Saturday evening, and thus it’s time to read the analysis of another attack before the weekend. And this can be considered a unique attack 4.0.
Today I will try to be even shorter, because much has been described in previous analyses. Yesterday’s precise attack on 300 Shaheds and 2 Kindzhals was described yesterday. It was an operation on two targets in the Kropyvnytskyi region, most probably at the Kanatove airfield. The Shaheds were the start, the finale was for the two Kindzhals.
Today’s uniqueness lies in the unused ballistics. Yes, there were 2 Zircons, but they launched them, like the rest of the missiles, towards the western part of Ukraine. And to the attacks on power plants, they added electricity transmission substations.
They didn’t use ballistics because its range of 500 km doesn’t allow hitting western targets. And simply to burn them against the PAC-3 Patriot missiles near Kyiv is not permitted by reserve. So, now it can be stated that they don’t have unlimited missiles. This is confirmed by the fact that on January 19, missile fragments of X-101 with a manufacturing date of 2026 were found. And it was only 19 days into this 2026 year. Straight from the conveyor to Ukraine. They are in a hurry while there are frosts.
Regarding the rest, Calibers and other sinister things, they all flew over western Ukraine. Two power plants in the Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions were hit, many homes are without power. Along the way, there were damages to large substations at 750 and 330 kV.
This is another fact that another task of such attacks is to divide society. Under the slogans on the internet and the formation of public opinion “Kyiv under the dome, and the rest of the cities without light and heat” fly all Russian missiles.
The ballistic Iskander won’t reach the distance (500 km from the Bryansk region), a large number of X-101 missiles cannot be provided since Pavutyna, so carriers of Calibers were sent into the open sea. Under a huge threat of getting hit by our Magura…
In the end, today’s strike was again on critical infrastructure. Just another combination of missiles to cause more damage to the western part of Ukraine, and the impacted substations to transmit even less electricity to the central part of Ukraine.
The only thing that can be compared with today’s strike to yesterday’s (yesterday’s strike near Kropyvnytskyi and today’s destruction of the Roshen logistics hub) are very precise strikes that can be called a transition to spring-summer targets. And this is a sign that they are indicating the duration of the war. That they can and will continue for a long time. But! To show and to be able are different things, we are aware. The call sign of the leader “Bluff” did not appear on the international stage for nothing.
Yes, they have plans for the tasks and targets of long-range strikes that differ depending on the season. Winter: electricity and heat generation, and summer: defense industry factories, logistics points, equipment clusters, fuel, etc.
And today’s strike on Roshen (where according to their logic military equipment, drones, and marshmallows with candy are made) and yesterday’s on Kropyvnytskyi – are precisely spring-summer targets.
Now the conclusions.
1. They stopped depleting our PAC-3 missiles for Patriots. We ended up having more. But not hitting Kyiv with ballistics twice is already a sign of weakness, indicating a shortage of missiles. The next barrage should show “Kuzkina’s mother” using ballistics to show they have no problems with it.
2. Zircons. They turned out to be rare. When they hit Kyiv with two missiles out of ignorance (we didn’t shoot them down), next time they launched four immediately. But we shot them down. Knowing that there are no Patriots in Western Ukraine, they could also fire 4 Zircons from both existing launchers; they wouldn’t be shot down due to hypersonic speed. But they struck with two. Because they have no more, they need to reserve for other strikes.
3. X-101 missiles. 21 missiles were launched, we shot down 14. Where did the 22nd missile go? Again, did it not detonate, or did it fall into the Caspian? 🙂 It hasn’t happened for a long time, meaning issues with them have returned.
4. Today, substations and power plants were heavily affected. The energy system is under great stress. It’s hard for us too, but messages cheer us up a lot, that according to some official survey 68% of Ukrainians are ready to endure all the negatives due to attacks until spring, so as not to accept terms of surrendering some Ukrainian territories. I am proud of you!
Illustrative photo: DTEC
