Information on the current losses of the Russian Federation due to sanctions as of 24.10.2026.
1. Ukraine continues to strike enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex, destroying production capacities and components needed for missile armament production.
– On October 23, the “Proton” plant in Orel was hit by a missile strike. The enterprise manufactures optoelectronic equipment and electronic components for the Russian military-industrial complex. Its products are used in the production of S-71 “Cover” cruise missiles, “Iskander-M” ballistic missiles, and “Pantsir-S1” air defense systems.
– According to released footage, the strike caused at least one production assembly building of the plant to suffer critical damage: the upper floors, roof, and facade collapsed. This could have disabled the technological lines in the affected shop.
– On October 24, there were reports of an attack on the “Togliattikauchuk” chemical plant in Tolyatti, Samara region. The enterprise produces synthetic rubbers and other chemical products. Details of the aftermath of the attack are being clarified.
2. Russian “Novatek” is financing an American LNG project in Alaska despite US sanctions.
– The Russian gas company “Novatek,” which is under American sanctions, is financing the construction of a liquefied natural gas terminal in Alaska and effectively controls the implementation of the project.
– The Polar Train LNG project was launched in March as part of the Trump administration’s plans to expand American energy exports to Asia. The company planned to use some equipment from the unfinished Russian “Arctic LNG-2” terminal, which is also under US sanctions, and move it to Alaska.
– Polar Train approached American authorities to request permission to negotiate with “Novatek,” but has not yet received approval. Nevertheless, according to former CEO of the American project Joel Riddle, the Russian company has already financed and managed its operations.
– During discussions between Washington and Moscow, an option was considered in which “Novatek” would help build the terminal in Alaska in exchange for lifting sanctions against “Arctic LNG-2.”
3. Russian ESPO oil for China has risen to record levels due to supply disruptions from the Middle East.
– Russian sellers are offering China ESPO Blend oil with record premiums over the Brent benchmark—more than $25 per barrel, with some offers exceeding $30.
– The price increase is related to high demand, rising maritime transport costs due to the war with Iran, and uncertainty about oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Russian suppliers are trying to capitalize on disruptions in the Middle Eastern market by raising prices for Chinese buyers. However, excessive premiums may deter some buyers.
– According to traders, Chinese refineries are willing to pay about $20 per barrel over Brent for ESPO, but higher prices could make processing unprofitable. A recent deal with a major independent Chinese refinery involved a premium of $23–$26 per barrel, while smaller refineries under such conditions risk incurring losses.
– Rising transportation costs are also pushing sellers to raise prices. At the same time, some batches of Russian oil offered for delivery in November and December remain unsold.
4. Russia transferred military developments to China for submarines, aviation, and landing control systems.
– Russian defense enterprises transferred technologies and technical documentation to China for the development of naval forces, aviation, and landing systems. Some of these developments may be significant for a potential conflict over Taiwan. This is stated in a report by the American Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS).
– Specifically, the Central Design Bureau “Rubin” transferred 12 batches of materials with a total value of over $80 million to Chinese military structures and shipbuilding companies from 2015 to 2023. They related to the design of non-nuclear submarines.
– Russian engineers also helped test noise reduction technologies for Chinese submarines, particularly during cavitation research. The Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute of Russia transferred models of aircraft and results of aerodynamic tests to the Chinese Norinco corporation at least nine times from 2022 to 2024. Payments for the documentation on the “flying wing” model were received by “Rosoboronexport.” Researchers consider this an indication of the military purpose of the works.
– Another area of cooperation is air assault control systems. The Russian Scientific Research Institute of Communication and Control Systems developed the “Sword” system for the Chinese army, which was planned to be installed on Dongfeng armored vehicles and adapted to Chinese satellite navigation BeiDou. According to C4ADS, the Russian holding “Element” also organized the assembly of microelectronics in China, although the military purpose of these microchips has not been established.
– Another Russian company, “StankoMashStroy,” planned to establish production in Xiangyang, China, of five-axis machines that can be used in the production of complex weapons.
5. Russian military product manufacturers are relocating production to China due to sanctions.
– Russian enterprises connected to the military-industrial complex have begun relocating part of their production to China to maintain access to industrial capacities and continue supplying products.
– The microelectronics manufacturer “Element,” which supplies components to Russian defense enterprises and has been under U.S. sanctions since 2022, started assembling microchips in China in 2024. The company registered at least four subsidiaries there.
– The machine tool factory “StankoMashStroy,” which has been under U.S. sanctions since 2023, also planned to relocate part of its production to China. In 2023, the enterprise announced its intention to establish joint machine tool production with the Chinese Baoji Machine Tool Group.
– At the same time, the cooperation may strengthen Russia’s technological dependence on China. In the long term, Chinese companies may gain more advantages: using Russian developments and experience to create their own weapons and ousting Russian manufacturers from international markets.
On the cover: Equipment for Russian Arctic LNG projects that came under sanctions may find a second life in the “Polar LNG” project in Alaska. The liquefaction plant, located in Nikiski, will process, store, and transport up to 20 million tons of LNG per year. Illustration: Alaska Gasline Development Corporation.
