Information on the current losses of the RF due to sanctions as of 09/30/2026.
1. Russia exports record volumes of oil due to a processing crisis.
– Due to problems with oil refining, Russia has begun exporting more and more crude oil abroad. In the week leading up to September 27, exports rose to a record 3.99 million barrels per day.
– Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and the ban on the export of gasoline and diesel are forcing Russian companies to send surplus raw materials abroad, which are increasingly difficult to process within the country. High global prices currently provide Russia with additional revenue.
– Due to disruptions in oil supplies in the Middle East, Brent remains above $100 per barrel, and prices for Russian Urals and ESPO have reached their highest in more than three months. The value of oil exported from Russian ports last week is estimated at $2.75 billion — $180 million more than the previous week, marking a record since the start of the full-scale war.
– However, this result is largely offset by a collapse in oil product exports. Russia has increased its crude oil export forecast for 2026 by approximately 150,000 barrels per day, while reducing the oil product supply forecast by about 500,000 barrels per day.
– The ban on the export of diesel and gasoline is also expected to remain at least until October. The average gross revenue from oil exports for the four weeks leading up to September 27 increased to $2.39 billion per week — $290 million more than the previous period.
– However, continuous strikes on Russian refineries deprive Russia of the ability to convert a significant portion of raw materials into more expensive oil products, meaning more and more oil has to be sold as raw material.
2. Russia’s oil refining sets anti-records, industry holds on to defense orders.
– Russia’s oil refining continues to decline at record rates. In August, oil product output fell by 17.8% year-on-year, and over eight months — by 10.3%.
– The oil product output index dropped to 78–80 points from the 2019 base, lower than in 2020, when due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the collapse of the OPEC+ agreement, it fell to 88 points.
– Oil refining, which accounts for 17.7% of the added value of the manufacturing industry, has effectively nullified its growth. Without this sector, manufacturing would have grown by 2.2%, and the entire industry by 1%.
– From June to August, oil refining took away 3.5 percentage points from manufacturing growth and 1.8 points from the overall industrial index.
– The reason for the decline is not reduced demand, but the shutdown of refineries due to damage and stops. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, oil refining is expected to decrease by 8.7% annually, and industrial production by 0.2%. To achieve this, from September to December, factories must increase output by 17.5% compared to the August level.
– If production remains at the August level, the annual decline in oil refining will reach 13.5%, and industrial production will decrease by 0.6%. Meanwhile, the decline has deepened since spring: after -8.9% in April, it was -13.4% in May and -21.3% in June.
– The growth of the manufacturing industry is primarily driven by sectors related to defense orders: production of other transport equipment increased by 18.6%, finished metal products by 11%, electronics by 4.8%.
– At the same time, civilian sectors such as construction materials production, metallurgy, paper, and chemical industries are contracting. The slump in oil refining is already hitting Russia’s export revenues and tax receipts, while the industry increasingly relies on state military orders.
3. Russia will cut social and civilian spending in favor of record military expenditures.
– In 2027, Russia will reduce funding for social policy by 7%, education by 6%, healthcare by 6.8%, and spending on the “national economy,” which includes roads, infrastructure, and subsidies by 7.4% compared to the initial plan.
– Meanwhile, military spending will rise to a record 17.1 trillion rubles — 27% more than the initially planned 13.5 trillion rubles. This is the highest since the full-scale war against Ukraine began.
– To finance the increased military spending, Russian authorities are using reserves, increasing borrowing, and raising taxes.
– At the same time, servicing the national debt in 2027 will become 21.6% more expensive and will account for 9.4% of all budget expenditures. By 2029, this share will increase to 10.6%.
4. Russia extended the export restrictions on diesel fuel and gas oils for direct producers until October 31, 2026.
– The decision is explained by the need to stabilize the domestic fuel market due to increased demand during the harvest season.
– The overall ban on fuel exports from Russia is in effect until January 31, 2027, but there was previously an exemption for producers of diesel, marine fuel, and gas oils until September 30.
– Now it has been extended for another month, which limits the opportunities for Russian producers to export fuel.
5. Russia intensifies pressure on European business, threatening new asset seizures.
– Russia is expanding its campaign to transfer the assets of foreign companies, primarily European, under temporary management. In September, the assets of Nestlé, Metro AG, and Auchan came under the control of the Russian authorities.
– In the Russian government, such actions are called “asymmetric measures” in response to EU sanctions. Sources in the government say that the next targets could be the Russian divisions of Italy’s UniCredit and Austria’s Raiffeisen, urging companies to “beware.”
– Since the beginning of the full-scale war, Russia has transferred 135 structures with foreign participation, mostly European, under temporary management. At the same time, large American companies have not yet become targets of such measures.
6. The US has imposed sanctions against two Russian companies for helping Iran with weapons.
– The US has imposed sanctions against 13 individuals and entities accused of assisting Iran in acquiring weapons and components for their production.
– The list includes two Russian companies — the carrier “MG-Flot,” operating in the Caspian Sea, and “Yakovlev Design Bureau,” which develops airplanes, helicopters, and drones. Restrictions are also imposed on companies and citizens from China, Hong Kong, and Pakistan.
– According to the US Treasury, they have assisted Tehran in obtaining weapons and components for production. Washington stated that the sanctions are aimed at complicating Iran’s recovery of weapons production programs and increasing the cost for those helping it circumvent restrictions.
7. The European Union has begun work on the practical application of visa restrictions for Russian participants in the war against Ukraine, including former ones.
– The legal basis for the ban was laid in the 21st sanctions package, and the European Commission is to prepare recommendations for its application. Simultaneously, the EU is discussing broader restrictions on issuing tourist and short-term visas to Russian citizens.
– A change to the Visa Code is being discussed, which would allow for restricting visa issuance to entire categories of applicants, including citizens of certain countries or people undertaking non-essential travel. Currently, applications are generally reviewed individually.
– The European Commission plans to prepare proposals for reviewing the Visa Code at the beginning of 2027. Further restrictions for Russians may be discussed on October 1st at a meeting of EU interior ministers.
8. Searches were conducted in Germany and Austria on two businessmen suspected of circumventing EU sanctions by supplying cars to Russia.
– According to the Kaiserslautern prosecutor’s office, from autumn 2022 to the end of 2024, they could have supplied 53 cars and six semi-trailers through Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Georgia.
– The investigation was conducted jointly by Germany, Austria, and Belgium. The assets of the suspects have been frozen for approximately €7 million.
– During the searches, two expensive cars, €85,000 in cash in Vienna, and €278,000 in accounts across three countries were confiscated.
