Honestly, I don’t understand why NKEC is spreading panic: “Temporary communication and service access disruptions are possible in Ukraine.”
Sternenko, a supporter of Fedorov, fuels the panic: “Better to have Starlinks just in case.”
Back in February-March 2022, I explained why the Ukrainian Internet access system is one of the most resilient in the world, and why it is very difficult to “break.”
I am repeating it now: practically all of the more than 7,000 Ukrainian internet service providers are private organizations, which – and this is crucial – are self-organized, meaning they are not controlled by bureaucratic offices.
This means that the “state” hardly regulates Ukrainian providers – and this is a key factor in their resilience. Although the country has been trying to do this throughout its years of independence. Every year, there are attempts to invent new “rules,” introduce ridiculous “jitters,” and create levers of pressure on this business segment.
So far, these attempts to rein in the independent providers have failed. The sole achievement of the group of corrupt officials has been the creation of NKEC – the “National Commission for State Regulation in the Fields of Electronic Communications, Radio Frequency Spectrum, and Postal Services.”
A pointless organization that almost nobody needs except the “regulators” themselves. There is sense only in regulating the radio frequency spectrum; all else are contrived functions. It’s like the “Ministry of Unity” created for Chernyshov: a means to extract money from taxpayers for a gang of lazy freeloaders.
This is why it could be one of the reasons for this scare from NKEC: as if saying, we, the state regulator, know something important, but won’t tell you, so be scared. Oooo, this winter will be the scariest in history! Brrr!
An excuse for their pointless existence at the expense of unfounded scaremongering of citizens.
Or another possible reason: NKEC will place some SBU “black boxes” on the main networks to monitor all Internet traffic. In Russia, this is called SORM-2, which has been operating for a long time and successfully, making the FSB happy.
In this case, it all makes more sense: yes, there will be disruptions. But not because the Russians have bombed something, but because the political protection needs more control over the citizens of Ukraine.
However, I do not see objective reasons to stir up panic like “soon the Russians will bomb all our communications.” Because there are no objective reasons for this.
There is not a single main node or a single person in Ukraine that the entire infrastructure depends on. Our commercial infrastructure is decentralized, self-organized, and distributed.
If a stool has three legs, knocking out one will make it fall. But if a stool has a hundred or two hundred legs, knocking out one will make the stool stand just as reliably.
And the Ukrainian Internet access system is a stool with seven thousand legs.
Yes, there are large nodes, there are main channels, there are traffic exchange points, and other “bottlenecks.” But even if YR specifically targets them and even hits, it won’t bring down the entire system. There may be temporary slowdowns, reduced quality, even interruptions for several hours, but for a small part of subscribers and for a relatively short period. Most users will not notice any significant difficulties.
Just like they didn’t notice during a truly massive and targeted cyberattack on communication operators and the Internet access system in May 2022.
Therefore, my forecast is that everything will be more or less normal with Internet access.
Compared to energy facilities or military targets, data centers are not a priority target. Important, yes, but not a priority. They don’t have enough missiles and drones to strike exclusively at data centers and Internet infrastructure. It’s counterproductive, like shooting a cloud of mosquitoes with a pistol.
And a main communication line compared to a CHP is a too small target. They might accidentally damage it. But our providers can quickly fix almost everything – they have extensive and unique experience.
So I don’t understand who is spreading panic rumors and why. Although it clearly benefits someone.
