Analysis of the massive strike on Ukraine, June 15

Analysis of the massive strike on Ukraine on June 15
Serhiy Misyura

A few interesting moments regarding the night combined attack. Yansur anaboy – an eternal fact, but we need to look a bit more closely.

The main goal once again – depleting our ever-diminishing stock of Rak-3 rockets for Patriots. More and more ballistics, which only these scarce missiles can intercept.

And although Pak-3 missiles are decreasing with each attack, this time the Air Force showed they have learned from past mistakes. On June 2, we couldn’t shoot down 8 Zircons (for the first time, they came from two directions. Besides Crimea, Bryansk region was added), but today, again from two directions, we SHOT DOWN 5 out of 6 Zircons!

Regarding the ballistic Iskanders, the success rate has also increased. Last time, they shot down 11 out of 33, and today they shot down 15 out of 34!

And also, ALL 30 cruise missiles were SHOT DOWN, making the picture much brighter, right?

Regarding ballistics, we also need a closer look. Not all Iskanders were aimed at Kyiv. Not all ballistics were Iskanders. There were also S-400s that flew not toward Kyiv (Kharkiv and Dnipro).

And the main point! As far as I watched the timing, most likely, there were no reloads for the Iskander launchers overnight. Several divisions were active. Previously, there were periods of about 35-40 minutes between ballistic waves. This time was needed for missile reloads. And just as much for us. And so today, some bigwig decided to reduce the timing to overwhelm air defense as much as possible. One Iskander launcher fires two missiles with a one-minute timing. There is also a gap between machines in the division. And today everything was standard, except for the half-hour break for reloading. Ballistic waves were formed as accurately as possible, so more than 10 launchers were used, meaning a whole missile brigade was active overnight. This implies they’re not afraid of being hit by our drones, as happened with the Zircon launchers in Crimea. Carelessness also plays to our favor 😉.

Another point, today’s strikes were clustered too closely on historical sites. There were many today (Lavra, Dovzhenko Film Studio, and others), and they were definitely not random. It seems that someone in the headquarters decided to burn everything possible, something that surely won’t fall into anyone’s hands. “Let it burn in hell. Not for anyone,” something like that. Let’s watch the next attack to see which objects will be targeted.

Lastly, why was the attack from Sunday to Monday, although preparation was on Friday, even using Oreshnik? There is also a sacred, old-fashioned reason. Because one elder across the ocean had a birthday on Sunday, an anniversary – 80 years old. They couldn’t launch combined attacks before such a celebration. So they postponed it to Sunday night to avoid unnecessary questions. In 2022, the bigwig postponed the war for two days because of the Olympics (hence, there was no beautiful date of 22.02.22, if anyone didn’t know), yesterday – waited for Donnie’s birthday. Everything in their international politics is stable…

P. S. Someone asked me separately why there were no Kinzhal and cruise Iskander missiles in the attack. So I’ll respond to that immediately. Because Kinzhals (due to the engine resource of the MiG-31K) have recently been launched rarely but precisely to hunt our aviation at airports.

And there were no cruise Iskanders because it confirms the theory of an entire missile brigade’s operation – all launchers were loaded with ballistic missiles. The launcher is the same for these Iskanders. There weren’t enough launchers for the cruise ones.

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