Information on the current losses of the Russian Federation due to sanctions as of 21.04.2026.
1. Russia has started selling off its gold and foreign exchange reserves to close budget gaps, indicating increasing financial pressure on the economy.
– Since the beginning of 2026, the Bank of Russia has sold nearly 22 tons of gold in an attempt to offset the budget deficit, which has already reached 4.6 trillion rubles by the end of March.
– The country’s gold and foreign exchange reserves are decreasing: as of April 1, the amount of gold reduced to 74.1 million troy ounces. Also, activity in the domestic precious metals market sharply increased: the volume of gold transactions on the Moscow Exchange in March jumped more than 3.5 times — to 42.6 tons.
– If the trend continues, Russia risks quickly exhausting its financial capabilities to cover the deficit without additional debt growth or even harsher economic pressure.
– This enhances the overall instability of the budget and narrows room for maneuver in the conditions of a protracted war and sanctions pressure.
2. Russia is increasingly losing profitability in its gas exports, forced to sell the resource to China at a significant discount.
– According to internal forecasts of the RF government, the price of Russian gas for China in 2026 will average $258.8 per thousand cubic meters — more than 38% cheaper than even the small number of remaining European buyers pay.
– The price gap will persist for years: by 2029 it will still exceed 27%. This means that the “pivot to the East” does not compensate for the loss of the European market, but rather entrenches a less profitable export model.
– Despite being a key buyer, China provides Russia with a significantly lower margin than Europe used to. Although supplies to China are increasing, they do not cover the scale of the decline. The “Power of Siberia” pipeline has already reached 38 billion cubic meters in 2025, and by 2029 the volumes may increase to 52.5 billion.
– Meanwhile, exports to Europe are reduced to 32 billion cubic meters per year in 2028–2029 — compared to about 200 billion before the full-scale war.
– Russia finds itself in a situation where it is forced to increase sales volumes at lower prices, losing revenues and increasing dependency on a single market.
3. The share of oil and gas in the Russian economy has sharply decreased to its lowest in recent years, indicating not diversification, but degradation of a key sector.
– According to statistics, in 2025, the contribution of the oil and gas industry to GDP was only 13%, which is 3 percentage points less than the previous year and the lowest since the beginning of such calculations.
– The decline continued throughout the year: from 15.5% in the first quarter to 11.6% in the fourth, indicating a systemic weakening of the industry. For comparison, during periods of high energy prices, this figure exceeded 20%, and even during the pandemic remained higher than the current level.
– The financial results of the industry sharply deteriorated: the turnover of oil and gas companies decreased by 16.7% to 19.9 trillion rubles, and profit collapsed nearly threefold, by 63.9%, to 1.9 trillion. At the same time, less than half of the companies remained profitable — only 49.1% compared to more than 60% a year earlier.
– This directly hit the budget: oil and gas revenues had to be revised during the year, reducing them by 2.6 trillion rubles. By the end of the year, they fell by 23.8% to 8.5 trillion rubles, and their share in budget revenues decreased from 30.3% to 22.7%.
– Despite the formal decrease in the share of GDP, the real dependence of the economy on oil and gas remains high, as these revenues finance government spending, salaries, and a significant part of economic activity.
– The loss of industry profitability means that this whole system is starting to fail, and the budget and economy as a whole become even more vulnerable.
4. “Severstal” has refused dividends due to a decline in financial indicators.
– “Severstal” will not pay dividends for the first quarter of 2026 due to weak demand for steel and negative cash flow.
– The company’s financial results deteriorated sharply. Net profit according to IFRS in the first quarter was only 57 million rubles — 370 times less than a year ago (21.1 billion rubles). Revenue decreased by 19% year-on-year to 145.3 billion rubles, EBITDA fell by 54% to 17.94 billion rubles.
– Free cash flow became negative, amounting to -40.37 billion rubles. Sales volumes of metal products decreased by 1% to 2.63 million tonnes.
– The company explains the deterioration in indicators by weak demand in the domestic market, affecting the entire metallurgical industry in Russia.
5. Russians are massively withdrawing cash: a record 240 billion rubles in a week.
– Russians have sharply increased cash withdrawals amid mobile internet disruptions and the expected tightening of control over bank transfers.
– From April 3 to April 10, citizens withdrew 240 billion rubles from accounts — the highest figure since the beginning of the year. As a result, the total volume of cash in circulation rose to 19.85 trillion rubles.
– In total, from April 1 to April 17, about 470 billion rubles in cash entered circulation. For comparison, in all of March, this figure was 300 billion rubles. The Central Bank explained the increase in demand for cash primarily by mobile internet disruptions.
– According to surveys, citizens withdraw money as a backup in case cashless payments become inaccessible. Meanwhile, the situation is exacerbated by other factors. In 2025, banks began blocking cards more often due to the intensified fight against fraud. Additionally, after tax increases, small businesses more actively offer discounts for cash payments.
– Additional influence comes from government plans to expand control over financial transactions: The Ministry of Finance proposes granting the tax service the right to monitor card transfers and request income verification for inflows exceeding 200,000 rubles per month.
6. Russian oil tankers under sanctions use fictitious insurance.
– Part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” transports oil using forged insurance certificates. According to Ukrainian intelligence estimates, at least five tankers received insurance from Seaguard P&I, a company that essentially does not exist.
– Specifically, a certificate from this entity was issued to the tanker Paz, which is under US, EU, and UK sanctions. The company address listed in the documents in Germany turned out to be a residential building.
– Among the vessels using such documents is the tanker Deyna, which French authorities seized in March on suspicion of circumventing sanctions against Russia. Journalists could not independently verify the existence of Seaguard P&I: the company did not respond to inquiries, and the phone numbers were invalid.
– Western countries have previously imposed sanctions on hundreds of Russian tankers, attempting to limit Moscow’s revenue from oil exports. In response, such vessels increasingly use dubious schemes — changing flags, documents, and insurance coverage, which raises risks for shipping safety and the environment.
7. Russian oil shipments to India will increase in April–May amid increased demand and renewed sanctions relief from the US.
– According to traders, Washington extended the permission to purchase Russian oil already on tankers at sea: it now covers volumes loaded by April 17 and is valid until May 16. The previous deadline expired on April 11.
– The aim of this step is to contain global energy prices amid the war in the Middle East. It is expected that Russian oil supplies to India from April 20 to 27 will increase to 2.1 million barrels per day compared to 1.67 million barrels the previous week. In April, total exports could reach about 2 million barrels per day, and remain at a similar level in May.
– For comparison, in March, supplies were approximately 1.8 million barrels per day — the highest since June 2025. Easing of sanctions allowed Russia to more actively sell off volumes accumulated over the winter.
– Meanwhile, India and China have significantly increased purchases in recent weeks, leading to a reduction in Russian oil stocks on tankers.
– According to market participants, most Urals oil shipments for May delivery have already been contracted. Premiums on these volumes are $7–9 per barrel to Brent quotes when delivered to Indian ports.
8. Poland fined a luxury car seller for illegal exports to Russia.
– Polish tax authorities fined a local company 20 million zlotys (about $5.5 million) for violating EU sanctions by supplying premium cars to Russia.
– According to the agency, the company managed by Belarusian citizens operating in southeastern Poland, purchased luxury cars in Western European countries, then transferred them to Russia through Poland, Lithuania, and Belarus during 2022–2023.
– The investigation found that about 100 cars of brands such as BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Lamborghini, Porsche, and Bentley were illegally exported.
– The total value of the shipments exceeded 49 million zlotys. The Polish tax service called this case one of the largest sanction evasion schemes uncovered in the country.
