The network is filled with mutually exclusive forecasts.
Some claim that from March 1, we will see a ceasefire regime. I’m all for it! Sooner is better!
Others exaggerate, saying where there’s a 12-year war, there’s also a 15-year war. Another three years.
Where’s the truth? Everywhere.
We should remain calm about such schizophrenia. When it comes to truly important matters, it always involves a game of nerves and a battle of approaches. Besides, there are scammers everywhere. Therefore, we focus on high international standards of ambiguity and actions, while keeping specifics in mind.
A fresh example.
1. Recently, during an uplifting speech in Munich, comrade Macron outlined the contours of a strategically autonomous Europe in defense matters. He mentioned several important projects, among them the production of a Franco-German-Spanish next-generation aviation platform Future Combat Air System (FCAS).
According to the legend, by 2040 this platform should replace the Eurofighter and the French Rafale. And if scaled up, it could push aside American aircraft. As they say, first and foremost, it’s beautiful.
2. Just a few days later, Macron is heading to India for an AI summit. Prior to the meeting, the French and Indian defense ministers meet, and the Indian security council decides to… purchase another 114 Rafale machines from France. And Macron, without batting an eyelid, tells the Indians: if you look at 2040-2050, you’ll need a lot of planes! So Rafale is the topic!
Moreover, the discussion is about joint production in India with increased localization (which the Indians tried to discuss with Moscow regarding the Su-57E, but progress there is so-so, with many risks). Plus, France is considering the possibility of selling India three more submarines (the Indians already have six French submarines).
Considering the timing and discussions about FCAS, the logic holds if the French sell part of the existing Rafale to India, replacing them with new platforms. Creating a new European platform and making new aircraft for India might be slightly tense. But Macron will be in a different position in a little over a year. Now he needs to sell Rafale.
3. Here come the Germans on the scene.
The Bolshevik publication Reuters, citing anonymous sources, reports that the Germans have thought about buying more F35s from the USA. In 2022, Germany ordered 35 such aircraft, with deliveries starting this year. The reason for considering a new batch is allegedly the vague prospects of FCAS.
Because France and Germany supposedly have different views on this platform. Merz even said that theoretically, we could be talking about two different aircraft, which sounds strange. Plus, in professional circles, there is an ongoing discussion about whether it’s necessary to develop a hyper-expensive new manned aircraft when everything is leaning towards UAVs. You could invest a ton of money, lose time, and then not have anyone to sell this expensive toy to.
German media, citing their anonymous government sources, vigorously denied insinuations about additional aviation purchases from the US.
In Munich, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that the fate of FCAS would be decided in the coming weeks. But even if this project is shelved, part of the ideas (e.g., a swarm of manned and unmanned aviation) and cooperation with France on other issues will be preserved.
However, the insinuators remind that supposedly in October 2025, Pistorius pondered whether to buy another 15 F35s? In case there’s no progress with the FCAS story. Just as a reserve. But since then, the US national security strategy has been published, and talking about cooperation (“dependence”) with America became unfashionable (for a while).
This doesn’t mean that FCAS is condemned. It means that the high contracting parties are negotiating. The French do not want to give up their advantages, while the Germans suspect they are being tricked into spending money. Much will still be said; it’s a life matter.
4. What is the specificity for us?
In one day, SBS struck three Russian “Tor” SAM systems in the Zaporizhzhia region.
These are growing successes of middle-strike.
These are facts that will determine – whether it’s March 1 or another three years.
On the cover: Hit “Tor” SAM. Illustrative photo: video screenshot Unmanned Systems Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
