Information on the current losses of the Russian Federation due to sanctions as of March 30, 2026.
1. The Russian government has acknowledged that the economic growth forecast of 1.3% for this year may be unattainable.
– It is expected that in April, the official GDP forecast will be lowered following weak early-year results. Notably, in January, Russia’s GDP shrank year-on-year for the first time in almost three years — by 2.1% compared to January 2025.
– Negative dynamics are also observed in the industry: in January–February, production volumes were 0.8% lower than a year ago. Weak indicators were recorded earlier as well. By the end of 2025, the Russian economy grew by only 1%, while investments in fixed capital declined by 2.3%.
– Most current forecasts also indicate near-stagnation dynamics. The growth estimate for the economy this year is between 0.5% and 1.5%, with consensus forecasts around 1%. Some estimates are even lower — 0.9% and 0.8%.
– At the same time, economic activity in the first quarter is already forming weaker than previous expectations.
2. The financial condition of Russia’s rail monopoly has sharply deteriorated: RZD’s profit in 2025 fell 22 times — from 50.7 billion to 2.2 billion rubles.
– The company’s freight volumes have dropped to a 16-year low of 1.1 billion tons. To avoid losses, RZD sharply cut expenses. The investment program was reduced by 40% — to 890 billion rubles compared to 1.5 trillion a year earlier.
– The company raised an additional 800 billion rubles in debt, bringing the total debt level to a record 3.8 trillion rubles. Additional pressure is created by the high key rate — debt servicing costs have increased to 534.1 billion rubles.
– The company is moving to strict optimization: some employees have already been transitioned to part-time, and from 2026, about 15% of the central staff is planned to be reduced.
– The combination of these factors indicates a systemic crisis: the decline in transportation, debt burden, and reduction in investments undermine the stability of a key infrastructure company, which traditionally reflects the state of the entire Russian economy.
3. One of Russia’s largest clothing retailers, O’STIN, is sharply downsizing its business amid falling profitability.
– By the end of 2025, the company closed 62 stores — 2.6 times more than the previous year, and laid off about 15% of the staff. The financial report confirms the decline: revenue decreased by 13% to 49.9 billion rubles, and net profit fell 1.6 times to 887.4 million rubles.
– The company, which previously actively expanded its network and had about 700 retail points in several countries, is now forced to optimize costs due to reduced profitability. According to sources, the process of scaling down the network will continue in 2026.
– The situation reflects a broader trend in the Russian market: declining household incomes and changing consumer behavior are hitting the mass-market segment, which was the core of the company’s business. As a result, even major players have to close stores, reduce staff, and shift to a savings mode.
4. The Russian banking sector shows worsening financial results: in February, over 60% of banks reported a decrease in income or losses, compared to 47% a year ago.
– The problems hit small and medium banks the hardest, as well as institutions with foreign participation. The main reasons are the reduction in the key interest rate, which pressures interest income, and the increase in costs for forming reserves for credit risks.
– As a result, weaker players lose profitability and financial stability, while large banks remain relatively stable and effectively support the sector.
– According to forecasts, the overall net profitability of the banking system in 2026 may remain at last year’s level or slightly increase, but this result will be almost exclusively ensured by the largest players.
– Thus, an imbalance is growing in the sector: large banks consolidate their positions, while small and medium ones are increasingly entering the risk zone.
5. The USA is effectively easing its approach to the energy blockade of Cuba and allowing a Russian oil tanker to pass.
– President Donald Trump stated that he does not object to any country, including Russia, supplying oil to Cuba. This position emerged as a Russian tanker carrying a shipment of crude oil, critically important for the Cuban economy, approached the island.
– According to vessel monitoring data, a tanker from Russia’s “shadow fleet” is heading to a Cuban port with a cargo of approximately 650–730 thousand barrels of oil. The supply could provide the country with resources for several weeks or even up to a month, given the strict fuel rationing.
– The energy situation in Cuba sharply deteriorated after the U.S. halted Venezuelan oil shipments and other suppliers, including Mexico, also stopped exports. As a result, the country has not received tankers for several months, leading to a gasoline shortage and widespread power outages.
– Despite the harsh rhetoric towards the Cuban government, Trump explicitly stated that the humanitarian needs of the population are more important, and he allowed energy supplies, even if it involves Russian participation.
– The context of the decision is broader: due to the war in the Middle East, global oil supply chains are disrupted, forcing the U.S. to partially relax the sanctions regime to avoid an even greater shortage in the global market.
– Ultimately, the situation demonstrates how the geopolitical crisis forces Washington to approach sanctions more flexibly, while Russia uses the moment to expand its influence, particularly in regions under energy pressure.
6. In the European Union, scenarios are being discussed in the event of another victory by the Hungarian Prime Minister, as concerns about his influence on decision-making in the bloc are growing.
– EU countries are considering several options to limit the possibility of blocking key decisions. Among them are changes in voting procedures that would allow bypassing the veto rights of individual states, increasing financial pressure by restricting access to EU funds, and in extreme cases, discussing mechanisms for effectively excluding the country from participating in certain processes or even theoretical exclusion from the union.
– There is an emphasis on the link between funding and adherence to the principles of the rule of law. In Brussels, it is becoming increasingly clear that access to budgetary resources may be limited for governments that violate basic democratic standards.
– According to diplomats, dissatisfaction in the EU has significantly increased after blocking decisions regarding support for Ukraine, which many perceived as crossing a “red line.” In the event of the current government’s re-election, Brussels’ approach may become significantly stricter.
– At the same time, there is no concrete action plan yet — EU countries are only forming a set of tools that would reduce internal risks to the functioning of the union.
7. The United Kingdom has tightened control over compliance with sanctions against Russia: Apple’s subsidiary was fined for violating restrictions.
– This concerns Apple Distribution International Limited, which the British authorities have fined £390,000 (approximately $516,000). The reason is two payments made in 2022 to a sanctioned individual without obtaining the necessary permit.
– The government emphasizes that even indirect financial operations with sanctioned entities require a special license, and its absence is considered a violation of the sanctions regime.
– This case demonstrates that Western regulators are closely monitoring the activities of large international corporations and are ready to impose fines even for relatively small transaction amounts if they are related to Russia.
– The increased control indicates London’s intention to strictly enforce the sanctions and minimize any financial flows that may circumvent the established restrictions.
8. The Philippines is forced to urgently diversify its energy supply: the country’s only oil refinery, Petron, purchased 2.48 million barrels of Russian oil and does not rule out further purchases if the war around Iran drags on.
– The purchase was made “solely out of extreme necessity,” as traditional supplies from the Middle East were threatened. Due to escalating tensions in the region, two shipments of oil, each 2 million barrels, were unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and were canceled due to increased risks also in the Red Sea.
– The volume of Russian oil obtained is expected to meet the country’s internal needs at least until June. As of the end of March, the Philippines had about 45 days of reserves, prompting the authorities to declare an energy emergency.
– Against this backdrop, Manila is actively seeking alternatives and negotiating fuel supplies with Japan, China, South Korea, and India. Simultaneously, agreements are being made for stable coal supplies, which provide more than half of the country’s energy generation. The situation demonstrates how the war in the Middle East is disrupting traditional logistics chains and forcing even US allies to turn to Russian oil.
– For Moscow, this creates new sales opportunities in Asia, while for importers, energy security becomes more important than political risks.
9. In France, the captain of a tanker from Russia’s “shadow fleet” was sentenced.
– The Chinese captain of the vessel Boracay received a one-year prison sentence and a €150,000 fine for refusing to follow French military orders during an inspection off the coast of Brittany.
– According to the investigation, the tanker was transporting Russian oil to India, was under EU sanctions, and before the inspection, raised a fake Benin flag.
– The French side stated that the captain’s actions forced the military to perform a dangerous maneuver, which could have led to an accident.
– The vessel has since been renamed “Phoenix” and sails under the Russian flag.
