The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy used his American counterpart’s anniversary to congratulate him and discuss the upcoming meeting during the G7 summit. The very fact of this meeting speaks volumes. More than four years after the start of the large-scale Russian-Ukrainian war, the leading countries of the civilized world can neither ignore the continuation of this conflict nor resolve it. What’s more, the President of the United States is obviously interested in achieving at least a ceasefire on the Russian-Ukrainian front before the Congressional elections. After all, this would indicate significant accomplishments in foreign policy for the administration.
The question is whether this can realistically be achieved, and what Trump and Zelenskyy will discuss during their upcoming meeting in this regard. I have always said that ending the war primarily depends on Putin. If the aggressor ceases their military actions, there are no problems with either a truce or peace. Putin also talked to Trump and congratulated him on his birthday. And once again, it became evident that the Russian president is not interested in ending the war with Ukraine. He is interested in prolonging the war, destroying Ukraine, and humiliating Zelenskyy. This is evidenced by his reminder to the American president that he is willing to meet with the Ukrainian leader only in the Russian capital, essentially inviting Zelenskyy to surrender.
But nothing else was expected from Putin: the Russian president has long lived in his own reality and stubbornly ignores the fact that his troops are failing to achieve the expected results. Like any dictator, Putin is confident that time is on his side and that he can afford to spend as much time as necessary to achieve his planned goals.
However, now ending the war depends not only on Putin. It also depends on Zelenskyy, specifically on how the Ukrainian Armed Forces will operate in the coming months and whether they can destabilize Russia’s economic and energy potential.
We are already hearing news that was not present in the early years of this war. There is talk of a genuine fuel crisis, the beginning of the isolation of the occupied Crimea, threats to the land corridor Russia has established through occupied Ukrainian territories to Crimea, fires at military-industrial complex plants, and issues in Russian oil refining. I am confident that in the coming months and years, these problems for Russia will intensify.
The real question is how to prevent the destruction of Ukraine, the annihilation of Ukrainian infrastructure under Russian strikes, and the escalation of economic and demographic issues. Western allies, especially the United States, are indispensable here. The Ukrainian air defense system operates incredibly professionally, effectively neutralizing the majority of drone and missile attacks. However, it is powerless against ballistics when there are no missiles for the Patriots. This, incidentally, could have been an important topic for negotiations between Trump and Zelenskyy, to move Ukraine from the end of the queue for these missiles to the front.
If Russian attacks on Ukraine can be neutralized and Ukrainian attacks on Russia can be made more effective, this would be the key to quickly ending the war. If Russian strikes do not achieve their objectives, Russian troops do not advance, and at the same time, Ukrainian strikes cripple the Russian economy, even a stubborn figure like Putin will be forced to consider the need to cease hostilities. At least for the time required to prepare for a new war. Such a chance should also not be given—by transforming Ukraine into a fortress and further developing our country’s military-industrial complex, with the understanding that the fate of Ukraine is its defense from Russia. At least for the decades of dominance of this chauvinistic regime in the neighboring country.
However, if the United States cannot provide such support and, on the contrary, leans towards persuading Ukraine to make political concessions to Russia and abandon its territories, then the mutual exchange of strikes will simply destroy both countries and lead to no results. We will live in a war that can transition from an army war to a missile war, watching as ballistics turn Ukrainian cities into areas unfit for living. And this is certainly not the end that both Ukraine and the United States would want to achieve.
In the cover photo: Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump met for the first time in four months at the G7 summit in France. Photo: Volodymyr Zelenskyy/Telegram
