The strategic stalemate in the war against Ukraine forces Putin to accelerate preparations for an invasion of a NATO country. This conclusion can be drawn from US intelligence data quoted by the WSJ.
In a situation where the front line is constantly shifting, it may seem that there is no stalemate. But that’s not the case.
I repeat once again: Putin’s strategic goals are to destroy all of independent Ukraine. For this, he planned the establishment of a pro-Russian government here, through which he could transform our country into an enlarged analogue of the “DNR” or (if lucky) Lukashenko’s Belarus.
The realization of such goals is possible in two ways.
The first — if, after a swift military campaign, the Ukrainian government itself steps down. The same “Kyiv in three days” plan, the failure of which became apparent in the first weeks of March 2022.
The second — a military campaign with the occupation of all of Ukraine, including the western regions. Ukraine must not remain even within minimal borders, as otherwise this will not solve Putin’s problem. It would be a country inhabited by millions who hate Russia, remember the dead, and carry their desire for revenge through generations.
Since Russia’s existing forces and resources cannot occupy such a large country as Ukraine, it is believed that the war is in a strategic stalemate.
There are potentially only two exits from the strategic stalemate: escalation or de-escalation. That is, large-scale mobilization or serious peace negotiations.
However, as has been said many times, mobilization alone cannot significantly change the situation on the front line. A technological breakthrough is required for this, without which mobilization will only increase the scale of losses. I described this in more detail last week, analyzing the prospects of Russian mobilization.
Regarding peace negotiations, I have written many times. Putin outlined his stance on them last week by saying: “if the SVO ends, what then will we do?”
Therefore, everyone is now looking for new ideas: Ukraine and the whole world are thinking about what to offer Putin to make him stop; and Putin is pondering what methods of escalating the war, which he hasn’t yet employed, might be.
According to the WSJ, US military intelligence believes that a Russian attack on a NATO country is possible as early as this fall. And although they still consider the probability of a scenario involving an invasion and occupation of part of a NATO country to be low, this probability is constantly growing. American intelligence believes that Putin may become more dangerous as he increasingly realizes that continuing the war does not bring him closer to his goals.
In other words, seeking new ways to escalate the war to break out of the strategic stalemate, Putin may resort to a military operation against NATO with the aim of splitting the Alliance and undermining unity in support of Ukraine. And American military intelligence believes that this could literally happen this fall.
It is worth recalling here that US military intelligence was among the first to warn about the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022 and quite accurately described the main directions of movement of Russian troops. At that time, these forecasts seemed exaggerated and overly alarming to many. Today, it is much harder to ignore such warnings.
Collage: Slovo i Dilo
