Ukraine will receive 90 billion euros from the European Union. This is a fact, and it is good. But there is another fact, about which much less is spoken, and I do not like it.
Orban and Fico blocked this loan. The formal reason — Kyiv is not sufficiently interested in repairing the Druzhba oil pipeline. In other words, two pro-Russian premiers straightforwardly said: first, fix the route for Russian oil, then you’ll get the money. And Kyiv agreed. And Brussels agreed. And the money was unblocked.
Here is what really happened: Russia bombed “Druzhba,” Hungary and Slovakia used it as leverage, Ukraine was forced to repair the Russian transit route — and only after that was it given a loan to fight Russia. A neat scheme, no doubt.
And note, the Hungarian prime minister, who will be leaving his post in a few weeks, did not even make claims against Moscow for bombing the supply route of his own oil. Not a word. Because the issue is not the oil — the issue is that Ukraine remains a transit country.
Trump, by the way, supported Orban on this issue, claiming that there are simply no alternative routes for Hungary. This is not true — there is a route through Croatia. But when did that stop Trump from convenient assertions?
Now the main question is — what next?
We find ourselves in a vicious circle. Our transit status provides us with money from the West because the West is forced to compensate for Hungary and Slovakia buying Russian oil and thereby prolonging the war. But the same money we receive is partially offset by Russia earning on the transit through our territory and continuing to fight. So the West is financing both our defense and part of Putin’s war machine simultaneously. And this will continue in 2026, and 2027, and 2028 — until this structure changes.
Can Ukraine refuse transit? Yes, it can. But for that, both Hungary and Slovakia must refuse Russian oil. And they do not intend to. At least not in the near future.
There is another scenario. If the energy crisis in the world deepens — and it will deepen if the situation in the Middle East does not calm down — Russia’s significance as an oil exporter will increase every month. And then Ukraine will be offered to increase transit capabilities in exchange for new loans. And we will again be faced with the same choice. And again, together with the West, we will be, like a squirrel, spinning in the same wheel.
Collage: engage.org.ua
