Information on the current losses of the Russian Federation due to sanctions as of 16.07.2026.
1. This morning, the Russian Engels, home to the strategic airfield “Engels-2,” one of the key bases of Russia’s long-range aviation, from which Tu-95MS and Tu-160 bombers regularly launch missile strikes on Ukraine, came under attack.
– Residents of Engels and Saratov heard a series of explosions, experienced power outages, air defense systems were active, and drones were detected in the sky. Temporary restrictions were also imposed on the operation of Saratov airport.
– The “Engels-2” airfield is the main base of Russia’s strategic aviation, housing regiments of Tu-95MS and Tu-160 aircraft. The base is capable of accommodating over 30 strategic bombers, but after a series of Ukrainian attacks, Russia regularly transfers aircraft between Engels, Olenya, Belaya, and Ukrainka airfields to complicate their targeting.
2. One of Russia’s largest oil refining and petrochemical plants has shut down following a UAV attack.
– The “Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat” oil refining and petrochemical complex in Bashkortostan completely halted the processing of oil and gas condensate following an attack by Ukrainian drones on July 14. Both primary processing units were damaged and rendered inoperative — the AVT-6 with a capacity of 17.1 thousand tons per day and the AVT-4 with a capacity of 11.4 thousand tons per day. Secondary processing units and inter-workshop communications were also damaged.
– It is estimated that restoring the plant’s operations may take from a few weeks to several months.
– “Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat” is Gazprom’s largest petrochemical enterprise and one of Russia’s largest oil refineries. In 2024, the plant processed 7.2 million tons of oil (about 2.7% of Russia’s total oil refining), producing 2.5 million tons of diesel fuel, 1.5 million tons of gasoline, and 700 thousand tons of fuel oil.
– Additionally, the plant produces polyethylene, butyl alcohols, ammonia, urea, and other petrochemical products. “Salavat” has become the fifth large Russian oil refinery to halt operations in July. Previously, the Syzran, Saratov, Omsk refineries, and “Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez” ceased processing following attacks or incidents.
3. Russia’s budget deficit in 2026 may exceed the plan by more than 1 trillion rubles.
– The federal budget deficit of Russia in 2026 may be significantly greater than the official forecast. According to data from the government portal of the Russian budget system, budget expenditures may exceed the approved plan by more than 1 trillion rubles (about 12.85 billion dollars).
– It is expected that federal budget expenditures in 2026 will reach 45.11 trillion rubles instead of the legally stipulated 44.07 trillion rubles. Meanwhile, the revenue forecast remains unchanged — 40.28 trillion rubles. As a result, the budget deficit may increase to 4.83 trillion rubles instead of the planned 3.79 trillion rubles (1.6% of GDP).
– Problems with state finances are already manifesting this year. According to the Ministry of Finance, in the first half of 2026, the federal budget deficit reached 5.73 trillion rubles, or 2.5% of GDP, which is 1.7 times more than the same period last year.
– The Minister of Finance acknowledged that the final budget deficit will exceed the official target, though he claimed that this supposedly would not require a substantial increase in domestic borrowing. At the same time
– The Ministry of Finance postponed the achievement of a zero primary budget deficit to 2029, which was previously considered one of the key benchmarks of budget policy.
– In 2025, Russia’s federal budget deficit already nearly quintupled the initial plan, reaching 5.7 trillion rubles (2.6% of GDP) — the highest level since the pandemic.
4. The US “hellish sanctions” bill crashed the Russian stock market.
– The Russian stock market resumed its decline after a brief respite. The Moscow Exchange index fell to 2109.6 points during trading — the lowest level since December 19, 2022. Since the beginning of the year, the Moex index has already lost 23%.
– Among the biggest losses: “Gazprom” — -2% (shares also hit a low since 2008); Sberbank — -1.5%; VTB — -3.8%; “Rosneft” — -2.9%; “Aeroflot” — -2.6%; “Severstal” — -4%; VK — -7% following sanctions against the state messenger MAX.
– The main reason for the sell-off was a new US sanctions bill that envisages a massive increase in pressure on Russia. The document includes, in particular, 100-percent tariffs for countries that continue to purchase Russian oil, primarily China and India.
– Additionally, the bill provides for the possibility of imposing sanctions against the Russian Central Bank, the largest Russian banks, as well as against the “shadow fleet,” oil transportation, and the “Yamal LNG” and “Arctic LNG” projects.
– Even after reducing the proposed tariffs from 500% to 100%, the risks to Russian oil exports remain extremely high. After all, China and India account for about 90% of Russia’s oil exports, and any secondary sanctions could significantly restrict Russia’s key source of foreign currency revenue.
5. Gazprom shares fell to a 17-year low after the de facto failure of gas negotiations with China.
– The shares of “Gazprom” on the Moscow Exchange dropped to 90.21 rubles—the lowest level since November 2008. The reason was the information that China effectively suspended negotiations on the construction of the “Power of Siberia-2” pipeline, on which the Kremlin had placed key hopes for replacing the lost European market.
– Since the beginning of July, the company’s shares have depreciated by 11%, since the beginning of the year—by 27%, and compared to the peak in the fall of 2021, “Gazprom” has lost nearly 80% of its market capitalization. Currently, the company is valued at only 2.15 trillion rubles (about 28 billion dollars)—36 times less than promised by the head of “Gazprom” who once predicted capitalization at the level of 1 trillion dollars.
6. Business activity in the Russian economy has fallen to the minimum level since the first months of the war.
– A fuel crisis, caused by strikes on Russian refineries, has collapsed business activity in Russia to the lowest level since spring 2022. The Central Bank’s business climate indicator, calculated based on a survey of 12,300 enterprises, dropped to minus 3.6 points in June compared to 0.9 points in May. The zero mark separates growth from decline.
– According to the CB, both the assessments of the current situation and business expectations for the future sharply deteriorated in June. The indicators became the worst since April 2022 in almost all sectors of the economy and among enterprises of all sizes.
– At the same time, after five months of decline, inflationary expectations of businesses began to rise again. The expected rate of price growth increased from 4.3% to 5.8% annually. This is primarily due to the fuel crisis.
– In May, oil product production in Russia fell by 13.5%, which was a consequence of strikes on refineries. The fuel shortage hit the mining sector, logistics, agriculture, trade, and services.
– According to the Central Bank, the largest contribution to the decline in business activity was made by enterprises in transportation, trade, services, and mining. Problems were exacerbated against the backdrop of a general economic slowdown.
– According to the Ministry of Economic Development, between January and May, economic growth was only 0.2% annually. Resources are increasingly being redistributed in favor of the military-industrial complex, while other sectors of the economy face funding shortages, high rates, and rising costs.
7. Russia has begun asking India for additional gasoline supplies due to the refinery crisis.
– The largest Russian oil companies have approached Indian refineries requesting an increase in gasoline supplies after Ukrainian strikes disabled a significant part of Russia’s refining capacity.
– Nearly 40% of Russia’s oil refining capacity will not be able to restart operations for at least two months, barring further attacks. Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Lukoil have reached out to their Indian partners. Supplies are planned through international traders.
– Meanwhile, representatives of three Indian state-owned refineries stated they do not have surplus gasoline for export. At least one batch of Indian gasoline is already en route to Russia. According to Kpler, the tanker Agni delivered 42,000 tons of gasoline from India’s Vadinar port, after which the cargo was transferred off the coast of Egypt to the vessel Garnet, which is expected to arrive in Russia by the end of July. Another tanker, Varg, is also transporting gasoline from India for further transshipment on its way to Russia.
– If Ukrainian strikes continue to reduce Russian refining capacity, Moscow will also start seeking diesel fuel supplies from India.
– The situation is unprecedented: India remains the largest buyer of Russian oil transported by sea, but now Russia is forced to import finished fuel from India due to a shortage caused by strikes on its own refineries.
8. Greece blocked sanctions against Russian LNG to protect the business of its shipping magnate.
– Greece opposed the implementation of EU sanctions that include a ban on the transshipment and supply of Russian LNG to third countries in order to protect the shipping company Dynagas of Greek billionaire Georgios Prokopiou.
– Due to disagreements, EU countries could not agree on the 21st package of sanctions against Russia after three days of negotiations and postponed the decision for at least a week. Along with this, the review of the price cap mechanism for Russian oil was also postponed.
– The Greek ambassador to the EU stated that imposing sanctions would effectively “destroy” Dynagas, whose specialized gas carriers transport LNG from the Russian “Yamal LNG” project. Several diplomatic sources confirmed that protecting this company was the main reason for Athens’ objections.
– The ban on trading Russian LNG was agreed upon by EU countries back in the fall of 2025, but Greece has consistently opposed its inclusion in the sanctions package since then.
– The delay in adopting the new sanctions package means that Russia can still use European shipping companies to export LNG to global markets, allowing continued foreign currency revenues from one of its key energy sectors.
9. Argentina is reducing cooperation with Rosatom.
– Argentina effectively ceased cooperation with “Rosatom” in the field of peaceful nuclear energy after President Javier Milei took office. Joint nuclear energy projects between the countries are no longer being implemented, and Argentina has abandoned plans to purchase Russian nuclear reactors and nuclear fuel. Meanwhile, the strategic partnership agreement signed in 2018 formally remains in effect.
– Before the change of power, the parties discussed the construction of land-based and floating nuclear power plants, as well as the possibility of building power units with VVER-1200 reactors. In 2019, there were even searches for a site for a future nuclear power plant, but the project was postponed due to the economic crisis in Argentina.
– Upon assuming office, Javier Milei reoriented the country towards cooperation with the United States in the field of nuclear energy. The government announced the privatization of the state company Nucleoeléctrica Argentina, signed a contract with the American-Argentine company Meitner Energy for the construction of a small modular reactor ACR-300 worth $1.2 billion, and joined the American FIRST program.
– The Argentine embassy stated that the country is capable of independently meeting its nuclear energy needs thanks to its own technologies and uranium reserves.
– The loss of Argentine projects was another blow to “Rosatom,” which, after the start of the full-scale war, is increasingly facing a reduction in international presence and intensified competition from Western companies.
