Night attack. A brief analysis, as there are a few interesting details.
It was a sort of Large Combined Attack (LCA), but with low ballistic potential. Although the Air Force stopped indicating the number of ballistic missiles, it was possible to follow them online. I will describe a positive aspect of changing such a report by the AF a bit below.
First, the main details.
Few Zircons – everyone saw only two falls. They are significantly different from other ballistics. A clearly formed bright plasma area is visible, which is created when falling at such speeds (approximately 5 Machs).
A total of at least 14 missiles in 12 hours. This is very few for an LCA, as recent attacks had more than 20 ballistic missiles of all types. Even in Large Ballistic Acts (when there were only ballistics without cruise missiles), there were more than 20. In different waves, from different directions. Today, however, there were not many directions, nor ballistics.
If you look at the two consecutive LBAs at the beginning of the month (August 1 and 4), the attack period was clearly extended until today. And when there was an attack on our warehouses, I called it emotional, because it was very soon after the previous attack, it was unplanned. There was a lot of hate, but such a long period still confirms my words. Resources for this attack were taken from other LCAs, hence the increased period between attacks. Perhaps, because of it today too, fewer missiles allocated for the month were left. Explained regarding the extended period.
Now regarding this attack. I always analyze when I put myself in the place of the roosters. If I were to strike. And I would not have made this night’s attack. And long before yesterday, I would have planned an LCA for August 22-23. A day or two before Independence Day, so that the world wouldn’t see a picture of my treachery and terrorism, that I covered Kyiv with fire on Independence Day itself. And the day before that, there wouldn’t be such headlines. An ordinary attack, not tied to dates. (And that’s what they do! Look at last year’s shelling on Independence Day, Constitution Day, and other national holidays). To launch an attack before such holidays so that there would still be mourning and a ban on public events for a few days. That’s how a proper rooster should execute attacks.
Therefore, another LBA should occur before Independence Day, in a few days. Maybe that’s why they saved on ballistics and Zircons today.
| The only thing added to the attack at the last moment was Kalibrs from the Black Sea. I specifically used the video of this salvo as an illustration for this post. No one had filmed such a close salvo of EIGHT Kalibrs from one ship for a while. Yes, one, because the perfect timing between all missiles does not work out when salvos come from two carriers.
Why was it added? Because last week we hit 4 ships in Novorossiysk, and satellite images clearly show impacts on two Admirals – right on the Kalibr launch tubes. There was even some material in the news that the ships are out of action for repairs until the end of the year. Although replacing the universal launchers ZS 14 doesn’t require that much time. Perhaps the deck was also deformed. Then yes, it takes much more time. But just last night there was a Kalibr salvo, and most likely the salvo was from another undamaged ship, not the hit Admirals (one from the Buyan-M project), the Black Sea Fleet commander just had to show (both to us and to his leadership) that the ability to launch Kalibrs still exists. |
And this is the only excuse so far as to why the largely submarine fleet has not yet been disbanded. That’s what it’s like to serve in a fleet that doesn’t leave the harbor and has two tasks – not to disappear by the end of the war and occasionally boost with Kalibr WKA 🙂.
And finally, why it’s still positive that the Air Force closed the info on ballistic missiles. It’s obvious that there’s no point in giving info that 0 were shot down – demoralization, enemy joy. But if we shot down 3-4 missiles from the salvo – for the population, it’s still a small number, but for the enemy? Why let them know which algorithm worked and which didn’t? Or if we find the “key” to intercept them, we’ll intercept, and let them change nothing because they don’t know what made it. Or change, but it will worsen their situation. The fog of war here is much better than a report on another 0 ballistic missiles shot down 😎.
P.S. I forgot to add that this is another “nervous-anxious” type of attack. The enemy coordinates attack actions strictly to “round” times. At 0:00, a ballistic salvo, by the first hour, the launch of Kalibrs, at 2:02 a REPORT on the launch of cruise missiles, at 3:06 another report on the launch of new waves of CR, at 4:06 a group of CR directed towards Dnipro, and at 5:03 the next groups headed to the center of Ukraine. All around these hours to keep the population anxious all night. Every hour. Just before – at 1:00, 2:00 – there was still a ballistic salvo. This time they saved, so they kept anxiety only with messages to stay on guard.
And I wrote all night about these timings in my telegram to understand the logic and show it to you. It makes writing analysis easier during the day 😉.
