In June, the adversary achieved tactical success in the area of Kostyantynivka. This development in the operational situation suggests that the loss of the city is a matter of time. Let’s try to understand what’s happening on the southern flank of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.
The adversary’s actions in the Kostyantynivka direction are not unprecedented — it’s about squeezing the forces of the 19th Corps of the Defense Forces out of the Kostyantynivka area. These actions also have two accompanying tactical goals — to eliminate the salient of the Defense Forces Mykolaivka — Chervone — Stinky — Podil’s’ke and break through to the approaches to Druzhkivka along the Kazennyi Torets River, the road from Volodymyrivka to Druzhkivka and simultaneously from Chasiv Yar.
If the 3rd Army of the aggressor successfully acts north of Sloviansk, it would finally allow the enemy’s “South” Command to form the same favorable conditions for conducting the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk offensive operation.
On the southern flank of the agglomeration, so far, the advanced units of the 70th Division of the 18th Army of the adversary have broken through to the eastern outskirts of Virolyubivka, and the 3rd Corps has reached the area of Novodmytrivka, but in the north, the enemy has achieved no significant successes.
The aggressor’s forces are operating with two tactical groups – “Bakhmut” and “Dzerzhynsk” (in our terms – “Toretsk”, a conditional division proposed by military observer K. Mashovets).
TG “Bakhmut” — the 3rd Army Corps of the “West” Command without part of its forces (72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade, 1008th, 1307th, 1442nd Territorial Defense Regiments, which were at one time included in the 6th Division of the same corps, 89th Tank Regiment of the 6th Division, 10th Tank Regiment of the 20th Division. On the flanks are the 70th Division from the 18th Army of the “Dnepr” Command, advancing towards Chasiv Yar – Druzhkivka, and the 20th Division of the 8th Army, operating in the directions of Sofiivka — Rayske and Rusyn Yar — Druzhkivka.
Our intelligence reports that TG has not received reinforcements for a long time. The tank regiments are used unusually — in the first echelon, motorized rifle battalions of regiments (one in each regiment) rush forward, while the tank battalions (three per regiment) are not at the forefront, from time to time tank fire groups of one to two tanks are observed, which, having fired their ammunition, disappear into the rear unless they burn out by that point.
TGr “Dzerzhinsk” — mainly the troops of the 8th army, reinforced with what was at hand with the commanders (the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Division of the 8th Army, units of the 10th Tank Regiment (yes, a regiment divided between two TGr) of the 20th Division of the same army, the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army, the 54th MRR of the 6th Division of the 3rd Army Corps, which actually strengthened the battered 103rd MRR and 10th TR, the 1194th MRR of the territorial troops of the 3rd Army, 1219th, 1436th, 1465th MRR of the territorial troops of the 51st Army, the 20th and 155th consolidated rifle regiments of the Navy, the 77th MRR of the 49th Army (assembled from personnel of the 7th military base of the adversary in Abkhazia and more like a regimental tactical group). From time to time, groups from the 78th Motorized Regiment of Special Purpose “Sever-Akhmat” of the 42nd Division of the 58th Army UA “Dnepr” appear here. The regiment itself is definitely not here.
Untypically: the tank battalions also operate mainly in infantry assault units, tanks are used sporadically, in groups of two or three vehicles.
About the territorial troops regiments: they are the ones that carry out assault actions, they are the ones through whom the respective military units are replenished, and overall these are the regiments that the Russian military command does not spare — there is no armor, as there was not enough for regular troops, and the price of a “Russian hero’s” life is a coin for a bunch on market day.
The enemy’s attempts to capture Kostyantynivka began in August 2025 after the battles in the areas of Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, towns to the northeast and southeast of Kostyantynivka respectively, were concluded. After 26 months of fighting, Chasiv Yar has not been fully captured even today.
The enemy has been making efforts all this time to dominate the air over the tactical zone, using these gains for the infiltration of infantry groups and assault operations of somewhat larger scope.
In 14 months of an offensive campaign, the occupiers advanced approximately nine kilometers towards Kostyantynivka, reaching the city limits only in October 2025, where they now control 12.69%.
However, throughout June, the enemy intensified efforts to capture and eliminate the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka defense district, held by the 19th Defense Forces Corps. Under certain conditions, the enemy is capable of successfully accomplishing this task.
The enemy’s “South” Command focuses efforts on the left flank of the group, delivering the main blow with the main forces of the 8th Army and nearly the entire 3rd Corps, reinforced by forces and means drawn from other armies and even groups. This diverse assembly led to the unification of forces into two Tactical Groups. Clearly, the occupiers will try to defeat our 19th Corps in two stages — breaking through to the outskirts of the city and infiltrating a maximum amount of infantry into Kostyantynivka without an operational pause, engaging in urban battles, pushing us out of the area.
The enemy’s 3rd Corps Tactical Group “Bakhmut,” advancing towards Stupochki — Kostyantynivka, penetrated the eastern part of the city, capturing the southern part of Novodmytrivka, though not fully controlling it. With part of the forces, advancing from the line Stupochki — Predtechyne along the road Pokrovsk — Bakhmut, the advance groups of the 3rd Corps broke through to the southeastern part of the city and moved towards the “Kostyantynivka” railway station. The occupiers have not yet succeeded in capturing the station.
On the right flank of the 8th Army’s attack sector, where the main blow is delivered, Tactical Group “Dzerzhynsk” broke through simultaneously in several areas to the western and central parts of Kostyantynivka and entrenched there. There is a breakthrough in the tactical defense zone of the 19th Corps towards the western part of Kostyantynivka. In the directions of Yablunivka — Stepanivka and Illinivka — Dovga Balka, the enemy’s advance was halted, and from Dovga Balka they were pushed back altogether.
Kostiantyn Mashovets indicates that the battles for the Kostiantynivsky defense district have entered the final phase, as the enemy has simultaneously broken through several sectors to the city, sharply destabilizing the resilience of the entire 19th Corps defense system in this area.
Speaking of prospects, they are challenging for the Defense Forces. If the enemy’s assault groups manage to advance towards each other and break through to the Central City Market, the situation in Kostiantynivka for the 19th Corps will rapidly deteriorate. Currently, there are about two kilometers between the forward groups of the 3rd Corps and the 8th Army. The physical obstacle for the aggressor is the Kryvyi Torets River, which the enemy stormtroopers will have to overcome. If they succeed, the position of the Ukrainian defenders in the center of Konstakha will become extremely difficult.
From a purely military-scientific perspective, the enemy shows nothing new tactically. The occupiers act standardly, as before in settlements with dense construction and numerous industrial zones. The enemy acted similarly in Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, and is trying to act in Lyman. Again, we see pressure on the flanks to encircle the city, breakthrough into residential areas by separate assault groups simultaneously in several sectors and directions, followed by mass infiltration of the main force of its assault infantry through these areas and regions.
It is clear that within the framework of the enemy’s summer offensive campaign, in the coming months, one should expect a sharp escalation of hostilities along the entire arc of Ukrainian defense in the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration (i.e., in the Lyman, Slovyansk, Kostiantynivka, and Dobropillia directions).
To capture Kostiantynivka, the enemy concentrated the main forces of the army and army corps, indicating the significance of this operational task. The enemy replenished up to 80% of the units involved in the assault actions in the city.
Forecast of the operational situation development. The Defense Forces will leave Kostyantynivka by mid-summer, but the enemy will not be able to capture the Fortress Belt by the end of the year. The enemy’s 3rd Corps will continue fighting for Chasiv Yar and attempt to encircle Kostyantynivka from the northeast and north. However, Ukrainian troops recently counterattacked near Chasiv Yar and maintain control over Podilske and Mykolaivka, which distances the 3rd Corps from completing its combat mission.
The enemy’s attempts to break through to Sloviansk on the northern flank of the Fortress Belt indicate a high priority for this direction in their military plans, but successes are minimal, so the enemy is trying to achieve something on the southern flank, near Kostyantynivka. All these operational actions and switching directions are part of a single plan.
The failures of the occupiers on the Kupiansk direction and near Lyman make it impossible to conduct a coordinated operation to capture Sloviansk and to carry out any sensible, at least tactical, actions in the areas of Kupiansk and Borova.
The Defense Forces recently conducted counterattacks near Borova, which put the enemy’s Western Command in the position of choosing between holding positions and advancing to the north and northwest of Lyman.
Cover photo: 95th Separate Air Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces
