“Sanctions don’t work, Russia bypasses them.”
We often see such a phrase. It already contains a contradiction: if sanctions “don’t work,” why bypass them?
Meanwhile, the very process of “bypassing” sanctions significantly increases Russia’s costs.
Since the start of the full-scale war, Russia has spent about 10 trillion rubles ($130 billion) to bypass Western sanctions, but economic losses continue to grow. This is stated in a report by Latvian intelligence, which refers to internal, non-public assessments of the Russian agencies themselves.
Every year, Russia is forced to spend over $30 billion just to obtain goods that were previously cheaper and directly purchased before the war. These expenses do not account for losses from missed imports, so the real cost of sanctions is even higher.
Sanctions have already led to systemic degradation of key export sectors. From 2021 to 2025, iron ore deliveries fell by 40%, ferrous metals by 20%, chemical products by 35%, and timber and pulp by 50%.
And even according to internal forecasts by Russian officials, it will not be possible to compensate for these losses in the coming years. By 2030, Russian foreign trade will decrease by about 5% annually, and cumulative losses could reach $175 billion.
The biggest blow comes not only from direct sanctions but also from secondary restrictions against partners, trade barriers, and tariffs. Despite this, official rhetoric in Russia remains opposite: the authorities continue to claim “successful adaptation” of the economy.
At the same time, according to intelligence assessments, internal reports deliberately downplay the scale of the problems, leading to a distorted perception by the country’s leadership of the real state of affairs.
In the end, a paradoxical situation arises: the state spends enormous resources to bypass sanctions, loses key markets and revenues, but continues to move in the same direction, ignoring the accumulation of structural problems in the economy.
Structural problems have a property – they accumulate a destructive effect. And at some point, a system, strong on the outside, will collapse.
We must stand firm. Do everything for this.
And then there will be more. For us. But not for Russia.
