Glory to Ukraine!
Glory to the defenders of Ukraine and all modern civilization!
- Trump continues to seek a way out of his deep strategic failure – the war with Iran
- What the president does when not finding a way out of the war with Iran: turns cabinet meetings into a reality show, takes revenge on his “enemies,” dreams of seeing himself on a banknote that will never be issued
▶ The main topic of attention in the USA since February 28 has been the war with Iran. Since April 7, when the 47th president announced a ceasefire, the topic has transformed into speculation about whether Trump will make an agreement with Iran that he can declare his victory, and if he does, what exactly will be specified in this agreement.
Since then, many times the president himself has stated that the negotiations are going well, that Iran is eager to reach an agreement with him, that it is unclear whom exactly to talk to in Iran, that Iran must acknowledge its fleet lies at the bottom of the sea, that he will not sign a bad agreement, that Iran will never have a nuclear bomb, that he will resume the war if an agreement is not reached, that the negotiations are going well, and so on in a cycle, and again in a cycle, over and over…
The day before yesterday, he suddenly stated that the agreement with Iran should be conditioned on the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, by which signing Arab countries establish diplomatic relations with Israel. Trump obviously forgot that the UAE was one of the countries that originally signed these accords when he was the 45th president, established relations with Israel, which became even quite close on a political and business level. And at the level of ordinary people – intensive regular air communication was established between the countries. The Saudi crown prince MBS, back in 2023, made it a condition for Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords that Israel agrees to the creation of a Palestinian state in the future. Immediately after Trump’s statement, Saudi Arabia announced that its position has not changed.
The 47th president is playing a game he understands, “you scratch my back, and I’ll scratch yours.” Since the possible agreement with Iran, if its outlines are correctly depicted in the media, can only be called a strategic failure for Trump, the 47th wants something to showcase as his victory. But so far, it’s not working out.
On Wednesday, Trump threatened to “blow up Oman” if Oman, together with Iran, decided to “privatize” the Strait of Hormuz (with one shore in Oman and the other in Iran) and charge fees to ships passing through. For those who don’t know, Oman has been a close ally of the US in the Persian Gulf for many years. But the 47th president’s attitude towards allies isn’t new—he is ready to “blow up” any of them.
On Thursday, Vice President Vance and Treasury Secretary Bessent, in separate statements, announced that the “memorandum of understanding” with Iran is ready, but the president needs to thoroughly review it, and the memorandum will only be signed if the president approves it.
It should be noted that an MOU is a memorandum of understanding and is not a binding international document. It is a declaration that signatories may adhere to out of good will. If there is no good will, they may choose not to adhere to it.
According to information obtained by American media from White House sources, the memorandum of understanding provides for the lifting of the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the blockade of Iranian ports by the US. From the moment the memorandum comes into force, negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program will begin, including the fate of enriched uranium stocks, for which 60 days will be allotted.
Why should such a memorandum be considered a strategic failure for Trump?
1) The Strait of Hormuz was open until February 28 and navigation through it was free. Its opening now, presented by Trump as a “victory” and as a “result” of the war, would be laughable if it did not signify the senselessness of the war with such a “result.” It is a clear strategic failure—a war with significant casualties, enormous material damage for all Middle Eastern countries, depleted stocks of strategic munitions like PAC-3 missiles for PATRIOT air defense systems, and Tomahawk missiles, with billions of dollars spent by American taxpayers, all just to open a Strait of Hormuz that was open before military actions began. Additionally, for safe navigation to resume after the de-mining of the Strait, time will be required. Resuming oil, gas, and fertilizer supplies through the Strait of Hormuz at their previous levels will also take considerable time due to the damage inflicted on the relevant infrastructure by Iranian strikes. Therefore, it is impossible to expect a quick reduction in oil, energy, and electricity prices or a decrease in inflation growth, even if the strait is unblocked right now.
2) The future of Iran’s nuclear program remains uncertain. It can be stated in a memorandum that negotiations will take place over 60 days, but this does not necessarily mean that an agreement can be reached within that time. Summarizing reports from administration sources cited by American media, it appears that Trump will attempt to reach an agreement with Iran similar to the JCPOA, concluded in 2015 but terminated by Trump in 2018. Under this agreement, Iran committed never to pursue nuclear weapons, allowed IAEA inspectors into its nuclear facilities, exported all uranium enriched above 3% out of the country (to Russia), and was prohibited from enriching uranium above 3% for 10 years and producing centrifuges for its enrichment within the same period. After Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, despite the fact that both American intelligence in a report to Congress on security threats in February 2018 and the IAEA claimed that Iran was complying with the agreement, Iran stopped complying and began enriching uranium. Currently, Iran possesses nearly 500 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, sufficient to create several nuclear bombs, and 10.5 tons of less enriched uranium, which can quickly be enriched to 60%. Negotiations to reach the JCPOA agreement lasted 3 years, and American diplomats who participated in those talks, including the former Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman who led them from the American side, say that negotiating with Iran is very challenging since Iranian diplomats use any loophole or excuse to achieve their goals, including the desire to prolong negotiations as much as possible.
A rhetorical question: how can one describe (potentially) reaching an agreement with Iran similar to the JCPOA as a result of war, if such an agreement was already made 11 years ago without war, but was broken by Trump 8 years ago?
3) The Iranian missile program was not discussed in the media leaks that occurred on Thursday, nor was the cessation of Iran’s support for its proxy forces in the Middle East. Incidentally, the draft memorandum, according to media reports, provides for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which Netanyahu is very unhappy about.
4) During active military actions from February 28 to April 7, the US and its allies expended about 1,200 PAC-3 missiles for the PATRIOT air defense systems. The US expended about 850 Tomahawk missiles. The result is a severe shortage of both types of missiles. Since RTX (Raytheon) produces 720 PAC-3 missiles a year and 100 to 200 Tomahawk missiles a year, it will take 20 months—1 year and 8 months—just to replenish the PAC-3 missile stock, and at best 3 and a half years for the Tomahawks. The question of how soon the US can sell PAC-3 missiles to Ukraine becomes rhetorical unless we imagine a highly unlikely scenario in which the 47th president suddenly decides to sell missiles to Ukraine or European countries for Ukraine before at least partially replenishing American reserves.
▶ What else the 47th president is focused on besides seeking a way out of the war with Iran.
● On Wednesday, he held another session of his cabinet live on television. All his ministers once again took turns singing his praises and expressing how happy they were to work under his leadership, acknowledging the prosperity he brought to the USA. He listened partly, partly dozed off. However, he did deliver a speech, mostly about how he is reconstructing the pool at the Lincoln Memorial. The 47th presidency is the first in American history where nothing is discussed or decided at cabinet meetings. These meetings have been turned into a reality show broadcasted on TV.
● On Wednesday, it was revealed that the federal prosecution has opened a criminal case and will attempt to charge journalist and writer E. Jean Carroll with perjury. Trump was found guilty by a jury of sexual assault against her. Another jury then found him guilty of defaming her, as he claimed he did not know her and that she falsely accused him. Citizen Trump, according to the decisions of two courts, must pay Ms. Carroll over $80 million in compensation. Using the federal prosecution as an instrument of revenge has become routine practice for the 47th president. If this case proceeds, it cannot have any judicial prospects. But the process of revenge is more important to the avenger than the result.
● Finance Minister Scott Bessent prepared for the USA’s 250th anniversary the release of a $250 bill featuring Trump’s portrait. However, Bessent, speaking to journalists at the White House, acknowledged that there is an existing law prohibiting the depiction of living people on money. He expressed hope that Congress would change the law to make an exception for the current president. It should be immediately stated that the likelihood of Congress passing such a law is exactly zero, as it would never gather the needed 60 votes for consideration in the Senate. Nonetheless, Bessent has already printed the bill (perhaps more than one). At least he will gift it to the person whose portrait is on the bill. It will be an addition to the Nobel medal. The medal, however, is genuine (although not intended for the main “peacemaker”), and the unauthorized bill remains fake, as it will continue to be.
Another aspect of the 47th president’s activities includes those who learn in advance about his tweets on the war with Iran, earning hundreds of millions by trading oil futures, as discussed in the weekend events review.
The story titled “Fear: Trump in the White House” © (the title of Bob Woodward’s book published in 2018) has 968 days left.
Thank you to everyone who read. Take care of yourselves and your loved ones. Take care of each other, help each other. Wishing everyone good health.
Ultimately, what happens in the world depends on us. Whether we fight evil, do good, remain mere spectators, wait passively, and believe that someone somewhere will decide for us, or fight evil and do everything possible for good to prevail.
We must not allow evil to win. The victory of evil would mean the end of the world we live in. We cannot allow this. Especially now.
Ukrainian friends, I hug and love you all. Please take care of each other, I ask you very much.
Ukraine is and will always be.
And evil will be defeated and punished. This is inevitable.
