional means to undertake self-defense and regional security tasks by strengthening air defense capabilities. Ukraine will not face difficulties in integrating these systems and services into its armed forces structure.
The proposed sale of this equipment and support will not alter the basic military balance in the region.
Boeing’s plant based in St. Louis, Missouri, will be the primary contractor.
This proposed transaction will not negatively impact the readiness levels of the US armed forces.
These precision-guided bombs are not new to Ukraine. They have been included in American military aid packages to Ukraine several times in 2023-2024. Ukrainian and American engineers have found solutions allowing MiG-29 and Su-27 aircraft to be equipped with the technical means to use these bombs. Ukraine has successfully applied them many times.
Trump halted aid to Ukraine. However, he does not refuse to sell weapons to Ukraine for money. Although the Trump State Department’s statement does not mention Ukraine’s resistance to Russian aggression, it refers to Ukraine as a partner country and states that strengthening its security is in the national interests of the US.
▶ Returning to the situation in the war with Iran, it can be reiterated: Trump is seeking a way out. But he is not finding it. On Thursday, Iran fired missiles and attacked with drones three American destroyers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The destroyers were unharmed. The US retaliated against locations from which the missiles and drones were launched. Trump hastened to claim that a ceasefire is being observed and that Thursday’s exchange of strikes was “love taps.” He added that journalists would know if the ceasefire ends “by the glow over a burning Iran.” But then he said he was waiting for Iran’s response to American peace proposals.
▶ On Thursday, the 47th president suffered another painful defeat in court. In New York, the Court of International Trade declared the 10% tariff on imports of all goods from all countries, introduced by Trump for 150 days, illegal after the Supreme Court recognized his previous arbitrary tariffs as unconstitutional.
When implementing the 150-day tariffs, the president justified them with a provision from the Trade Act granting the president the right to impose tariffs in case of a serious deficit in the “balance of trade.” However, the Trade Act refers not to the “balance of trade” deficit, but to the “balance of payments” deficit. The balance of payments includes payments for goods as well as various services. The balance of trade includes payments only for imported and exported goods. The U.S. has a foreign trade deficit with many countries, indicating a lack of trade balance with them. However, with many of these same countries, there is no balance of payments deficit, or it is significantly lower than the trade deficit, since the U.S. provides many services to various countries. The court ruled that the Trade Act does not allow the president to impose tariffs due to a trade balance deficit and that, in adopting the Trade Act in 1974, legislators clearly stated that they meant the balance of payments, not the balance of trade.
There is no doubt that the president will appeal the court’s decision. Practically, there is also no doubt that higher courts will uphold the Court of International Trade’s decision.
Meanwhile, Trump threatened in a tweet on Thursday afternoon with new tariffs on imports from the European Union immediately after U.S. Independence Day. However, he has no legal means to arbitrarily impose new customs tariffs. Therefore, this threat does not actually appear to be a threat.
There are 989 days left until the end of the story called “Fear: Trump in the White House” © (the title of Bob Woodward’s book published in 2018).
Thank you to everyone who read this. Take care of yourself and your loved ones. Take care of each other, help each other. Wishing everyone health.
Ultimately, what happens in the world depends on us. Whether we fight against evil, do Good, remain mere observers, passively wait and believe that someone, somewhere will decide for us, or fight evil and do everything possible for Good to prevail.
We must not allow evil to win. The victory of evil would mean the end of the world we live in. We cannot allow this. Especially now.
Ukrainian Friends, I embrace and love you all. Please take care of each other, I urge you.
Ukraine exists and will always exist.
And evil will be defeated and punished. And this is certain.
