Let’s mark and conspiratorially comprehend the main milestones until mid-January. This will help navigate the stream of events.
1. The first storyline is natural-climatic, partly described earlier with adjustments for El Niño.
2. The second storyline is pan-European. The main theme is the EU budget for 2028-2034.
The overall canvas: donor countries (Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, Sweden, Finland) demand to cut expenses (about 2 trillion euros) by approximately 400 billion, although even after this, the budget will be significantly larger than the current one. So far, this is a discussion.
Main message: support innovative sectors and defense, cut subsidies for agriculture and projects under the “cohesion policy,” which are predominantly financed from the common pot in Central and Eastern European countries, and the Balkans. Among those affected will be Poland, the Baltic countries, Romania, Bulgaria. But not only.
For example, the largest recipient of direct subsidies for farmers is France. Net recipients of agricultural money (consuming more than they contribute to agricultural funds) are Spain and Greece. Italy will be affected by cuts in infrastructure spending.
The day before yesterday, intermediate elections were held in France for the Senate (the upper house of parliament) – electing half of its members. The elections are not nationwide; mainly representatives of local self-government vote. Marine Le Pen’s associates gathered enough mandates for the first time to form a group. Control over the Senate will still be in the hands of moderate forces with a reasonable position regarding support for Ukraine, but the results are in the trend of the growth of Le Pen’s “National Rally.”
Tendencies in Germany were widely discussed.
The discussion about the EU budget will undoubtedly be used by unfriendly forces in different countries to discredit the idea of helping Ukraine.
October 15–16, 2026 – European Council meeting.
November 13, 2026 – informal meeting of EU leaders.
December 17–18, 2026 — the final European Council meeting in 2026, where financial battles should be concluded. Or not.
Our argument for the need to strengthen Europe’s defense through investments in Ukraine will overlap with this discussion. And the Russians will stir up Euroscepticism in general and negativity towards Ukraine, including through direct intimidation of Europeans with war and terrorism.
October 24 – EU summit with the Gulf states. Their own troubles there.
And October 29-30 – with Canada. The very fact of which will infuriate Trump amid talks of an Association and outlines of a new partnership between Ottawa and Europe.
Where else are there points of effort?
3. The third storyline is Balkan. The Balkans are Moscow’s traditional playground. Euroscepticism is one of the main narratives.
October 4: General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
October 25: Early parliamentary elections in Serbia and presidential elections in Bulgaria (second round on November 1).
In Bulgaria, Iliyana Yotova is likely to become president, formally declaring a pro-European course but extensively using rhetoric de facto in favor of Russia, including by limiting aid to Ukraine.
Also looming on the horizon are the “regular” snap parliamentary elections in Kosovo. The parliament elected in the summer has still not been able to elect a new president, with the outgoing one’s term having expired back in April. The Constitutional Court ruled on September 23 that the deadline is October 6; otherwise, new elections will be at the end of the year. It may slightly stir things up.
4. The fourth plot – Middle Eastern.
The pivotal event here is the Knesset elections in Israel (October 27). The intensity of passions is extreme, due to exclusively internal reasons.
But there is also an extensive external aspect, turning the voting in a small country into a semi-global event.
One branch is the Persian Gulf war, the Houthis, and all that (details below). The second is the public backdrop outside Israel.
The buzz around the film “NAZA” is prominent. On the other hand, on the eve of October 7, there are many voices suggesting that Israel should show Europeans videos of Hamas atrocities. This is partly due to the resonance of two episodes of the series “Fauda,” which was released in the spring but widely circulated in September. So everything is highly visualized and sparking.
Against this backdrop, French President Emmanuel Macron had an unsuccessful performance at the UN. One of his remarks could be interpreted as saying, well, with Gaza everything is difficult, but Hamas shouldn’t be excessively demonized on the West Bank. However, there was a terrorist attack before the address, and afterward, a car rammed the son of Israel’s ambassador to the US, who was serving at a checkpoint. This is in addition to constant clashes between settlers and Palestinians.
In the same context, the government of Giorgia Meloni declared a number of measures in the field of education, which are de facto intended to regulate migrant behavior, most of whom are Muslims.
Besides the ban on wearing a niqab and burqa in schools (rarely encountered), they plan to set a limit: no more than 30% of children in a class should have poor Italian language skills. Plus, they want to require the migrant students’ parents or children born in Italy from national communities to learn Italian.
Opponents of Meloni see this as pure populism ahead of the elections, as it’s unclear how to implement it. But the vector of rhetoric is telling.
On this same background, they note the victory of the left in Berlin led by Elif Eralp, who has already been dubbed the “German Mamdani” and warned of a surge in anti-Semitism.
Thus, a picture forms: there is no money, everything is getting more expensive, Russians are terrorizing, Islamists are creeping up, and Ukrainians want something. And this is circulating among cognitively vulnerable audiences.
The nuance is that the idea has taken hold in many places: Ukrainians are almost the only ones who can fight the Russians and are certainly not allies of the Islamists. Thus, Ukraine is part of the solution, not the problem. This idea needs cultivation.
The elections in Israel will flow into a battle for the premiership and government. In narrow circles, bets are already being placed: where will it flare up again as an accompanying element – in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, or will Iran explode?
5. The fifth plot – American.
There are already megatons of interpretations about the November 3 elections. In the background, conspiracy theories are being added about Donald Trump’s tactics after 2 years of his term (transfer of power to Vance, pardons, etc.).
For now, we have a date in early November and December 14-15, when the G20 summit will take place, to which Putin is officially invited.
Essentially, this is the last date among key events that were supposed to embellish Trump’s triumphant year (abduction of Maduro, 80th birthday, 250th anniversary of the USA, the World Cup, etc.). But the USA is bogged down in the situation with Iran, which spoils everything and weakens its position in dialogue with China.
The entire range of consequences of this war is still unclear. It is customary for us to interpret it as Trump’s “defeat.” And in the short term, it does look like that. But what it will lead to in the medium-term perspective is a debatable question.
The blockade of Iran deals a serious blow to its economy. If we exclude the de facto lost elections on November 3, in the prospect of several months, Trump or his successor may have a result in Iran. If Washington doesn’t make another mistake somewhere. Plus, amidst the agitation in the Persian Gulf, American oilmen are quietly getting richer. They are also gradually unpacking Venezuela, quietly working in Guyana. These subtleties elude us.
Another storyline fits here that is beyond our horizon.
October 4 – elections for governors, parliament, and president of Brazil (second round on October 25). Currently, President Lula da Silva and his opponent Flavio Bolsonaro (son of former President Jair Bolsonaro) are nearly tied. The nuance is that a significant part of Brazil’s political class may be renewed on the same day. How – is not entirely clear. The course of governors, parliament, and president may not coincide.
This concerns us because Brazil is a BRICS member – under Lula, it maintained neutrality and did not impose sanctions against Russia. Dilma Rousseff is another “Schröder” on the Kremlin’s payroll. Brazil extensively bought diesel from Russia. However, Ukraine helped pressure the Russians, and the US moved into the niche. In view of this, Trump’s rhetoric about unfortunate Russian refineries is mockery towards Putin. Because the US is now the world’s leading diesel exporter.
Bolsonaro is considered to be conditionally pro-American. Washington openly declares a position to oust outsiders from the Western Hemisphere. In particular, it wants to push China and the Russians. Brazil is a super valuable state in this regard.
Cuba, Nicaragua, and a couple of other small issues remain.
In the end, we see that the US is moving in the finest details within the framework of the updated “Monroe Doctrine.” For this, Trump is even ready to troll Britain with the Falkland Islands.
Associated line: November 4-5 in Madrid will host the Ibero-American summit. Initially, this involves 22 Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking countries of Europe and America. This year, new associate observers will appear: Turkey, Angola, and India.
Spain wants to boost its international position in light of recent crises. Overall – it will be a test of the format’s viability, the sign of which will be the attendance of country leaders. The previous summit in Ecuador was extremely vague.
The shadow of Trump and the US as a whole will be invisibly present. The clinch between Trump and Spain is well-known. Trump has temporarily backed off from Mexico, but it’s not over yet. Brazil will have its own atmosphere. Venezuela, Cuba – whichever country you take, there are nuances with Washington.
Overall, what we consider a defeat may actually turn out to be a peripheral fire, whose impact is unclear and could harm multiple parties.
The potential blocking of the Red Sea is primarily a blow to China-Europe trade. This is why many were alarmed at the news that a Chinese company received permission for regular container ship routes via the “Northern Sea Route” over the summer. This raises the expectation of fierce Aleutian pirates appearing in the Bering Strait.
Here, we shift our focus to where the center of gravity of the global economy and politics has already moved – the Pacific region.
6. Plot six – Chinese.
In China, from October 26-29, the 5th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) – a key political event in the Chinese party system, will conclude and determine the course for the next period.
This is an important stage, as the 21st CPC Congress will be held next year, where Xi Jinping is expected to extend himself for a 4th term. Significant updates to the party leadership are anticipated. For the Chinese leader, a positive agenda is crucial.
Previously, 2027 was set as the target year for the full modernization of the People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA), which was considered connected to solving the “Taiwan issue.”
However, in the last year (whether as an act of “fog of war” or reflecting real plans – this is debatable) a narrative is building around “peaceful reunification” within the framework of a political process. One objective reason is the clear unpreparedness of the PLA for a forceful solution.
Xi Jinping is forced to accelerate military modernization against a backdrop of verbal de-escalation and political gestures (like the visit of the Kuomintang leader).
In any case, next year Emperor Xi must present some result. So far, the most spectacular aspects are dancing anthropomorphic robots and space automotive. But that’s not enough.
An important narrative for Xi is the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18-19. A visit from Trump is not ruled out (for now), and Putin plans to attend (for now). Russians are publicly considering the possibility of a trilateral meeting; however, neither China nor the USA show enthusiasm for this. Ahead of the summit, there will be an APEC business leaders’ summit.
The entire week until then (November 11-18) will see activities in the Philippines as part of the ASEAN leaders’ summit and related events.
The Philippines will chair in 2026 and have ambitions to adopt a legally binding code of conduct in the South China Sea by the end of its term. However, the likelihood of this has sharply decreased due to a series of recent escalations. One of the sparks is China’s expansion in the disputed zone.
This summer, the president of the Philippines met with Putin and ritually invited him to the summit. This year marks the 35th anniversary of Russia’s relations with ASEAN, with an anniversary summit held in Kazan, and Sergey Lavrov traveled to the foreign ministers’ meeting in Manila, where he briefly argued with Marco Rubio.
There is no information regarding Putin’s intentions to go to Manila, and he doesn’t have much reason to be there. However, what the configuration will be by mid-November is unknown. Even the trip to Shenzhen is conditioned by the “situation in Russia,” creating a pre-emptive justification in case of a refusal to attend.
Thus, November is not only about the US elections, but also a significant movement in Asia. The backdrop of this movement is regional and global security. But the string that particularly vibrates is “superintelligence.”
Postponing the US-China agreements to January is a signal that both parties view the remaining three months as a sort of round where points will be counted for decisions under new conditions. Meanwhile, the focus should be on issues of power.
Seventh storyline – AI.
Currently, two interest groups have formed: the pro-American Pax Silica and the pro-Chinese WAICO.
Simply put: Americans are more focused on supply chains for critical materials and “hardware,” while China plays the management and technology access card, formally declaring a more open approach.
There are countries (Kazakhstan, Singapore…) trying to participate in both communities. The EU is also trying to maneuver, which is de facto losing the AI race but wants to assert some agency.
The AI context will definitely be discussed in Shenzhen and Miami (G20).
Viewed through this lens, Trump hasn’t won anything in this area yet, but hasn’t lost globally either. He aggressively seeks moves in the interests of American tech giants, while China and Europe defend themselves.
It’s likely that the US will encourage countries to decide on participating in only one of the coalitions. In this context, Brazil’s position after the elections is interesting, as Brazil is a co-founder of WAICO.
AI is a global dimension. In this context, there is its own separate stream of events.
One of them is the election of the new UN Secretary-General (to take office on January 1) and shifts in UN bureaucracy. The UN remains a significant platform, and conflicting forces will utilize it.
The Infrastructure Forum of the OECD will be held in Paris on November 5-6, where many plot lines are intertwined: from the India-Middle East-Europe transport corridor conceptualized by the Indians during their G20 presidency, to the EU budget and discussions on infrastructure sustainability (including digital) amid climate, political, and other upheavals.
From November 9 to 20, the COP31 events (“Conference of the Parties”) will take place in Antalya – the highest governing body of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted in 1992. Turkey presides, and Erdogan will score several international points. The leaders’ summit is on November 11-12.
Despite Trump’s fierce skepticism about the entire climate movement, the agenda remains. There are objective problems and questions. Here, too, there will be a line on AI, as “superintelligence” has given scientists enormous data processing capabilities, yet everyone complains about a deficit of computing power.
A month before all this, from October 12-18, the IMF and World Bank annual meeting will be held in Bangkok. Masons and reptilians will discuss global finances.
Minor events, like the CIS heads of state summit (October 9 in Turkmenistan), feel awkward to mention. But they cannot be ignored. The incident with the lifting of EU sanctions on Alisher Usmanov through a multi-step maneuver involving Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan proves the existence of close relationships that we often fail to grasp…
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In general, even keeping the main storylines and events in mind is labor-intensive. Adding them into a system of connections, defining Ukraine’s place and vectors of influence on our country’s fate, is even more challenging.
Unfortunately, it is clear that we are falling out of developmental processes. Ukraine is sliding into the role of a source of food, weapons, and soldiers.
It sounds bad, but these are our signs visible on a global level. And actually, that’s quite a lot.
Because any country or political entity, facing the need to determine its stance on Russian aggression against Ukraine, inevitably considers possible consequences for its internal situation and global narratives. And it finds that Ukraine indeed has “cards.”
The task: without particular illusions, to navigate pragmatically through this web, creating, developing, and protecting Ukrainian interests. This is extremely difficult, as the environment is frightfully competitive.
Currently, the common denominator for many countries is to ease the passage through winter, which will be challenging for many even without the war, as risks are mounting. In this lies a small chance to push the war onto the path of a freeze, either fully (ceasefire) or partially (sectoral truce). We’ll see how it unfolds from there.
