Information regarding the current losses of Russia due to sanctions as of 04.10.2026.
1. Ukrainian defense forces struck the positions of Russian operational-tactical missile complexes “Iskander” in the Bryansk region.
– Additionally, objects of Russian military infrastructure were struck in the Samara region and the Black Sea. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that on October 2 and the night of October 3, Ukrainian military also targeted the Donetsk area, where storage, preparation, and launching sites for strike drones were located.
– A Russian military command post in the area of Nova Tavolzhanka in the Belgorod region, a crossing over the Mokri Yaly River near Novotroitske in Donetsk, a repair base in the Hromivka area of the Kherson region, and a logistics warehouse in the Voznesenivka area of the Belgorod region were also struck.
2. Russian military expenditures may exceed $1 trillion by the end of 2029.
– Russia has already spent 58.3 trillion rubles on the army and arms purchases in the first five years of the war, or about $692 billion. If the current pace continues, total military spending could exceed $1 trillion by the end of 2029.
– According to Janis Kluge from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Russian military expenditures amounted to 14.336 trillion rubles in 2024, 16.687 trillion in 2025, and 10.687 trillion rubles for just the first half of 2026.
– The budget project envisions about 50 trillion rubles for defense spending in 2027–2029. Total military expenditures for this period could bring the accumulated sum to 75.5 trillion rubles, or $907 billion, in 2028 and to 92.1 trillion rubles, or about $1.1 trillion, in 2029.
– Meanwhile, funding for civil sectors is being reduced. In 2027, 4.62 trillion rubles are planned for the national economy, 6.65 trillion for social policy, 1.82 trillion for healthcare, and 1.78 trillion for education.
– To cover military expenses, Russia is increasing borrowing and tax burdens. The federal budget deficit is estimated at 7.3 trillion rubles for 2026, and the government plans to raise 6.1 trillion rubles in loans for 2027.
3. Russia is “building a new shadow fleet” to avoid sanctions.
– Russia is commissioning new gas carriers that can be used to transport liquefied natural gas through the Arctic amid Western sanctions. At least two new gas carriers — “Alexey Kosygin” and “Konstantin Posyet” — were put into operation at the beginning of 2026.
– The vessels are approximately 300 meters long, have a displacement of 127,555 tons, and can pass through ice up to two meters thick.
– Their characteristics indicate the possibility of use on Arctic routes for LNG transportation. According to monitoring services, “Alexey Kosygin” is near Chantou Island in the East China Sea.
– Another gas carrier — “Pyotr Stolypin” — was also put into operation this year. The UK included these vessels in a new sanctions package aimed at Russian maritime exports.
– The EU has already imposed sanctions on approximately 670 vessels associated with Russia’s evasion of restrictions. The UK states that its sanctions cover about 600 tankers, which the government estimates are used to finance Russia’s military machine.
– According to the UK government, international sanctions have already deprived Russia of nearly $500 billion.
4. Putin proposed selling Lukoil’s foreign assets to investors linked to Trump’s circle.
– During negotiations with the USA to end the war in Ukraine, Putin proposed to finalize the deal for the sale of Lukoil’s foreign assets. The main contender for these assets is a consortium of investors linked to Donald Trump’s donor and American negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
– Putin raised the issue of the deal on September 5 during a meeting at the Kremlin with Witkoff and Kushner. He proposed the sale as a way to show Russians that Moscow can do business with the USA again.
– American representatives agreed to explore this possibility, also seeing it as a way to improve relations with the Kremlin and reduce global energy prices.
– The assets in question include Lukoil’s oil fields, refineries, and gas stations outside of Russia. At the beginning of 2026, the company valued its international assets at approximately $20 billion.
– The deal requires approval from both the USA and the Kremlin. Washington’s approval would allow the acquired assets to be removed from under American sanctions, which could significantly increase their value.
– The main contender currently is a consortium led by American billionaire Todd Boehly, who in 2025 donated $1 million to the MAGA Inc. committee and another $1 million to Trump’s inauguration. The consortium also includes Qatari businessmen Mutaz and Ramez Al-Khayyat, who are partners with Kushner and Ivanka Trump in an elite resort project in Albania.
– Among the potential investors is also a fund from Abu Dhabi linked to Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Tahnoun’s structures have ties with the Trump family businesses and Kushner’s investment company.
– The deal is also planned to be supported by the US government through the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). Meanwhile, the NYT did not find evidence that Witkoff or Kushner would personally benefit financially from the sale.
– The possible intertwining of business ties of potential buyers with Trump’s circle has already raised questions about the choice of investors.
– Representatives of Trump and the potential deal participants deny any personal financial interest of the American negotiators. The USA imposed sanctions on Lukoil a year ago, after which the company began selling off international assets.
– In January, a preliminary agreement to purchase them was reached by the American Carlyle fund, but the final approval of the deal was delayed. During this time, Boehly’s consortium emerged as the leading contender.
5. In Hungary, a criminal case against Orban is being prepared.
– The new government of Hungary may launch a criminal case against former Prime Minister Viktor Orban over the detention of Ukrainian couriers transporting gold and cash worth €70 million.
– In March, a unit of Hungary’s counter-terrorism service detained a vehicle carrying money and gold bars. It was a regular run from Vienna conducted by couriers of the state Savings Bank. During interrogations, they were held for hours in handcuffs with their eyes covered.
– Orban then stated that the money might have been used for covert financing of the Hungarian opposition by Ukraine.
– The next day, the Ukrainian couriers were released, and the money was returned to Ukraine. After the change of government in Hungary, this episode became one of the potential directions for investigating Orban’s government’s actions.
– The new government has launched a campaign to dismantle the political and corruption system that was established during his 16-year rule.
