Armenia is at the epicenter of a large-scale hybrid war aimed at the final elimination of the republic’s state sovereignty. According to informed sources and data from analytical centers, Moscow has moved to implement a comprehensive “subversive plan” to intervene in the upcoming June parliamentary elections.
The goal is obvious — to overthrow the current pro-European leadership, stop Yerevan’s turn to the West, and turn the country into a powerless outpost, deprived of the ability to choose its development path.
After the failure of direct pressure attempts through the CSTO and the use of the Karabakh issue as a lever, the Kremlin changed tactics. According to information circulating in expert circles, including information about Russia’s secret plan posted on the Blankspot website, Moscow is betting on a “soft coup.” Instead of direct invasion or open threats, a “thousand cuts” strategy is being used, creating artificial chaos, discrediting state institutions, and financially supporting radical groups.
Moscow’s main tool has become the project of creating a powerful “fifth column,” which includes not only remnants of the old corrupt elite but also new “proxy figures.” A special role in this plan is played by using religious and nationalist sentiments of the citizens. Attempts to politicize the church and use the “Tavush in the Name of the Fatherland” movement are just the tip of the iceberg, coordinated from high Russian offices.
The likely plan of Moscow’s interference in the elections is built on four “pillars.”
First, media terror and disinformation. The Armenian segment of social networks is flooded with bot farms curated by structures close to the GRU and FSB. Their task is to sow panic, spread fakes about the “surrender of territories,” and discredit any attempts at integration with the EU and the USA. Telegram channels linked to Russian special services daily throw in destructive content aimed at dividing Armenian society.
Second, economic blackmail, as Moscow uses Armenia’s dependence on energy resources and logistics as a noose. Periodic “technical problems” at Upper Lars and threats to revise gas prices are direct signals to voters: “Choose pro-Russian candidates, or you will freeze and starve.” This is a classic method of a colonial empire trying to hold onto its slipping victim.
Third, reliance on financing the “pocket opposition.” Huge shadow financial flows are directed at creating and promoting new spoiler political parties. These structures have no ideology of their own; their sole task is simply to dilute the votes of independence supporters and create a parliament loyal to the Kremlin in the future.
Fourth, the classic idea of exporting instability. The subversive plan includes provoking clashes during protest actions to force the authorities to use force and then accuse them of “dictatorship” before the international community.
For the Kremlin, elections in Armenia are not just a democratic process in a neighboring country but a geopolitical battle. Losing Armenia for Russia means the final collapse of its imperial influence in the South Caucasus.
Moscow is trying to turn the Armenian parliament into its branch, which will first annul agreements with Western partners and return the country to a state of stagnation and isolation.
Opposing such a plan requires not only the political will of the leadership but also the vigilance of the entire civil society. It is necessary to create strict mechanisms for controlling the funding of political parties and limiting the influence of foreign propaganda resources.
The upcoming elections will be a maturity test: will the republic be able to break the web that Moscow carefully weaves, or will it allow itself to be dragged back into the “gray zone,” where there is no place for development, security, or dignity.
