Although the war with Iran somewhat pushed Russia’s aggression against Ukraine to the background in the global media, it reminded us of important things that will matter for ending the war in our country.
The USA and Iran both presented the achieved truce as their own victory. Iran claimed it won the war against a nuclear state with the world’s strongest army, which fully accepted its terms. The US President says America “exceeded its goals,” and that “there’s almost nothing left to bomb in Iran.” And while this may seem humorous from the outside, it is actually extremely important. Because whether a society feels defeated as a result of a war determines the direction of the country’s development after the end of hostilities.
Pavlo Kazarin, who is currently serving in the Donetsk region, talks exactly about this. He was on my podcast this week. According to him, it doesn’t matter how many square kilometers of Ukrainian land remain under occupation, but whether the Ukrainian society perceives the conditions of the war’s end as a defeat.
A lost war will hit everyone painfully. Instinctively, part of the society will try to distance itself, to forget about this war and those who fought. Soldiers returning from the front line will not be seen as heroes, but as failures. The phrase “I didn’t send you there” might become one of the symbols of division among Ukrainians.
The more humiliating the “peace agreement” conditions are for Ukraine, the larger part of the society will not accept them and will be ready to continue fighting, but against internal “traitors.” A blogger who hid from mobilization will consider a soldier a traitor who “fought incorrectly,” though he could have surrendered earlier. Any soldier will perceive such a blogger as a draft dodger who hastened the defeat. Russian propaganda will amplify this division, and open pro-Russian Telegram channels will only assist in this.
This is essentially Putin’s main plan in this war. He does not need the Donetsk region. He is not fighting for territories. His goal is the destruction of all of Ukraine. But he understands that Russia lacks the resources to conquer Ukraine militarily. Instead, the Kremlin sees a chance to throw Ukraine into chaos through civil confrontation. To do this, not much is needed: it is enough to impose such terms of a peace agreement on Ukraine that will be perceived by society as a national humiliation and which it cannot withstand.
This is precisely what is implied when demands are made to surrender territories without a fight, abandon the language, disarm the army – and so on, according to a list formed in the Kremlin. In fact, the key dispute regarding the peace agreement is not about who will control Kramatorsk. The main question is whether it will be recorded that Ukraine lost the war.
The position voiced by President Zelensky on freezing the war along the front line is not an obvious victory. But along with other factors (European integration, a strong army, and security guarantees), this theoretically may be enough for the society not to feel defeated.
However, for this, the Ukrainian government must do a lot. Preventing societal division, uniting Ukrainians around common values, finding understanding between different groups – all of this is critically important for Ukraine’s survival in the conditions of this war. A war that Ukraine cannot afford to lose.
Illustration: RBC-Ukraine
