Meetings between the President of the United States and the head of China are always given special attention, even though for many years practically nothing has happened at these meetings, and the main task of the participants is not to quarrel completely.
However, in Ukraine in recent years, every time the American and Chinese leaders meet, there is an attempt to understand whether Donald Trump (and before him Joseph Biden) can influence Xi Jinping so that he “orders” Putin to stop the war. And every time there is disappointment when it turns out that Russia’s war against Ukraine was not even among the main topics of the US-China negotiations.
Yes, of course, the USA and China have many of their own problems that can be discussed for weeks, such as Taiwan, China’s claims to the Philippines, economic issues, nuclear arms reduction, and now even “artificial intelligence”. And for each of these issues, no mutual understanding is observed—there is only a “cold peace”. And within this “cold peace”, it is even hard to imagine how the US President can practically apply the norms of the newly adopted and signed “Graham Act” against China—especially since just before the visit of the Chinese head, American and Chinese officials once again agreed on an economic truce for the coming months. So, how can the American president influence the Chinese guest and should he even touch upon the Ukrainian topic?
But even if we imagine that Trump and Xi talked about Ukraine in detail, can they agree on something real? Trump is interested in ending the war, but not in Ukraine’s disappearance. Xi is primarily interested in Russia not losing, and for this he is forced to rely on Putin’s vision of success. Trump does not wish—at least publicly—for Russia to circumvent sanctions and sell oil to China. Xi is interested in Russia selling this oil to China, and now, amid the crisis in Hormuz, this is not just a whim.
Finally, those who think that Xi can order Putin to do anything are also overestimating the capabilities of the Chinese leader. Yes, the Russian president cannot ignore his Chinese colleague’s point of view. But Russia for China is both a partner with the most significant nuclear potential, a seller of cheap oil, and—most importantly—a tool for destabilizing the West. And the Russian-Ukrainian war is part of this destabilization process. Why should China contribute to its end when the continuation of the war weakens both the West and Russia?
Therefore, serious results should not be expected from meetings of American and Chinese leaders. Not only regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war but also regarding other fundamental issues. Today, the United States and China—even if the American president and his Chinese colleague, according to Trump, have excellent personal relations—are still on different poles of the modern world. And the problems of the two main economies of the world are different. Even the personal issues of Trump and Xi Jinping are different. Trump is thinking about his party’s success in the elections and about a successor. Xi is engaged in party purges and is planning to run for a fourth term.
But can the opinion of the head of China on the Russian-Ukrainian war be changed? Yes, it can—and this was confirmed by the recent summits of the leaders of the “Global South” countries, when both Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi talked about the need to find a political solution to the conflict with Putin. But why?
Not out of excessive peace-loving sentiment. Primarily because China is not interested in the destruction of Russia’s oil refining industry and the reduction of oil production, which will inevitably occur if refineries stop. China needs Russian oil—and if Putin cannot save it, maybe he should consider ending the escalation?
Therefore, the one who can truly convince Xi is the Ukrainian soldier.
