Information on the current losses of Russia due to sanctions as of 26.06.2026.
1. On the night of June 26, Ukrainian drones struck in the Tula region.
– The main target was the “Azot” chemical plant in Novomoskovsk. Explosions and drone flights lasted several hours, and after the attack, residents reported a sharp smell of ammonia in the air and power outages.
– “Azot” is one of Russia’s largest chemical plants, producing ammonia, nitric acid, methanol, acetic acid, and mineral fertilizers. Some of its products are used for the production of explosives used in Russia’s military-industrial complex.
– NASA’s satellite monitoring system for fires also detected a fire at the Novomoskovsk CHPP, which provides heat and hot water to more than half of the city.
– This is not the first strike on the enterprise. On June 14, the “Azot” plant was also attacked by Ukrainian drones. At that time, a fire broke out on the premises, and the Russian authorities reported damage to the production infrastructure.
2. The largest oil refinery of Lukoil — “Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez” (NORSI) — stopped processing oil after an attack by Ukrainian drones.
– During the strike on June 24, the primary processing unit AVT-5, which provides about 25% of the enterprise’s production capacity, was damaged. After this, NORSI ceased the sale of wholesale batches of gasoline and diesel fuel on the St. Petersburg Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange.
– The plant is trying to partially compensate for the losses using other units, but it is impossible to completely replace the damaged capacity. NORSI is the fourth largest refinery in Russia and the second-largest in gasoline production. The enterprise can process 15 million tons of oil per year and produce about 5 million tons of gasoline, so its shutdown exacerbates the fuel shortage in the domestic market.
– This is the fifth large Russian refinery to halt operations in June due to Ukrainian strikes. Previously, the Moscow refinery “Gazprom Neft,” whose repairs might last until 2027, “TANECO” refinery of “Tatneft,” Kuibyshev refinery, and Volgograd refinery ceased processing.
3. Strikes on refineries have dropped oil product production in Russia to the lowest in over 10 years.
– Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are increasingly impacting the fuel industry. According to Rosstat, in May, petroleum production in Russia decreased by 13.5% compared to the same month last year — this is the deepest annual decline since at least 2015.
– For the period from January to May, production declined by 4.9%. The worsening situation coincided with a sharp escalation in Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. While production was down by 9.2% in April, the pace of decline accelerated even further in May. By estimates, since the beginning of 2026, Ukrainian drones have attacked Russian refineries at least 47 times. In comparison, throughout 2025, there were 82 such attacks recorded.
– For Russia, the problem lies not only in the damage itself but also in the increasingly difficult restoration of enterprises. Modern technological installations are being struck, whose repair requires imported equipment and components, access to which is restricted by Western sanctions. This significantly delays the restoration of production.
– According to sources, in the first half of June, gasoline production in Russia had decreased by 15% year-on-year and by 9% compared to the first half of May.
– Regular strikes are gradually exhausting Russia’s ability to maintain the operation of the refining sector. Some enterprises experience repeated attacks — for instance, the Ryazan refinery has been attacked 15 times since the beginning of the war.
4. Russian industry has returned to decline, despite Kremlin demands to ensure economic growth.
– According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in May 2026, industrial production decreased by 0.7% year-on-year after brief growth in March and April.
– The situation has worsened most in the mining sector: the decline accelerated to 2.7% year-on-year — nearly eight times compared to April. Growth in the manufacturing industry has practically halted, slowing from 3.1% to 0.5%.
– Overall, for the January-May period, 20 out of the 28 industries monitored by Rosstat are in recession. One of the main reasons has been the sharp fall in petroleum production following Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries.
– In May, petroleum output plunged by 13.5% — the steepest drop since at least 2015.
– At the same time, metallurgical production decreased by 12.8%, and clothing production once again entered a decline. By estimates, already 71.1% of Russia’s economy showed negative dynamics in the first quarter of 2026, and GDP decreased by 0.63% compared to the previous quarter after seasonal adjustment.
– Mineral extraction has reverted to 2015 levels, while construction, real estate operations, and professional activities also continue to decline.
– The only sectors that continue to grow are those financed by the state or directly serving military needs.
5. The Russian parliament approved tax changes to address the fuel shortage problem.
– Russia is preparing to begin importing gasoline from India as it seeks to overcome a fuel shortage that emerged following a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries.
– Relevant amendments to the Tax Code provide for the introduction of state subsidies for oil companies that will purchase gasoline abroad.
– According to the bill, the amount of compensation will be determined based on the indicative price of gasoline on the Indian market and the cost of its delivery from Indian ports. The document has already been supported by the Russian State Duma’s Budget and Tax Committee.
– The paradox of the situation is that India is the largest buyer of Russian oil. In June 2026, its import of Russian oil reached a record 2.66 million barrels per day. After processing, part of this oil is exported as petroleum products, including gasoline, which may now return to Russia.
– Another issue is that Indian gasoline contains about 20% ethanol, while Russian standards allow only 10%. This may require additional adaptation of the fuel or regulatory framework.
– Despite being one of the world’s largest oil exporters, Russia is increasingly dependent on imports of finished petroleum products due to the loss of its own refining capacities.
6. The price of oil continues to decline.
– After the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the market is quickly shedding the supply deficit risks that previously supported high oil prices. On Friday, oil prices continued to fall: Brent became nearly 2% cheaper — down to $73.79 per barrel, and American WTI — to $70.48 per barrel.
– Both benchmark grades are heading for a weekly decline of about 8%. The main reason was the resumption of exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the increase in supplies from the Gulf countries.
– After the cessation of hostilities, tankers that were blocked in the region are massively leaving the Persian Gulf.
– Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco has resumed loading supertankers at the port of Ras Tanura, and Iran is actively increasing its oil exports, seeking to maximize the period of temporary U.S. sanction relief.
– As a result, the global market is receiving additional millions of barrels of oil. For Russia, this means a further deterioration in price conditions.
– Russian Urals oil is traditionally sold at a significant discount to Dated Brent, so with the decline in global prices, the value of Russian exports automatically decreases. According to market participants, with Brent falling to current levels, the estimated price of Urals at the moment approached $50 per barrel.
– The additional volume of Iranian and Middle Eastern oil also intensifies competition in Russia’s key Asian markets. This primarily concerns India and China, which are getting more alternative sources of supply and may demand even greater discounts from Moscow.
7. Russia is actively forming a “shadow” fleet of gas carriers, trying to prepare for new EU sanctions, which from January 1, 2027, will effectively close Russian LNG access to European terminals.
– This forces Moscow to seek alternative routes to maintain its liquefied natural gas exports. According to Windward, over the past five months, Russia has acquired six old gas carriers, which supplemented seven similar vessels acquired through anonymous structures in 2024–2025.
– In the first quarter of 2026, Russia acquired four gas carriers over 19 years old, which are already transporting Russian LNG. Together with ten new gas carriers transferred to Russian shipowners, the so-called “shadow” fleet for LNG transportation has grown to approximately 23 vessels.
– The creation of such a fleet indicates Russia’s growing logistical problems: sanctions are forcing the Kremlin to rely on old ships and opaque schemes, complicating LNG exports.
8. China, which remains the largest buyer of Russian lumber, has sharply reduced its imports.
– According to industry sources, from January to April 2026, Russian lumber supplies to China fell by 30% year-on-year to 2.6 million cubic meters. In monetary terms, exports decreased by 26%, and revenue fell to $603.7 million.
– Overall, the export of Russian lumber during this period decreased by 32% to approximately 4 million cubic meters.
– Despite the fact that in 2025, China accounted for almost half of all Russian lumber exports (11.2 million cubic meters), demand for Russian products continues to decline sharply.
– For Russia, this means a further deterioration in one of the few export directions that remained relatively stable after losing the European market.
